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Monday, December 17, 2018

Free betting tips and previews

Here you will find free betting tips and previews from the hottest betting experts online collected and compiled in one place. Same as in the Tiltbet betting app on AppStore.

Latest betting tips - page 9

Alan Thomson’s Racing Tips: All things Brighton beautiful

WATER DIVINER (2.00) and NAPANOOK (2.30) have similar profiles as they attempt to snap a frustrating run of near misses at Brighton.

Richard Hannon’s Water Diviner won at Wolverhampton in July and has been a model of consistency without poking his head in front. He was a beaten odds-on shot over course and distance, leading until collared inside the final furlong. It was a similar story at Chester when finding useful Barriston The Bold too strong, but the colt has been found a slightly easier opportunity in this median auction stakes.

Napanook keeps hitting the crossbar, his latest second prize coming at Kempton 10 days ago when out-matched by Intuitive. Marker rival Punjab Mail also finished second on the same card and as they both clocked very similar times, there should be precious little between them.

Sir Alex Ferguson’s red and white colours are carried by CHESS MOVE (4.05) and the gelding has a chance if repeating his recent Lingfield second to The Warrior (runs 3.35). Chess Move went down narrowly to Rivas Rob Roy over course and distance back in May off a one pound higher mark so should be competitive.

Recommended bets

  • Brighton 2.00 – Water Diviner (5-1, bet365)
  • Brighton 2.30 – Napanook (15-8, bet365)
  • Brighton 4.05 – Chess Move (5-1, Paddy Power)


This post is originally from: mrfixitstips.co.uk

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DraftKings NBA Picks – October 17th

What’s up guys. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings picks for October 17th. Tonight is our first full slate of the year, with 11 games on tap. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.

Top Pick:

PG/SG: James Harden: (11,500)

Harden is starting the year off at home (1.7 more DK PPG), in this highest total of the slate. (230 points) He is going against The Pelicans, who ended last season as the fastest team in the association. The Beard always produced vs them, averaging 57.6 DK PPG in four matchups. In the four home games Harden and The Rockets saw an O/U game total of 225 points and up, he averaged an elite 60.6 DK PPG.

Jrue Holiday is an above average defender, but the pace and Harden’s past success vs them out trumps any concerns I have with the matchup tonight. Assuming this game doesn’t become a blowout (HOU -8.5), Harden should approach 60 DK points and flirt with a triple double.

Value Picks:

SF: Cedi Osman: (4,200)

As The Cavs’ new starting SF, Osman is about to take a huge step in his second NBA season. Even with LeBron heading west, the two former teammates still worked out this summer and it showed during the preseason. I actually attended his first game preseason game, vs The Celtics, and Osman looked like a completely new player in this bigger role. He was aggressive driving to the basket, looked to have improved his shot, and was always trying to keep his teammates involved. In the win, he scored 11 points, to go along with seven rebounds, and four assists in only 19 minutes of work. Like the rest of The Cavs’ starters, he rested most of the second half, which is a nice sign that Head Coach Ty Lue plans on giving Osman a starter’s workload this season.

He scored 0.72 DK PPM last year, but with all of his rates increased, I think Osman will average right under a DK PPM. Tonight he should log 30-35 mins, but the only problem is he is facing off against one of the premier defenders in The NBA, Kawhi Leonard. (below) Even so, Leonard should be helping on Kevin Love, which should keep the opportunities there for Osman. He should easily top 20 DK points and is one of, if not, the best point per dollar value of this 11 game slate.

SF/PF: Tobias Harris: (7,000)

Harris is going to be a fantasy gem this season. In the preseason, he saw a 25.2% usage rate and in only 23 MPG, Harris averaged 17.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 3.0 assists. I don’t know if any of you played the showdown contests during the preseason, but anytime The Clipper’s were action and Harris was active, he was always one of the top options to lock in as your captain. With Blake Griffin, Deandre Jordan, and Austin Rivers out of town, HC Doc Rivers wants to the offense to run through Harris and Danilo Gallinari. (below) I think we see a 25-30% usage rate from Harris this season. He averaged 34.5 DK PPG in his 31 games with The Clippers last year. Tonight, he is at home, where he averaged 1.6 more DK PPG, in an excellent spot vs The Nuggets, who were 25th in defensive efficiency, and 13th in pace a year ago.

The Clippers ranked 7th in pace and this game is expected to be very high scoring and competitive. (DEN -1.5, 226 O/U game total, second highest of the night) In the ten games last season that Harris suited up for that had an O/U game total over 225 points, he averaged 38.5 DK PPG. He should get us at least five times value, with a ceiling around 50 DK points, and he is my preferred way of getting a piece of this LAC vs DEN matchup.

C: Alex Len: (5,600)

Len is always risky and his price is fair, but the upside he has with John Collins (ankle) and Dwayne Dedmon (ankle) both out, is extremely high. With these two bigs sidelined, Len is by far the best big they have and the most experienced, with two rookies and only Mile Plumlee behind him. He will start vs The Knicks and if he can stay out of foul trouble, Len has a great chances of producing value going against this defense that ranked 21st in defensive efficiency last season.

He will match up with center Enes Kanter, who may be an efficient scorer himself, but is one of the worst post defenders in the entire league. If Len sees 30+ minutes, he should simply dominate Kanter. He scored 1.1 DK PPM last season and in the final six games he logged 25 minutes or more, Len averaged 33.8 DK PPG. With this Hawks’ front court severely thin, Len is a risk worth taking on Wednesday night.

Also Consider:

PF/C: Anthony Davis: (11,100) I always prefer AD at home, but the first game of the season is always a rare chance to get him without any injury concerns. He averaged 51.1 DK PPG vs The Rockets last season and in the last 20 games he has competed in with a O/U game total over 225, he is putting up an insane 59.7 DK PPG. Harden is the safer play, but I think it is wise to pivot to Davis in some GPP lineups.

SG/SF: Kawhi Leonard: (8,100) There’s a chance we never see Leonard this cheap again. He is fully healthy and is playing for a new contract.In his final three games with The Spurs, of only nine last year, Leonard averaged 45.3 DK PPG. He only played in 28.9 MPG in this stretch, which is an elite 1.6 DK PPM. He saw a 26.2% usage rate in the preseason, but I think this number hovers around 30 this year, with no more LaMarcus Aldridge around in Kawhi’s offense. In his MVP like season two years ago, which is his last full season healthy, Leonard was frequently priced close or over $10,000 on DraftKings. Facing a Cavs’ defense that should be one of the weakest in The NBA, with LeBron gone to The Lakers, I am projecting a 40-45 DK point night from Leonard in his first game in Toronto.

PG/SG: Jrue Holiday: (7,500) Even vs a strong Houston defense (5th in efficiency), Holiday was productive in their four meetings last season. (41.9 DK PPG) Rajon Rondo’s exit from New Orleans should slightly improve Holiday’s rates, specifically his assists, and in this fast paced game, I am expecting 35-40 DK points. He is one of the better high end values of the slate.

C: Denadre Ayton: (6,900) The rookie out of Arizona was awesome in the preseason, averaging 18.2 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks in 26.9 minutes. His usage was high for a rookie (25.6%) and they will need him to play 30+ minutes vs Deandre Jordan and The Mavs. Jordan is a big body and a strong shot blocker, but overall he is nothing to worry about, in terms of a matchup. Ayton should tally a double double with a few blocks in his NBA debut.

C: Brook Lopez: (4,800) Lopez should be a very nice fit with The Bucks. He is strong in the post and his solid three point shooting will stretch the floor for this offense, which is something they haven’t had in recent years. He scores 1.03 DK PPM, averaged 24.1 DK PPG last season, and hasn’t been priced under $5,000 in 18 games. Tonight, he will take on The Hornets, who lost Dwight Howard this offseason and will be mostly relying on Cody Zeller and Willy Hermangomez at the five spot.

PG/SG: Isaiah Canaan: (4,200) Canaan is expected to start at PG tonight for The Suns. They showed confidence in Canaan by releasing Shaq Harrison just two days ago. Their PG depth is extremely thin behind him and like he did in the preseason, Canaan should play 30+ minutes tonight vs The Mavs. Devin Booker being back obviously hurts Canaan and this whole offense’s usage, but he scored 0.9 DK PPM last season and with guaranteed minutes as a starter, I think he should come close to six times value.

