I WAS looking at putting up a minus one treble but prices on the sides I fancied were so short I’m taking their games to go over 2.5 goals instead.
The teams in question are Porto and Wolfsburg at home to Gil Vicente and away to Paderborn respectively.
Porto have covered the -1 handicap in their last three home meetings against Gil with two of them going over 3.5 goals and home and away the last three meetings have finished 5-1, 5-0 and 3-1 in favour of the favourites.
It’s a must-win for Porto who lie six points behind leaders Benfica with a game in hand and they could do with closing the goal difference gap. I expect Porto to score at least three so the over 2.5 goals tip should come in.
Add over 2.5 goals at Paderborn where Wolfsburg need to start firing again if they are to clinch runners-up spot to Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga.
From looking certs to finish second Wolfsburg have fallen to third, one point behind Monchengladbach with a game in hand, after taking just two points from three games.
They are now just four points ahead of Bayer Leverkusen in the race for an automatic Champions League place and victory at relegation-haunted Paderborn will ease their nerves.
Wolfsburg were banging in goals right, left and centre at the start of the year with most of them coming from Bas Dost. The Dutchman then suffered a goal drought and went 876 minutes without scoring in the Bundesliga before hitting the target in last week’s draw with Hannover.
His barren run coincided with Wolfsburg’s loss of form and now he’s back in the goals his club can pick up. They’re pretty short to win so I’m on over 2.5 goals – even during a poor run four of their last six matches have gone over 3.5 goals. And I’m backing Dost to net the opener as he likes to score in streaks.
Complete the goals treble with both to score at Aberdeen v Celtic. This would have been a more interesting match-up if the Dons hadn’t lost at Dundee Utd to hand the title to the Hoops without playing.
Celtic may have wrapped up the title but I don’t see them easing off – especially against the team who are currently their closest and fiercest rivals – and boss Ronny Deila wants as many wins in the bag as possible.
Aberdeen are unbeaten in 10 at Pittodrie but their record versus Celtic is rank rotten having won just two of the last 38 league meetings.
Celtic have netted in their last 47 matches against Aberdeen so there shouldn’t be any problem with them hitting the net. Three of the last five meetings in the north east have seen both scoring and all three league meetings this season have gone over 2.5 goals.
2pts Both to score/over 2.5 goals bet
First scorer tip
Bas Dost (Wolfsburg)
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