DOWN to the last eight at The Crucible. How does Michael Day (@daisy8ball) see things turning out in the Quarter-Finals?
Ding Junhui v Judd Trump | Tuesday 10:05 | BBC
Despite Mark Selby falling victim to the dreaded ‘Crucible Curse’, the dynamics of the championship are very similar to what I had foreseen, with seven of the eight remaining players in the Top 10 of the World Rankings.
One of my picks for the title, Judd Trump, has progressed to the quarter finals with relative ease, having comfortable wins over qualifier Stuart Carrington and the seeded Marco Fu.
Trump will face China’s Ding Junhui in the last eight in what should be a real mouth watering clash. They played in the semi’s here back in 2011 and it was one of the best matches I have ever seen. For the record, Judd nicked it.
Coming to Sheffield after a dismal season thus far, Junhui has really impressed me with his aptitude and approach to certain situations over the last week or so. Behind to both Mark Davis and four times winner John Higgins, ‘The Star of the East’ showed real battling qualities in the face of adversary; something we haven’t seen much of from him at the Crucible.
For me, the competition is now in a different stage. Everyone is competing over the next two days to a conclusion for the semi-finals, and you’ll be scheduled to play for the next seven days if you’re going to be in the final. It really is going to intensify.
As previously mentioned, Trump has been in that exact position before, whilst Ding still awaits his maiden World final. I have to stick with my guns and fancy JT for this match, he has had a better season by absolute miles, although his general price of around 4/7 is a bit short in my opinion – I think it should be closer to the 8/11 mark considering Junhui’s reputation.
Their head to head record is extremely close with Ding just shading matches won (6-5), and also the total frame count (51-47). However, like I said, Trump has won their solitary meeting at the Worlds.
On the basis of evidence above, it would be unlikely for either player to break the shackles and romp home. I was tempted and looking to go with Ding +2.5 at best price 5/6 (he would need to win 11 frames).
But I came across a far more prudent market with Bwin and the over 22.5 frames bet. This is priced at 11/10. Effectively both players need to hit 10 in this best of 25 frame match – regardless of the overall result. Tune in for this one whatever you do – could be a classic.
Ding Junhui v Judd Trump – Over 22.5 Frames (11/10 BWin)
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