PG/SG: Jeremy Lin: (4,000) Lin is coming off a bad kneecap injury and we can’t expect heavy playing time, but I think 20-25 minutes a night off the bench is fair. His usage should also be up, playing with this weak Hawks’ second unit. He averaged 0.92 DK PPM in 2017 and this Knicks defense he is facing was the 9th worst unit a year ago. Plus, I am sure Lin is very excited about his return to the court and that this game is vs his former team.

Danilo Gallinari: (6,000) Just like with Harris, Galo is going to have a bigger role this season. In the preseason, he averaged 17.25 points, 4.75 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1.25, with a team high 27.4 usage %. The minutes should come back over 30 this season and Gallinari should put up 30-35 DK points in this high total.

PLAY THIS LINEUP


This post is originally from: www.thesportsgeek.com

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October 17th, 2018 NHL Betting Tips

Written by Graeme on Wednesday, October 17th, 2018

Hi guys and welcome to the NHL Tips for October 17th, 2018. Sorry for the delay in posting them today. After being away for the last week I really wanted to take the time to get caught up on hockey. Then today I was deeply researching everything and spending a lot more time than normal looking through it all.

Although I caught hockey highlights while away and even attended the Stars vs Ducks game, it’s amazing what a difference it makes in what you take in when casually watching stuff as opposed to sitting there with the intent of studying it.

Cannabis is legal in Canada as of today. What a time to be alive. Of course in Ontario it’s online only and there’s a bloody Canada Post strike coming up as of this Monday but at least the reservation is only a 25 minute drive away from Kingston!

I don’t normally do this but my mum has entered her dog into some contest where the winner gets to be in a calendar and it’s one of those things that are really important to her for whatever reason. So if you have a facebook account and have 10 seconds to spare, I’d really appreciate it if you could click this link then click Like on the picture. Cheers!

The NBA season is back and my buddy Vin did some great work over at his NBA Futures website. He’s went through every team and analyzed them as well as a wide variety of futures. Just some incredible work and I’m looking forward to tipping the NBA Season with him again.

Onto the NHL. It was a 0-1 night last night and there was a mess up on our end. Scott incorrectly read that Murray was in net and went with that. That should have been a goalie dependent pick where we make a note that we only go with it when the goalie is confirmed. For the record I highly recommend Leftwinglock as they will only post when it’s actually confirmed and will link to the source.

Anyway it goes down in the stats as a loss and honestly not sure if Murray could have lifted that team to the win over the Canucks. The Penguins offense just couldn’t get anything going and it was a disappointing performance. Penguins seem to be in a bit of a funk at the moment where they’ve lifted themselves up against theoretically better opponents, but lost to inarguably much weaker ones. They now head out on a 4 game road trip to Canada which should be very interesting. Last years road trip there saw them go 1-3.

We had Canes/Lightning Over 6 goals and that was a push.

Tonight only 4 games on the board. For the record I wrote up a ton about Capitals vs Rangers Over 6 goals / Capitals TT over 3.5 but then pulled it. Just not seeing the stats to back it up and it’s a pure gut play and one where I felt I was out there looking for data to try and back it up rather than let the data develop the play.

Bruins vs Flames Betting Tips:

Bruins are underdogs and I’ve got to take that. Discounting that Capitals disaster they’ve won their last 4 including a very solid road win against the Buffalo Sabres.

While their opponents haven’t been the best quality during that run I still think the Senators are a feisty bunch so that was a good win, and putting 8 past the Red Wings was very impressive. It should give their offense confidence.

They’ve had a couple of days break and I think they start this 4 game road trip off with a W. The Flames right now are just inconsistent and still trying to figure things out and it’s going to be a hell of a struggle for them every time the Bruins top line is on the ice.

This one is a great price that I’ve just got to take. Rask has a tremendous record against the Flames and I don’t believe he has ever lost against them in regulation time. The Capitals result should still be fresh enough in their memories that inconsistency isn’t an issue.

As I’ve been away for a week we’ll just go with a small 0.5u play on Bruins to win incl OT/SO as despite their inconsistencies the Flames have a lot of talent and should really be fighting to beat the better opponents. I’m quite a fan of that third line.

Canada: 1.95 Odds at Bet365.
USA: -110 Odds at Bovada.
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at Bet365.

(Odds correct as of 2018/10/17 2:24:55 PM EST but are subject to change.)

OHL / WHL / AHL / KHL / Czech Extraliga Betting Tips:

(All below systems are based mainly on mathematics and statistics with very little human input and are deemed experimental. )

Czech Extraliga Betting Tips (1-1, +0.25u): Not too happy with the predictions for the last set of games. There was a couple of potential plays I didn’t post and they lost. Could be sample size/variance but advise caution – 0.5u on PSG Bearani Zlin to win incl OT/SO at 1.72 odds.

WHL Betting Tips (3-2, +0.56u): 0.5u on Spokane Chiefs in reg at 2.10 odds.

Where To Bet the Non-NHL Leagues:

Canadians: Bodog and 888 Sports.
Americans: Bovada.
Everyone Else: 888 Sports.


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Look North – Champions to edge past impressive Hibs

PROUD Scot (@chrisgraham79) pinpoints his best bet from the weekend Scottish Premiership action.

Celtic v Hibs | Saturday 20th October 2018, 15:00

Club football returns to top-flight Scottish football this weekend after a miserable international week and with Celtic v Hibs and Hearts v Aberdeen on the menu it’s sure to be a fun weekend.

I’ll concentrate on the former game here. It brings together, according to some, the two best sides in the division and we should get a real feel for where Hibs stand after this game.

Neil Lennon’s side have had a solid season so far with just one defeat in their eight league matches. Things have really started to click in recent weeks with four wins on the bounce including two bulky, impressive victories against Dundee (3-0) and Hamilton (6-0).

There is a case to suggest that early season Europa League exertions put pressure on the squad and that may be why we’ve seen their Game 5-8 points tally jump to 12 from a Game 1-4 tally of four.

So it’s fair to say the Edinburgh side come into this game in great shape. But can they push the champions all the way?

Their record against Celtic last season was nothing to be ashamed of as they shared the points (5) with the Glasgow club after two draws and a win at Easter Road in April. So, in better form now, they must be fancying their chances?

Plodding Celtic

Celtic have plodded this season alongside a backdrop of manager discontent and squad malaise. Their problems have been well documented and they’ve dropped eight points already (the same number they dropped in the whole of the 2016/17 season) but they showed their teeth last time out against St Johnstone as they crushed them 6-0 in Perth.

That very well may have been a turning point for Brendan Rodgers’ side and normal service may well resume from here. Despite their wobbles this season they have been exemplary at Celtic Park with four wins out of four. Rangers were outclassed, Aberdeen were grinded down. Will Hibs be next?

Celtic’s emphatic win a fortnight ago has perhaps settled the early-season uncertainty. The international break could have been worse for them too with striker Leigh Griffiths opting to miss the Scotland games and stay at home to work on his fitness. Will he make an impact on Saturday against his former side?

I’m banking on Celtic’s perfect home league form continuing on Saturday. This is an opportunity for them to build on their win in Perth and keep the pressure on Hearts.

It won’t be easy though and I expect Hibs to notch. No Premiership team has scored more goals than the Easter Road side this season and they’ll be bang up for this game, just like they were all last season against Celtic.

The champions should just have enough and Correct Scores of 2-1 and 3-1 appeal. I’ll keep it simple though and back Celtic to win and Both Teams To Score at 28/13 with 188BET.

Best Bets

Celtic v Hibs – Celtic to win and Both Teams To Score (28/13 188BET)

Celtic Hibs Scottish football Scottish Football Tips Scottish Premiership Scottish Premiership Tips

This post is originally from: welovebetting.co.uk

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Rob Eddy’s Racing Tips: Thursday 18th October

DISCLAIMER: ODDS AND ARTICLE UPDATED 17/10/2018, 17:22.

