AFTER a couple of months resting his great mind, Danny Mercer (@OneDannyMercer) returns to WeLoveBetting this week. Here’s his always-brilliant Mercer Mix.
League Two leaders Burton take on play-off hopefuls Luton on Saturday and I’m very sweet on them landing the three points. Albion sit one point clear at the top and come into this match protecting a seven game unbeaten run. Luton on the other hand have been in awful form and they’ve gone from automatic promotion hopefuls to a side who look like they’ll just miss out on the play-offs.
The Kenilworth Road outfit have lost seven of their last eight league games and haven’t beaten a Top 4 side all season long. The three straight home defeats doesn’t bode well and they limped past lowly Tranmere on Easter Monday to record their first win since February.
Opponents Burton are a solid unit with just one defeat in their last 11 away league games. I watched these sides earlier in the season and Burton came out on top 1-0, they’re much improved since then and now have the exciting Abdenasser El Khayati in their ranks. I expect them to be too strong for Luton.
It’s Millwall v Watford on Saturday and I simply must back Troy Deeney at 8/5 to score. Deeney is on fire just now and sits three behind Daryl Murphy in the Championship goalscoring charts and will be eager to end the season on top of the pile.
Deeney is one of the major reasons why Watford have a great chance of taking the title and returning to the Premier League. He’s scored nine goals in his last 11 league games and has been particularly prolific against the weaker sides with 11 league goals picked off against the bottom five.
To be honest Deeney doesn’t have a great scoring record against Millwall, but he seems to come alive in the latter stages of the season. He notched four times in April 2012, April 2013 and indeed last April so don’t be surprised if he finds more before the month is over. Saturday gives him the ideal platform.
The top two in League One clash on Saturday and if Preston beat Bristol City it’s going to set up a great fight for the title. Simon Grayson’s side are in great form and with Joe Garner back fit I think they’ll win here and close the gap.
Preston have scored in every single home league game this season so I can’t see Bristol City keeping them quiet. City have looked shaky on their travels in recent months and are prone to looking vulnerable at the back against weaker sides.
North End have failed to find the net just twice this season in the league and both those games occurred in November when they were on an awful run of form with three defeats on the bounce. They’ve scored in their last 26 home league games and with the likes of Garner, Jermaine Beckford, Daniel Johnson and Paul Gallagher going forward I’m confident they can score at least twice.
Second Half Goals
Carlisle host Dagenham & Redbridge on Saturday and they’re in big trouble in League Two. Relegation is a live prospect and I get the impression they might need to take some risks to forge victories in these closing weeks of the season.
With their propensity to concede goals and with D&R’s Jamie Cureton in good form I think the Cumbrians will struggle to keep a clean sheet. Both teams are suspect at the back though and both teams to score in the second half at 12/5 looks value to me.
Carlisle have scored the most second half home goals this season with with 34 registered, while Dagenham are second in the most away goals scored in the second half with 34 also on the board. Those are strong stats supporting this bet, and when you factor in that Daggers games have produced the most second half goals out of all the teams in League One the bet stacks up well.
Gillingham host Bradford on Saturday and come into the game just six points clear of the relegation zone. They certainly need their top scorer Cody McDonald to remain in form and he’s crucial to them staying in the third tier.
McDonald has a quality record in a Gillingham shirt and is just one goal shy of equalling his tally from last season and I’m banking on him beating that with five games to spare. The 28 year old has scored nine goals in his last 19 league games and always seems to raise his game against the better sides. In fact 10 of his 16 league goals this season have come against sides in the Top 10.
He scored in this fixture in the last two seasons and with no goal in his last four home league games, he’s certainly due one on Saturday. I’ll back him to notch anytime at 9/5.
Luton v Burton – Burton to win (6/4 Betfred)
Millwall v Watford – Troy Deeney to score anytime (8/5 Bet365)
Preston v Bristol City – Preston to score Over 1.5 Goals (5/4 Coral)
Carlisle v Dagenham & Redbridge – Both Teams To Score In 2nd Half (12/5 William Hill)
Gillingham v Bradford – Cody McDonald to score anytime (9/5 Ladbrokes)
What do you reckon about Danny’s bets this weekend? Is he right to oppose Luton?
Give us your view in the comments box below.
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