MARK O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) takes a look at the betting ahead of Monday night’s Madrid derby featuring Rayo and Getafe.
Rayo Vallecano v Getafe | Monday 19.45
You can’t help but fall for Rayo Vallecano. The club are offering discounted tickets at less than £5 to unemployed locals to watch their Madrid derby against city neighbours on Monday night; just another tick in the charm offensive box that Rayo continue to lead the way in over in Spain.
But matters on the pitch are also worth shouting about. Paco Jemez’s extraordinary achievements in keeping the Vallecas club in La Liga for another season and well clear of relegation deserves sustained applause, bows and salutes. Sadly though, Paco faces a three-game touchline ban and if, as expected, he leaves Spain this summer, La Liga will lose one of its most charismatic and best coaches. It’s a genuinely sad story.
Every summer Paco is forced to wave goodbye to 10+ players and bring in a raft of new recruits, rebuilding the squad each year. But nevertheless, the former Zaragoza centre-half finds a way to install his beliefs for attractive possession-based football across and Rayo rise from the rubble.
In each of the last two top-flight campaigns Rayo have held the second-highest average possession figure (58.5% and 60%) and although they’ve dropped to fourth in the table this season with 57%, it’s another feather in Paco and the Los Franjirrojos’ cap.
The hosts have drawn their last two league games but their form in Vallecas has been excellent of late, W5-D1-L1. The two fixtures they dropped points in came against Valencia and Real Madrid. And although Jorge Morcillo is out with suspension, Abdoulaye Ba should be fit enough to fill in for the defender on Monday night.
Opponents Getafe sit five points above the dreaded drop zone following the weekend results and have losing their last four, Pablo Franco knows the Azulones aren’t yet over the line. El Geta scored just once in those four defeats and are also without a number of players through injury.
Rayo’s home record deserves maximum respect and the hosts have held the upper hand in recent derby duels. Paco’s men have won six of the last seven La Liga head-to-heads with Getafe and it’s worth noting that under his stewardship, Rayo have won 24/55 (44%) of their fixtures as league hosts – that record improves to winning 14/29 (48%) when welcoming bottom-half dwellers to Vallecas.
I tend to run a mile when I see Rayo chalked up at odds-on quotes but in this instance, Coral’s 19/20 holds the most appeal. As well as the aforementioned stats in Los Franjirrojos’ favour plus Getafe’s woeful recent displays, it’s worth pointing out that the visitors have lost 22/36 (61%) of their away games since the start of last season, keeping only five clean sheets and failing to even score on 18 occasions.
And El Geta’s record shows little major improvement when travelling to fellow bottom-half clubs. The team from south of Madrid have suffered losses in 8/17 (48%) of away ties at bottom-half teams since the start of last season, shutting their opponents out twice and failing to net in eight of those encounters.
With all that considered, I’m happy to have a wee punt on Rayo. Those looking for something different might be intrigued by the fact the hosts have scored 60% of their league goals after the half-time interval. Getafe have also notched 66% of their goals in the second period – BetVictor have made the second-half the Highest Scoring Half a 21/20 shot.
Rayo Vallecano v Getafe – Rayo Vallecano to win (19/20 Coral)
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