Six meetings take place across the UK and Ireland on Thursday afternoon, with jumps action at Uttoxeter, Carlisle and Tramore in Ireland, as well as Flat cards at Brighton, Chelmsford and Wolverhampton.

6.30 Wolverhampton

French Twist to Win and Each Way @ 10/1 - BET NOW

Mark Johnston fires two arrows at this 6f nursery contest, with French Twist joining stablemate Axel Jacklin. A chance is taken with the former, the mount of Adam Kirby on her second start in handicap company. The Animal Kingdom filly ran well over this C&D on her debut in August, finishing second to Penarth Pier. The form doesn't appear brilliant but a couple of winners have since sprung from those that finished behind.

French Twist hasn't built on that bright start, disappointing on soft ground at Carlisle next time and twice since over 7f. She has been dropped a couple of pounds immediately after one start in handicaps and now falls into Class 6 company. Back around Dunstall Park and with Kirby booked, she could outrun her racing odds in a wide-open event.

2.20 Uttoxeter

Kublai to Win and Each Way @ 13/8 - BET NOW

Kublai has shown ability but last week's win at Worcester ended a winless streak that dates back to November 2015. A handicap in the mid-120s had dropped all the way to 82 prior to that success although the signs of a revival were there.

He ran well in second behind Double Court at Market Rasen last month and backed that up in some style with an 18-length success at Worcester over this two-and-a-half-mile trip. He carries a 7lb penalty now for that score but Adam Wedge's mount will take some halting if turning up here in the same mood.

He also runs into a field of rivals that are largely struggling for form and Kublai deserves to be at the head of the racing betting for this handicap on form.

2.05 Tramore

Hernandoshideaway to Win and Each Way @ 8/1 - BET NOW

Hernandoshideaway showed his best form so far over timber when fifth of 27 in a strong handicap at Navan last month over 2m6f, looking like he might find more and perhaps just going beyond his optimum stamina-wise.

It was still an encouraging effort and this former Flat winner shouldn't be out of his comfort zone coming back to the minimum distance over timber. Most appealing is that he is now getting the hang of his jumping and, with Dylan Robinson taking a handy 3lb off his back, the six-year-old is fancied to run a big race here.

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You can grab any new customer offer in our free bets section to place a wager on these races. Thank you for reading and good luck betting today.

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DraftKings MLB DFS Picks – October 17th

We had some nice picks with last night’s DraftKings MLB DFS Picks, however we also had a couple longshot plays aimed at GPPs that didn’t pan out.

Our top pitcher Rich Hill gave us a nice outing as he hurled five innings of one-run ball to go along with six strikeouts. He yielded a run just before he left the game, and unfortunately got just one run of support, so he took a tough-luck no decision.

Our GPP pitcher Joe Kelly unfortunately didn’t eclipse value as he came in and pitched just a third of an inning and did not record a strikeout. Starter Nathan Eovaldi got the win in this one.

Our Red Sox stack were the best bats in our lineup, however we unfortunately did not roster Jackie Bradley Jr. who broke the game wide open with an eighth-inning Grand Slam to put the Red Sox up 8-2. That said, we did have Steve Pearce who hit a solo home run as well as J.D. Martinez who lined an RBI double to right. Mookie Betts also singled and scored.

Our three-man Dodgers stack didn’t pan out, but Austin Barnes singled and walked giving us a little bit of value there while Chris Taylor singled and walked twice. That said, the stack ended up hurting us.

Lastly, our one-off bat Hernan Perez did not start and simply pinch ran.

Let’s see if we can get some more all-round production on another two-game slate tonight while tonight’s lineup will also be aimed at GPPs.

P – Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – $8,700 vs. MIL

I like me some Clayton Kershaw at home and that’s where he will be tonight in hopes of giving the Dodgers a 3-2 series lead in the Best of 7 NLCS against the Brewers. Kershaw didn’t enjoy a very fun road start to kick off this series in Game 1 in Milwaukee, however Kershaw was flat out dominant in his lone start of these playoffs at home. Kershaw initially silenced his previous postseason demons with eight dominant shutout innings at home against the Braves in Game 2 of the NLDS. The Brewers are the best offense Kershaw has faced so far in the postseason, and that showed through in Game 2. However, as -174 favorites in this one I like Kershaw’s chances at redemption in tonight’s Game 5.

P – Joe Kelly (BOS) – $4,000 vs. HOU

Joe Kelly again? Well, ya. Our group of bats doesn’t feature much differentiation for GPPs tonight, so I am looking for Kelly to be that longshot difference-maker tonight. He pitched just one third of an inning last night, however that means that Kelly should be available for multi-inning work tonight. Rick Porcello is starting the game for the Red Sox, but that’s a very good Houston offense and there’s a good chance that Porcello doesn’t pitch more than five innings tonight. That could leave the 6th and 7th innings to Kelly in a perfect world before Matt Barnes or one of the other back end members of the Boston bullpen sets up Craig Kimbrel for a save. At the end of the day, we are throwing up a hope and a prayer that Kelly can get into this game for two innings, notch a couple strikeouts and record a win for his club.

C – Sandy Leon (BOS) – $2,700 vs. HOU

As far as bats go, Leon will be the lowest-owned member of our lineup as he is projected to be the Red Sox catcher tonight against Charlie Morton and the Astros. I am not going to sit here and tell you Leon has big-time upside, but I will tell you that the switch-hitting backstop hit for more power against right-handers like Morton than he did lefties this season. He homered five times and hit 12 doubles in just 265 at-bats this season, so the power isn’t horrific, either. He also forms a wrap-around stack with the top of the Red Sox lineup tonight as he’s projected to hit ninth in the order, so perhaps Leon can get on base a couple times and score a couple runs hitting in front of the future AL MVP this evening.

1B – David Freese (LAD) – $4,100 vs. MIL

Freese’s postseason resume speaks for itself as he’s a .278 career hitter in the playoffs across 180 at-bats, however also owns an impressive .858 OPS in that time as well. While a lot of that damage was done earlier in his career, Freese lines up nicely against left-hander Wade Miley tonight out of the projected three-hole for the Dodgers this evening. In his career against Miley, Freese has gone 7 for 20 (.350) with a homer. He also hit .385 with a huge 1.130 OPS in 39 at-bats with the Dodgers in the regular season, so let’s kick off a four-man Dodgers stack with the veteran tonight.

2B – Jose Altuve (HOU) – $4,800 vs. BOS

Altuve is bothered by a sore knee at the moment, but he is still swinging a nice bat after a two-hit effort in last night’s game while he also scored both of Houston’s runs as well. Altuve also displayed his lightning-quick hands as he turned around a 101 mph fastball from Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi for the Astros’ first hit of last night’s loss. His stolen base upside is lowered with that bad knee, but he’s still an extremely reliable bat to hit for extra-base power and score some runs in the process. He’s also homered twice and doubled in just career at-bats against Porcello, so I will turn to the reliable veteran for tonight’s Game 4.

3B – Justin Turner (LAD) – $4,700 vs. MIL

If you follow these lineups you already know that Turner is a lefty-masher, but he only got one at-bat against Brewers starter and left-hander Gio Gonzalez last night, which led to an 0 for 5 night. Turner posted a .244 ISO and a 1.028 OPS against lefties in the regular season while he’s a career .306 hitter with a huge .953 OPS in the postseason. He’s projected to hit second in the lineup tonight, meaning he will technically lead off this stack with strong cross-category upside to boot.

SS – Manny Machado (LAD) – $5,000 vs. MIL

Machado has been the most controversial player in the series, but he’s also been one of the best bats in the series. After notching another hit in last night’s game, Machado now sports an .894 OPS for the playoffs and a .353 average and .977 OPS for this series, including a homer. He has enjoyed some quality career success against the southpaw Miley as Manny is 4 for 14 (.286) with a homer against the veteran and his former teammate in Baltimore. I will simply ride the hot bat of the free agent to be.

OF – Matt Kemp (LAD) – $4,200 vs. MIL

Kemp completes our four-man Dodgers stack as he clobbered left-handed pitching this season. As recently announced, Kemp is up for comeback player of the year this season, as voted on by the players, thanks in large part to mashing left-handed pitching to the tune of a .235 ISO and .828 OPS en route to a surprise All-Star appearance. Kemp’s been fairly quiet by going 2 for 8 this series with both hits going for singles, but he owns a career .200 ISO against Wade Miley across a large 35 at-bat sample, so he’s got some pop upside here. Kemp’s bat is an important one tonight as he will be tasked with driving in the other players in this stack as he is hitting in the projected five-hole tonight to anchor this stack.

OF – Andrew Benintendi (BOS) – $5,300 vs. HOU

We will complete our lineup with a pair of Red Sox outfielders that form a three-man stack with Sandy Leon in the catcher spot above. Benintendi notched a first-inning double in last night’s game and also scored a run. He brings excellent cross-category upside to the table tonight as he hit right-handers for a .184 ISO and .877 OPS in the regular season while he stole 21 bases overall, 17 of which came against righties. I am also liking the fact he has gone 4 for 10 with a homer and a double in his career against Charlie Morton. His bat is also important as he will be tasked with possibly driving in Leon and the Red Sox leadoff hitter tonight at the tail end of our three-man stack.

OF – Mookie Betts (BOS) – $5,800 vs. HOU

Last but certainly not least is Betts who will be that leadoff hitter for the Red Sox tonight against Morton. There’s not a ton I can say to inform you of how much upside is here other than to say Betts clobbered righties for a .271 ISO and 1.037 OPS in the regular season while he swiped 30 bases as well. He’s 3 for 8 (.375) with a double in his career against Morton as well. He’s more of a lock and load player and will see some high ownership tonight, but it’s a risky fade to be sure.

PLAY THIS LINEUP


This post is originally from: www.thesportsgeek.com

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Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros MLB Pick – October 17th

I gave you two bets on game three of this series yesterday and picked up a split. I liked the over in the game, as both of these teams have very powerful offenses and I wasn’t all that confident in the abilities of Nathan Eovaldi and Dallas Keuchel. And I expected the Astros to find a way to win this game on their home field.

The overcame in fairly easily as the teams hit the board early with three runs in the first inning and the game sailed over in the eighth inning when Boston exploded for a five-spot in the top of the frame. But the Astros let us down as their bullpen surrendered six runs in five innings of work.

The win was an enormous one for the Red Sox as they now once again take back home field advantage from Houston after dropping game one in Boston. In a series that has been high scoring and back and forth I am pumped up for game four tonight!

Starting for the Astros is Charlie Morton (15-3 3.11 ERA), and for the Red Sox, it is Rick Porcello (17-7 4.28 ERA). The Astros are -146 home favorites. The game total over-under is set at eight and a half. First pitch is scheduled for 5:39 PM PST from Minute Maid Park in Houston.

What a huge win last night for the Boston Red Sox. In what is quickly becoming a very hard to predict series, the Red Sox picked up a big upset win. The road team is now 2-1 in this series, and the Red Sox have regained home-field advantage. The Red Sox will send out Rick Porcello to get the start here in game four, a guy that while he had a very productive season, has been relegated to the bullpen for much of the playoffs as two of his three playoff appearances in this postseason have been in relief.

Porcello had a solid season this year as he won seventeen games despite a fairly high ERA of 4.28. Having the best offense in baseball backing him up helped Porcello win a lot of games that he probably shouldn’t have this year. Porcello has pitched well in the playoffs this season though, as he has made three appearances and has an ERA of just 1.35 to show for it. He pitched one inning in relief just three days ago in this series against Houston and did not allow a run.

For the Astros, they will start Charlie Morton. Morton had a fantastic season as he went 15-3 with a 3.13 ERA. But he came down with a sore shoulder in last September and was basically shut down by Houston. In his last two starts of the season he pitched just a combined four innings of work. Houston has rested Morton since the final day of the regular season as he has yet to appear in the playoffs, so he comes into this game with a full two weeks of rest.

There is a fine line in baseball between being rested and getting rusty. You have to wonder which side of that line Morton will be on tonight. And that is assuming he is healthy, which at this point seems to be a mighty big assumption. If Morton is fully healthy and pitches at his best, he is clearly the better side of this starting pitching matchup. He had over 200 K’s on the season as was one of the more consistent pitchers in the American League this year.  But if he is hurt or rusty after the long layoff, it is hard telling what we should expect from him tonight.

Both of these starting pitchers give me a reason not to like them. This recent trend of using starters out of the bullpen and bullpen guys to start games and long relief guys to pitch one inning while closers pitch two or more has really shaken up the baseball world. And I for one don’t like it. I think for certain teams it makes sense. Teams like the Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers where their bullpens are the strongest parts of their teams.

But for the Red Sox who had a strong rotation all season long to experiment like they have this postseason is surprising. Having Porcello going back and forth from the bullpen to the rotation scares me. He isn’t on normal rest, and he isn’t on his normal routine. Throw in the fact that Houston had one of the best offenses in the majors this year and it wouldn’t shock me to see him get roughed up a bit in this one.

And when you look at Charlie Morton, he is hard to trust as well. The guy hasn’t pitched in weeks, and when he did, he was clearly banged up and not himself. This guy hasn’t pitched a full start since September 15th, that is over a month ago! To expect him to step right into this game in the middle of an intense series and be at his sharpest is sure asking a lot.

In a game where both starters could very well be compromised, there is one thing we can count on, and that is that these two lineups are two of the best in all of baseball. All season long, both of these teams could hit the ball. And we have seen that in this series as each of the first three games have gone over the game total and the teams are averaging more than a combined ten runs a game.

I expect more of the same in this game. We saw last night that even if both starters pitch well, and only one team is swing the bats well, that the game can still go over. In all three of the games of this series, one of the teams has scored at least seven runs. I don’t care if it is Porcello or Morton that struggle, or even if it is the bullpens that get beat up, I just think runs are going on the board today. So, I will take the over eight and a half runs in this one and actually even pick up a little dog money at +105!

The Bet: Over 8.5 runs at +105

PLACE YOUR BET!


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Wolves v Watford Predictions & Betting Odds – 20th October 2018

Wolves v Watford Betting Tips – Premier League, 20th October 3.00pm

Wolves will be defending a long unbeaten streak of form in the top flight and they return to action this weekend sat in seventh place in the table. It has been fantastic stuff from the newly promoted side. Now they get the chance at more points as they welcome Watford, whose bright start is well behind them. Read our predictions for Wolves v Watford.

Wolves v Watford Betting Odds*

Wolves 8/11
Draw 11/4
Watford 7/2
* (Betting Odds were taken from bet365 on October 15th, 2018 at 7:52 p.m.)

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Wolves News and Form

Wolves have surprised a lot of people over just how strong of a start that they have made to life in the Premier League. They have adapted well and they are W4 D3 L1 for the season. They head back into action being undefeated in six and they are W4 D1 in their last five alone. The point in that sequence coming in a great performance at Old Trafford against Manchester United. They have taken a clean sheet in each of their four wins this season so Wolves to win to nil is not an unrealistic proposition at 7/4 odds* (betting odds taken on October 16th, 2018 at 7:29 pm).

None of their last seven fixtures in the Premier League have made it over 2.5 goals. That is partly down to their excellent control of games and strong defensive performances. Three of the last four wins that Wolves have come up with have been by a 1-0 scoreline. So riding the Wolves 1-0 trend option in the correct score market is at 6/1 odds* (betting odds taken on October 16th, 2018 at 7:29 pm) looks a sound proposition. Five of the six league goals that they have come up with at Molineux this season have all been after the half time break.

Watford News and Form

Watford won their opening four games of the season, but their form has taken a nosedive. They have earned one point from their last four fixtures, failing to score in their last two. Just before the international break, they took a hammering at home in a 4-0 reverse against Bournemouth. So the pressure is mounting and they are W1 D1 L1 so far from their three road games, the last two ending under 2.5 goals.

Both teams not to score is at 4/5 odds* (betting odds taken on October 16th, 2018 at 7:29 pm) as the likelihood is that this will be a tight fight. Watford have not picked up a clean sheet since their opening game of the season. They have shipped ten goals in their last four league games, and with goals drying up for them (two in four) their attack isn’t covering up their defensive frailties. The Hornets have shipped three of their four away goals in the second half of matches this season.

Wolves v Watford Head to Head

Wolves and Watford will be squaring off for the first time since the 2014/15 Championship season. Wolves took an away win and a home 2-2 draw that season against Watford. Wolves are undefeated in their last three home games against Watford, winning one of those. Both teams have scored in all but one of the last six meetings and four of those six have made it over 2.5 goals.

Wolves v Watford Predictions

Wolves to win: There’s no reason that we can see as to not back the home side to take the victory in the game. They have looked positive and ambitious and with Watford falling out of form, it’s a good chance to back the home side.


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West Ham v Tottenham Predictions & Betting Odds – 20th October 2018

West Ham v Tottenham Betting Tips – Premier League, 20th October 3.00pm

There is an interesting London derby battle coming up on the weekend as Spurs will be looking to extend their league winning form as they head out to face West Ham. The Lilywhites have had some tight battles with the Hammers recently. West Ham would give themselves a massive lift if they could take three points out of this one. Read our predictions for West Ham v Tottenham.

West Ham v Tottenham Betting Odds*

Tottenham 4/5
Draw 13/5
West Ham 10/3
* (Betting Odds were taken from bet365 on October 15th, 2018 at 7:52 p.m.)

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West Ham News and Form

West Ham were on a nice little upturn in form with seven points in three games before they lost at Brighton just before the international break. That was after losing their opening four games of the season. Overall they are W1 D1 L2 at home this season and are unbeaten in their last two at home, having held Chelsea to a draw and beaten Manchester United. So they have had good results against top sides at home this term. Actually each of West Ham’s home games this season (including this one) have been against sides currently in the top half of the table.

They have only produced the one clean sheet this season (home and away) so they are a defensive risk. For our West Ham v Tottenham predictions we have to have a look at both teams to score at 8/13 odds* (betting odds taken on October 16th, 2018 at 7:14 pm). There have been plenty of goals in recent games between these two. Five of West Ham’s eight league games this season have made it above the goal line as well. The Hammers have won two of their last three at home against Spurs and would get a huge lift with another this weekend.

Tottenham News and Form

Tottenham are on a three-match winning streak at the moment. Those were games though that they were expected to win as they faced Brighton, Huddersfield and Cardiff. This should be a bit of a sterner test for them in this London derby. In terms of momentum, they won’t want to slip up here as they have to face Manchester City in their following game. They hold a W4 L1 record in their five away games this season which is great, the only blip was a 2-1 loss at Watford at the start of September. Over 2.5 goals is at 4/6 odds* (betting odds taken on October 16th, 2018 at 7:14 pm).

That is a decent proposition for West Ham v Tottenham predictions as Spurs have scored at least two goals in all but one of their away games this season. The Lilywhites have scored in all of their league outings this season, while 75% of Tottenham’s league games this season have gone over 2.5 goals. Spurs have averaged exactly two goals per away game this season, taking a clean sheet in 40%. Harry Kane is the 5/2 first goalscorer favourite* (betting odds taken on October 16th, 2018 at 7:14 pm).

West Ham v Tottenham Head to Head

Tottenham came out on top in last season’s meeting with the Hammers in the top flight, getting four points. There was a tight 3-2 away win for them followed by a home draw. Spurs are W2 D1 L1 in their last four Premier League meetings with the Hammers but they have lost two for their last three away trips to West Ham, both 1-0 losses. Five of the last eight games between them in all competitions have gone over 2.5 goals.

West Ham v Tottenham Predictions

Draw: The draw takes our fancy here after the Hammers have avoided defeat in recent home games against both Chelsea and Manchester United. Tottenham have done alright in their last couple of away games, but it’s a tough game to get themselves back together in after the international break.


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FanDuel NBA DFS Picks – October 17th


Last night was fun in daily fantasy basketball, but the first real NBA DFS slate of the year arrives on Wednesday night. I’m still not a huge fan of this new FanDuel product, but I’m still rolling out a team for tonight’s 11-game slate.

There is a lot to consider for this slate. It has 22 teams, some injury concerns and plenty of good/matchups to target or avoid. I’ll discuss a lot of it as I break down my favorite NBA DFS picks for tonight. Let’s get to it:

PG: Goran Dragic – Miami Heat ($6k)

Point guard is not a position I feel pressured into paying up for tonight. Chris Paul heads a perfectly fine group, but there is just too much value here. Bryn Forbes, Patty Mills, Frank Mason and D.J. Augustin are all fine punts if you’re trying to load up with studs, while Dennis Smith Jr. is one guy I’d love to have but can’t quite fit in.

If you must pivot away from The Dragon, DSJ (facing Suns) is the way to go.

I really like Dragic at this price, however. He’s cheap and faces a bad Magic team he torched last year to the tune of 37 fantasy points per game. He gets Augustin as his main defender and with Miami missing a slew of perimeter pieces, he may be in for some extra shots. These Orlando/Miami games somehow tend to be close, too, so overall I think he’s an elite value tonight.

PG: Trae Young – Atlanta Hawks ($6.1k)

The Hawks are a good bet to lose a lot of games this year, but I actually like them quite a bit tonight.

Using Young in his NBA debut is risky, but it could also be amazing. He draws the start from day one and should get heavy run and jack up a lot of shots. He had a nice line in the preseason and has a ton of upside. He’s just way too cheap to get the ball rolling and I have to take a shot here.

Adding to the allure is a date with the Knicks, who do not have great defensive point guards and ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency a year ago. This game also has a strong 215 Total at Sportsbetting.ag, so aside from the worst shooting performance in history going down, Young feels like a fantastic play.

The best part about both of these guys is it’s a big slate and there are a lot of options to consider. Both should be pretty low-owned.

SG: Luka Doncic – Dallas Mavericks ($6.7k)

James Harden headlines a pretty loaded shooting guard group and a matchup with the Pelicans makes him worth targeting. He’s pricey, though, and there’s just so much value here. I’ll start it off with Doncic, who is a solid price and gets the Suns in his pro debut.

Phoenix was terrible on defense last year and while they made some big improvements, I’ll have to see it to believe it. Doncic also benefits from Harrison Barnes being out and Vegas has this game at a solid 215 Total. This is not a bad game to target from either side, so I’ll roll the dice on another rookie looking sharp in their first ever meaningful NBA game.

SG: Tim Hardaway Jr. – New York Knicks ($6.3k)

I love Devin Booker from the other side tonight, but he has some extra bodies on his roster these days and is also returning from a hand issue. I might wait to pull the trigger here and instead kick it back to what could be a shockingly fun showdown between the Hawks and Knicks.

Believe me, it pains me to be rostering Atlanta and New York options, but this projects as a no-defense game with a lot of points. Hardaway should be part of that, as he put up 15.5 actual points per game in two meetings with the Hawks last year and will only see a bigger role with Kristaps Porzingis sidelined to start the year.

The Hawks ranked 8th in pace and both of these defenses were bottom 10 a year ago. I find it likely THJ has a solid scoring game to get the new year going and that makes him a fun value play.

If you need a viable punt, look to Joe Harris ($3.9k). A bunch of Nets players are hurt and Detroit hasn’t been good against guards.

SF: Chandler Parsons – Memphis Grizzlies ($3.5k)

Here’s my big FanDuel punt play. There is no reason not to do one in each lineup, especially if there is a chance they could rival or best another one of your players. Parsons is the bare minimum and helps open up cash, but he’s actually starting and is also healthy for a change.

I’m not expecting much from Parsons, but his matchup with Indiana isn’t bad and he should get some run at the three and four this year. He’s worth a roll of the dice, especially since I really only love two SF options tonight.

If you want to go more mid-range, consider Taurean Prince. I don’t know why, but I get the feeling this Hawks/Knicks game will be en fuego.

SF: Kawhi Leonard – Toronto Raptors ($9.6k)

Giannis Antetokounmpo is easily the top small forward tonight, but why spend $12k when I can get a comparable stud for over $2k less? Nobody knows how good Leonard will be as a member of the Raptors, but he was an elite DFS option in San Antonio and that may not change.

Assuming Leonard is the same guy he’s always been, you have to love his price here. I’d prefer him to be a tad cheaper, but perhaps his price and the presence of The Greek Freak will make him somewhat contrarian.

PF: Blake Griffin – Detroit Pistons ($8.2k)

Anthony Davis is the other big stud to pay up for tonight, but he is very expensive and is notorious for random in-game injuries. He’ll surely wreck, but he wasn’t that amazing against the Rockets last year and there is always blowout potential when Houston is involved, too.

I won’t tell you to not use The Brow, but he isn’t necessary with so much appealing value on this slate. Griffin doesn’t quite have his upside, but he’s still a good bet to chase 40+ fantasy points and against the Nets (who he put up 42 fantasy points against last year) he’s going to offer tantalizing upside.

PF: LaMarcus Aldridge – San Antonio Spurs ($8.2k)

Tobias Harris and Paul Millsap are a bit cheaper and give you pretty reasonable exposure to what could be a lit Clippers/Nuggets battle (230 Total!). I’m sure that game is great, but it should be popular, so for GPPs I might pivot to other games like I’ve been doing.

I don’t normally love rostering Spurs, but Ridge has a pretty good matchup here and will continue to see a ton of shots. San Antonio is basically a two-man show these days and Minnesota does not have a very good defense (22nd in efficiency last year). That, and Ridge was quite good (46.5 fantasy points) in three meetings with them last year.

The Brow could get 70 fantasy points tonight, but Ridge and Blake could both easily get 50. I’ll take the balance over forcing in the stud on this slate.

C: Alex Len – Atlanta Hawks ($5.1k)

I’ll wrap things up with another spare from this Hawks/Knicks game. Len is actually slightly iffy for this one, but he’s expected to play and should get a ton of run with both John Collins and Dewayne Dedmon out with injuries.

The Knicks are not good defensively and Enes Kanter specifically is never a guy to stray away from down low. Len can get into foul trouble, but he’s a great price and has a ton of upside. I think he’s worth the risk here.

Center is positively loaded, of course, so I don’t blame you for paying up tonight if you go that route. Hassan Whiteside ($6.9k) has feasted on Orlando in the past, though, so whether you like Lensanity or not, I don’t think you need to pay big money here tonight.

Summary

This is a pure GPP roster. I don’t think you’re going to be able to get away with fading all three of the elite options in cash games tonight, but they are so expensive and they’ll get ownership that I think fading all three has it’s merits on this slate.

If there weren’t a ton of games and options to work with, I’d absolutely force one or two in. However, there is a lot of value to consider tonight and my three priciest options (Blake/Ridge/Kawhi) all have 50+ upside. If those three guys deliver and my value plays work out, this could be a pretty fun night.

Whether you like this lineup as it stands or plan on just using a few of my NBA DFS picks, I hope I help you along in your process in some manner tonight. Good luck and enjoy the games!

PLAY THIS LINEUP


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DraftKings NHL DFS Picks – October 17th

We had some real nice picks with last night’s DraftKings NHL DFS Picks, however our goaltender let us down as the Edmonton Oilers rallied back to beat the Winnipeg Jets in overtime.

Our four-man Penguins stack was a little bit quiet, but Carl Hagelin scored a goal that was assisted by Malkin and Kessel, so at least Hagelin gave us plenty of value at low ownership.

Speaking of value at low ownership, Tyler Johnson netted us a hat trick, and what’s more, he even scored one of those goals while short-handed, giving him a monster night in our lineup. We also had Ondrej Palat in alongside Johnson, and he logged one assist on the night.

Our Panthers mini-stack of Denis Malgin and Aaron Ekblad combined for just one assist, however that assist came from Malgin at tiny ownership while Ekblad logged three shots and a block.

Lastly, Connor Hellebuyck was looking excellent in goal through two periods with a 4-1 lead on home ice before the Oilers rallied to score three third period goals and cap the comeback on Darnell Nurse’s OT winner. That put a big damper on what was a solid lineup.

Hopefully you were able to use some of last night’s picks to notch some profits as we move onto tonight’s four-game main slate.

C – Evgeny Kuznetsov (WAS) – $7,300 vs. NYR

We are going to cover four teams with our lineup tonight, however I want to give this group a strong foundation to work from and that begins here with Kuznetsov who appears to now be one of the very best players in the Eastern Conference this season. He’s off to a white-hot start to the season as he’s bagged four goals and notched nine points in just five games while taking 17 shots and is approaching 21 minutes of ice time per game. He’s the top center for the Caps at both even strength and on the top power play unit where he’s scored all four of his goals this season. Kuznetsov’s Capitals take on a Rangers team that has allowed 3.33 goals per game this season.

C – Adam Henrique (ANH) – $5,500 vs. NYI

As good of a matchup as the Capitals have against the visiting Rangers, the Ducks have themselves a fine matchup as well as they take on the visiting Islanders tonight at the Honda Center. Anaheim has scuffled a little bit with just 2.67 goals per game on the season, good for 22nd, however I think they can pot a few tonight and I am going to roll out a three-man stack that will be both an even strength and top power play unit stack. Henrique is the team’s top offensive center with Ryan Getzlaf still on the shelf, and he’s off to a solid start with two goals and four points in six games. He doesn’t take a ton of shots with just eight on the season, however the Islanders are going to end up as a poor defensive club despite allowing just 2.50 goals per game in four games, so look for Henrique’s line to do some damage tonight.

W – Alex Ovechkin (WAS) – $7,200 vs. NYR

Ovechkin brings one of, if not the highest floor in the league into action pretty much every time he hits a slate, so I am going to use a Kuznetsov/Ovechkin mini-stack to give us a solid floor tonight. He’s blasted home four goals in five games this season with a pair of helpers and almost four shots per game. Expect plenty of shots from the Great 8 tonight as New York has allowed the seventh-most shots per game this season and Ovechkin led the league with 355 shots on goal a season ago. Washington has scored an even four goals per game in five games this season and 4.67 per game in three games at Capital One Arena in Washington on the young season. You’ve got to like the high floors and sky-high ceiling with this duo tonight.

W – Jakob Silfverberg (ANH) – $6,100 vs. NYI

With injuries decimating the Ducks up front again this season, Silfverberg is being relied upon to produce offense and he’s delivering so far with three goals and seven points in six games on the campaign. He’s scored those three goals on just 10 shots, a rate that cannot be sustained, however he’s being deployed in offensive-friendly situations and it’s paying off for the 28-year-old. Silfverberg left his last game against the Blues with an upper-body injury, however he hasn’t been ruled out for tonight’s game, but it’s something to keep an eye on. If he can’t go, Rickard Rakell would be the guy to move up to the top line alongside Henrique.

W – Austin Czarnik (CGY) – $3,300 vs. BOS

We have some pricey pieces in this lineup, so we’re going to need to extract some value from some low-cost players as well, beginning here with Czarnik who takes on his former team tonight against the Bruins. Boston has been pretty solid defensively again this season, however they are being slightly outshot slightly on an average basis and are a middle-of-the-pack possession team whereas the Flames are one of the top possession teams in the NHL. Czarnik had a big preseason for the Flames and has followed that up for a goal and a pair of assists in five regular season games. He is projected to skate on the Flames’ second line tonight and second power play unit which gives him a nice opportunity despite facing a tough defensive club tonight.

D – Cam Fowler (ANH) – $4,900 vs. NYI

I like the price we are getting Fowler at tonight as the Ducks’ top defenseman again what will end up being a weak defensive club in the form of the New York Islanders. Fowler has two assists in six games this season, but he’s also the quarterback of the Ducks’ top power play unit, a spot that has helped him surpass 25 minutes of average ice time per game on that blueline. He logged a whopping 27:48 of ice time in the Ducks’ 3-2 win over the Blues on Sunday and he also notched an assist to boot. He’s going to be relied upon heavily, but for tonight’s matchup, I am liking his sub-$5K price tonight.

D – Noah Hanifin (CGY) – $3,600 vs. BOS

We get ourselves a low-cost, very low-owned mini-stack with Hanifin pairing up with Czarnik for tonight’s underdog matchup against the Bruins. Keep in mind Boston has already allowed seven goals in a road game this season, and faced a weak Sabres offense in their only other road game this season. The Flames rank eighth in offense so far and scored seven goals in their only home game this season, so I think we have something to work with here. Hanifin will quarterback the Flames’ second power play unit where he skates with Czarnik while he’s recorded one assist on nine shots in five games this season.

G – John Gibson (ANH) – $8,300 vs. NYI

Maybe it’s because he plays on the west coast, but Gibson has been one of the best goaltenders in the NHL this season and he does not get the recognition he should. Among goalies with at least four starts, Gibson’s .944 Sv% is the third best mark in the league while the 178 shots he’s faced so far is the third-most in the league. Keep in mind this was a goaltender that posted a 2.43 GAA and .926 Sv% last season, numbers that are Vezina-worthy. I expect him to be in that conversation this season and he’s certainly off to a quality start. Given the Ducks are -167 favorites in this one, I like Gibson’s win upside tonight on home ice.

UTIL – Jordan Kyrou (STL) – $3,200 vs. MON

The Blues are in Montreal tonight to take on the Canadiens, and it appears Kyrou will have himself a nice opportunity if the projected lines ring true come game time. Kyrou is projected to skate alongside Ryan O’Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko on the Blues’ top line this evening, a spot that gives him a ton of upside at a very attractive price tag. Kyrou was a huge point producer in his final season in the Ontario Hockey League as he posted 39 goals and 109 points in 56 games with the Sarnia Sting a year ago. He’s notched one assist in his first five NHL games this season, but Kyrou’s move to the top line could pay immediate dividends.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers MLB Pick – October 17th

We picked up another win last night, but it sure wasn’t easy! We backed Rich Hill and the Los Angeles Dodgers at home in what I saw as a must-win game for LA. I expected Hill to pitch well and had no idea what to expect out of Gio Gonzalez as the Brewers have turned him into an opener of sorts in his last few outings. So, I laid a little wood and backed the home team.

Rich Hill did pitch well, he lasted only five innings but gave up just one run on only three hits. And he was much better than his counterpart for the Brewers, Gio Gonzalez. We knew the Brewers were going to be keeping a close eye on Gio, but I was fairly surprised to see him get pulled after just one inning of work. I get it, he did struggled in the first, but in a game where Milwaukee badly needed to rest their bullpen, they did just the opposite.

In fact, between both teams combined, they used sixteen pitchers in this one. In a series where the bullpens have been abused by both teams, you have to wonder what arms will be available tonight as they play their third game in three nights. This game to a climatic finish as Cody Bellinger singled in Manny Machado in the bottom of the thirteenth inning to walk the game off to give LA the win. The Dodgers had to win last night, and they got the job done.

The teams match up again tonight in Los Angels with the series now tied up at two games apiece. The Dodgers will turn to their best starter, Clayton Kershaw (9-5 2.73 ERA) and for the Brewers, it is Wade Miley (5-2 2.57 ERA). The Dodgers are big -171 home favorites. The game total over-under is set at seven runs. First pitch is scheduled for 2:05 PM PST from Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles.

What a huge game we have in store for us today! The series is tied up, and both pitchers are sending their best starter to the mound. Last night’s game was intense late into the night, and the teams will have to turn around and play an early game today, and the atmosphere is going to be wild in the City of Angels.

I don’t have to remind you again about how Clayton Kershaw has struggled in the playoffs do I? Kershaw’s career ERA in the NLCS is 5.24 in eight starts. There is just something about pitching late in the season that makes Kershaw struggle. We saw that in game one when I faded him and cashed a ticket as he got hammered for five runs in three innings of work and the Dodgers lost the game. But for some reason, I feel like he is going to exercise those demons and pitch well today.

And to be completely honest I don’t know why I feel that way. All the data tells me that Kershaw will pitch poorly tonight. His history in the playoffs, his history against the Brewers, how he pitched in his last start. But I am going on record and saying that I think Kershaw figures it out tonight and goes seven-plus innings. The Cubs never won a World Series until they did, the Red Sox never won a World Series until they did, and Kershaw never pitched great in the playoffs, until he does tonight.

Another guy that I expect to pitch well is the Brewers Wade Miley. Miley has been pitching his brains out all season long and has been the most reliable starter for the Brewers down the stretch. Miley missed much of the season with an injury and used the time off to really retool his approach, and he has been all the better for it. He started just sixteen games this season for the Brewers but had the lowest ERA of his career by a wide margin and looks like a new man out there on the mound for Milwaukee.

In the playoffs all Miley has done is start two games and produce an ERA of 0.00! In a combined ten and a third innings of work, he has yet to allow a run on five hits. Against the Dodgers, in game two of the series, he threw five and two-thirds shutout innings. As unlikely as it may have sounded coming into this season, Wade Miley has been elite.

So, where do we go in this game? The Dodgers are once again laughably over-priced, as they have been the entire series. You are rarely, if ever, going to get a fair line on the Dodgers as they are just too popular, and this game is no different. Based on the recent results from Miley and Kershaw, this number should be no higher that Dodgers -140, max. Yet here we are with the Dodgers as big favorites again.

But as you saw above, I expect big things from Kershaw, so I am not really comfortable looking to fade him as I did in game one. But I am also confident in Wade Miley’s ability to shut the Dodgers down. So, when I glance at the game total of seven runs, I start to think of going under.

This is the playoffs, games are generally lower scoring, and the last three games of this series have gone under. With Miley and Kershaw both expected to pitch well, I feel like this is another low scoring game. Even though the Brewers bullpen has been used a bunch in this series and struggled in games one and two, they have been on point in games three and four. In a combined eleven and two-thirds innings of work in games three and four the Milwaukee bullpen has allowed just one run, that is some nasty stuff.

In the regular season, I hate to take the under on such a low number, but this is playoff baseball and runs are always hard to come by. And we are even getting a discount on the juice on the under as it stands right now. Give me the under seven runs tonight in game three at -105!

The Bet: Under 7 runs at -105

PLACE YOUR BET!


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FanDuel MLB DFS Playoff Picks – October 17th

My MLB DFS playoff picks last night weren’t the greatest. I did nail a solid value arm in Nathan Eovaldi (34) and I was correct about targeting some Red Sox. I just didn’t really use the right ones.

Steve Pearce homered and Jackie Bradley hit a grand slam. I actually liked Pearce quite a bit, but I was never going to be on Bradley against a left-handed pitcher.

It wasn’t a winning night, but I had some decent picks. It’s onward and upward for another two-game slate at FanDuel tonight:

SP: Wade Miley – Milwaukee Brewers ($6k)

Like I’ve said a few times, nobody has a good matchup at this point. Even Clayton Kershaw got just three fantasy points in his last start, so I see no reason to pay a premium for expensive pitchers who have bad matchups, could struggle or may even be the first guy in a bullpen effort.

I doubt there is a bullpen outing tonight, but all of the arms could easily get blown up tonight. Miley is at least dirt cheap and allows me to stack bats. He’s also been in terrific form, allowing zero runs so far in the MLB playoffs. The Dodgers can be good at home and have the bats to murder southpaws, but I’m going to ride the wave here.

Miley is admittedly the most dangerous arm to confide in on this slate, but this is about form and price. I want all of the bats tonight.

C/1B: Erik Kratz – Milwaukee Brewers ($2k)

I don’t even know if Kratz is starting as I write this, but I know I want to punt this position to save up elsewhere. There are not a lot of great spots to save cash with just four teams playing, so using a catcher in this slot is one of the best ways to do that.

The good news is Kratz has shown some power against southpaws and he costs the bare minimum. Feel free to pivot to Austin Barnes or Manny Pina if Kratz doesn’t start. If you want to pay up here, Jesus Aguilar ($3.7k) is my stud bat of choice at the C/1B position.

2B: Jose Altuve – Houston Astros ($3.9k)

Altuve is the best 2B option and it’s not particularly close. He’s been on fire with 6+ fantasy points in six straight games and will be at home in a pretty crucial game for the Astros, who are down 2-1 in their series with Boston.

I get the feeling Houston ties things up tonight and it’ll probably be due to an offensive explosion. Considering they’re -148 favorites at Sportsbetting.ag, I’m not exactly going out on a limb here.

The Astros get Rick Porcello, who is a good pitcher but serves up a ton of contact. He’s best attacked from the right side of the plate, but that’s not a luxury we really have with this Houston offense. They’re still fully capable of mashing righties and Altuve excels (.377 wOBA) in these types of matchups.

You can’t lean on BvsP data fully, but it’s worth noting that Altuve has twice donged Porcello in the past.

3B: Alex Bregman – Houston Astros ($4.1k)

I am rolling out a full Astros stack tonight. You need to project things in playoff baseball and I just can’t see Houston losing at home to go down 3-1 in this thing. Porcello may be better targeted from the left side, but he still gives up contact and is in a hostile environment against one of the best lineups in the majors.

Bregman is pricey and I don’t mind a pivot down to Justin Turner, but his splits (.403 wOBA, .254 ISO) are all of the nasty. I’m using Miley, too, so I don’t want to get too carried away with Dodgers and stacking Brewers against Kershaw the second time around feels ill-advised.

SS: Carlos Correa – Houston Astros ($3.5k)

I’ll keep the Houston love going with Correa, who is pretty cheap and riding a nice four-game hitting streak. Manny Machado ($4.3k) is probably the best SS on the board, but Correa is a fine option and saves me a ton of cash.

OF: Chris Taylor – Los Angeles Dodgers ($2.8k)

My lone Dodgers bat is CT3, who figures to get the start given his solid splits and quality play so far in the playoffs. He’s too cheap to ignore here, but if I can find a way up to Ryan Braun ($3.1k) I am going to consider it.

OF: J.D. Martinez – Boston Red Sox ($4.2k)

I paid up for the elite Boston bats last night and it wasn’t the right call. I will go back to the well again tonight, as Charlie Morton hasn’t been elite for a while now. Martinez mashes righties (.310 ISO) even better than lefties this year for some reason and is due for a long ball.

OF: George Springer – Houston Astros ($4.1k)

I’ll wrap up a full four-man Astros stack with Springer, who is one of five Houston sticks that has taken Ricky P yard in the past. Springer is always a threat to launch one and has respectable splits going into this matchup. If you want to pivot to Andrew Benintendi or try to pay up for Christian Yelich instead, I can’t fault you there.

Util: Mookie Betts – Boston Red Sox ($4.4k)

You can pivot to Manny Machado here if you’d like, but I prefer this game for scoring. I don’t exactly want to chase after Kershaw in the off chance he’s finally good in the playoffs, while I also don’t want to stack Dodgers against my pitcher.

Betts isn’t really a consolation prize, as he’s possibly the top bat on the board. He wrecks righties (.436 wOBA, .265 ISO) and has as much upside as anyone tonight.

Summary

I think you need to take hard stances at this point. I expect the Brewers/Dodgers game to be the weaker game on this slate in terms of offensive output, so I don’t want to load up with hitting there. You should favor righties from that game if you disagree, however, while a couple of one-off sticks like CT3, Machado, JT, Aguilar and Braun are clearly very much in play.

I think Houston fights back tonight and evens their series, so I want the Astros in a possible blow-up spot. I still think Boston makes it interesting, though, so give me their two best hitters and let’s see if this lineup can’t make some noise.

Whether you’re using this exact squad or just mixing a few of my MLB DFS picks with your own, I wish you luck tonight. Enjoy the games!

PLAY THIS LINEUP


This post is originally from: www.thesportsgeek.com

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Arsene Wenger Next Job Odds – Football Specials

Arsene Wenger has revealed that he has had enquires from all over the world and expects to make a return to football management in January.

The 68-year-old suffered a disappointing end to a generally successful reign at Arsenal last season but says that time out of the game has renewed his enthusiasm and the Frenchman says he feels re-energised and ready to take up a new challenge.

Wenger was at Arsenal for 22 years after previously managing Nancy and Monaco as well as Nogoya Grampus Eight in Japan. He won the Premier League three times with the Gunners and his team also won the FA Cup seven times, doing the double twice. Boasting a win percentage approaching 60 per cent, he is one of the most successful club managers of modern times and it is no surprise that there have been plenty of suitors.

Ladbrokes have opened a market on Arsene Wenger’s next job but has give no clues about his ultimate destination. At an age at which most of us would be happy to enjoy retirement, Wenger has been linked to a coaching job with the Japan national team and also with a post at Paris St Germain – could he replace Didier Deschamps as coach of world champions France? That would be a strange move by the French FA but Ladbrokes make France their favourites at 7/2. PSG are 6/1 with Real Madrid at 8/1 and a return to Monaco is 10/1 (not much faith being placed in Thierry Henry there) – but would Europe’s top clubs put their future in the hands of a pensioner who has probably always been held in higher regard in England than on mainland Europe.

Arsene Wenger’s Next Job Betting

France 7/2
PSG 6/1
Any Chinese Club 7/1
Any MLS Club 8/1
Real Madrid 8/1
England 9/1
AC Milan 10/1
Barcelona 10/1
Monaco 10/1
Bayern Munich 11/1
Marseille 12/1
Fenerbahce 12/1
(Odds Correct at 3.00pm October 17)


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Manchester City v Burnley Predictions & Betting Odds – 20th October 2018

Manchester City v Burnley Betting Tips – Premier League, 20th October 3.00pm

Manchester City remain undefeated for the season so far and they will be looking for a big three points on home soil as they return from the international break. They are heavy favourites to bank another three points as they face the Clarets. Burnley had just started to get a bit of momentum going after a tough start to the season, but are likely to have their hands full here. Read our predictions for Manchester City v Burnley.

Manchester City v Burnley Betting Odds*

Manchester City 1/14
Draw 10/1
Burnley 33/1
* (Betting Odds were taken from bet365 on October 15th, 2018 at 7:16 p.m.)

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Table of Contents

Manchester City News and Form

Manchester City will be defending their 100% start to their home form this season on the weekend when they play host to Burnley. With four wins from four at the Etihad, things are shaping up well, the Citizens having netted thirteen goals in those four fixtures. Because this is a return after the international break, a comfortable Manchester City 2-0 correct score is at 13/2 odds* (betting odds taken on October 16th, 2018 at 6:33 pm). Manchester City have now won twenty of their last twenty-three (D2 L1) home games in the Premier League.

Raheem Sterling should be in a great mood after breaking his long drought for England in Monday’s win over Spain. Sterling is at 10/11 in the anytime goalscorer market* (betting odds taken on October 16th, 2018 at 6:33 pm). City have taken a clean sheet in each of their last four fixtures now in the Premier League so there will be favouritism on them banking one in this one. A Man City/Man City half-time/ full-time wager will also appeal. City haven’t conceded a second-half home goal this term.

Burnley News and Form

The Clarets got one point from their opening five league games, but were showing good signs of recovery before the international break with a W2 D1 record. That was a massive lift for them and they picked up seven goals in that burst of games. They are going into two testing fixtures now as they face Chelse straight after this duel with the Citizens. Because the Clarets may not see too much of the ball both teams NOT to score is at 1/2 odds* (betting odds taken on October 16th, 2018 at 6:33 pm).

Burnley are W1 D1 L2 on their travels this season, conceding six goals and scoring in half of them. They have only picked up the two clean sheets this season home and away combined. Burnley have been level at 0-0 at half time in three of their four away games this season but we prefer the option of Manchester City winning at half time. Overall, Manchester City to win to nil is at 8/15 odds* (betting odds taken on October 16th, 2018 at 6:33 pm).

Manchester City v Burnley Head to Head

There was a big 3-0 home win for City over Burnley last season in the league and they took a three-goal winning margin over them at the Etihad in the FA Cup too. The Citizens are W2 D2 in their four previous Premier League home games against Burnley, winning the last two. From the previous eight Premier League meetings between the two clubs, Manchester City are W4 D3 L1 against Burnley.

Manchester City v Burnley Predictions

Manchester City to win: There’s no reason to not expect a home win to crop up in this one. The Citizens have such strong form going on home soil that it should be three points heading their way. Manchester City to win to nil.


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