What’s up everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for March 20th, 2018. Tuesday night, we get a decent slate with six games. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
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C: Karl-Anthony Towns: (9,500) Tonight, Towns is in a very nice spot at home vs The Clippers. First off, he is at home, where he is notoriously been better throughout his career, averaging 4.6 more DK PPG this season. Next, this matchup vs The Clippers is a very strong one, as they have allowed the 5th most DK points to centers this season and are a high current opponent +/- of 5.62 points. Plus, every game right now matters for The Wolves and he should approach 40 minutes tonight in this tight expected game vs The Clippers, who are just two games behind The Wolves for the eight spot in The West. (-3.5 MIN)
Not only should this be a very competitive tilt, but it currently has the highest O/U game total of the night by a notable eight points. (227 O/U) When we run the numbers, Towns has thrived in these type of situations this season, averaging 55.17 DK PPG in the three home games that have had an O/U game total of at least 220 points and a spread no bigger than five points. He should have a 50+ DK point game and KAT is the best high end value of Tuesday’s six game slate.
SG/SF: Josh Jackson: (6,300) The matchup isn’t great vs The Pistons (0.85 opponent +/-), but Jackson should play a big role tonight with center Tyson Chandler (neck), PF T.J. Warren (knee), and possibly SG Devin Booker (questionable, hand) all out. Booker and Chandler missed the last game and Warren left early, leading to career night for Jackson. He scored 36 points, six rebounds, four assists, two steals, and a block in 36 minutes of action vs The Warriors. (54.5 DK points) In this contest he posted a very high 35.7% usage rate. Booker hasn’t been ruled out yet, but I believe he sits out another game after only logging a limited practice on Sunday.
When these three starters have been off the court this season, Jackson has seen a 29.5% usage rate and is scoring 37 DK points per 36 minutes, which is right around what he should play tonight. (36.04 on Saturday) He scores right over a DK point per minute with this higher usage and regardless of the tougher matchup, Jackson is very underpriced in my opinion, especially when you factor in that this game is at home in Phoenix, where is scoring a solid 2.8 more DK PPG. I am expecting 35-40 DK points from the rookie tonight and he is a fine mid-tier target in all formats, that is a very flexible option with his multiple position eligibility.
PG/SG: Jrue Holiday: (8,200) Holiday sucked in the blowout win over The Celtics on Sunday (18.25 DK points), but he should bounce tonight vs The Mavs. Before this down game on Sunday, Holiday was on a tear, averaging 48.6 DK PPG in his last four starts. He had trouble vs The Celts wings defenders and their top ranked defense, but he should have no issues vs this Mavs team that is in tank mode right now and will be without their starting PG Dennis Smith Jr. (ankle)
Also, The Pelicans are fighting for their playoff lives and even though they favored by 8.5 points, Holiday should get right back to logging 35-40 minutes. Vegas agrees with me that he should get right back on track tonight, with him currently having Vegas prop score 41.82 points. To sum this all up, Holiday is a strong value play, that should be ignored because of his score on Sunday night.
SF/PF: P.J. Tucker: (3,700) Even though he struggled with foul trouble, eventually leading to him fouling out of the game, Tucker still managed to exceed value and score 21 DK points vs The Wolves on Sunday. They have been relying on him more in small ball lineups as of late, with PFG Ryan Anderson’s role decreasing, and before Sunday, where he logged 23.3 minutes, Tucker was averaging 30.2 MPG in his prior two. Also, for the month of March, he has been a better fantasy player, scoring 0.7 DK PPM, compared to his 0.62 DK PPM average for the season.
This isn’t a massive shift, but with close to 30 minutes of action, Tucker should approach 20 DK points tonight in this strong game setting vs The Blazers. This game is on the road, which is always a good thing for these Rockets as it should make the contest closer (-5 HOU) and it has an O/U game total of 217.5 points. He lacks upside, but Tucker is a very viable punt play at this price, that should get at least five times value on Tuesday night.
Also Consider: J.J. Barea (if active and starting for DSJ. He scored 25.97 DK PPG in the prior nine that the rookie has missed. This matchup is also extremely strong vs The Pelicans who are a high current opponent +/- of 5.84 points and a large 5.1 possession increase for The Mavs. He is one of the best values of the night if deemed active), Yogi Ferrell (I prefer JJ if he is active, but Ferrell averaged 25 DK PPG in the other nine games DSJ missed this season and as I just said, this matchup is excellent for guards), Reggie Bullock (will be playing up in pace vs The Suns and this matchup is a 3.7 opponent +/-), Terry Rozier (should rebound at home, where he is averaging 3.6 more DK PPG this year. He will naturally be lower owned after his game on Sunday), Marcus Morris/Jayson Tatum (usage and minutes will remain up with Irving, Smart, and Brown out), Alex Len (very cheap and should see a small uptick playing time with Warren out. This is also a a matchup they need his size vs Andre Drummond), CJ McCollum (39.3 DK PPG vs The Rockets this season and is averaging 37.5 DK PPG in the 21 games with a total over 215 points), Rudy Gobert (40+ in four straight and is in a great spot vs The Hawks who are a 4.76 opponent +/-. He has a very strong current Vegas prop score of 43.45 points), Deandre Jordan (The Wolves are the worst rated defense in their last three games and are a current opponent +/- of 4.48 points. He is averaging 41.9 DK PPG against them this season and he has implied score of 39.38 points based on his Vegas props), Austin Rivers (nice price considering how weak this Wolves defense has been as of late. He is averaging 41.6 DK PPG in their first two meetings of the season), Ricky Rubio (been better in his last two games averaging 41.2 DK PPG and this Hawks defense sucks at defending PGs, with a current opponent +/- of 4.35 points), Blake Griffin (50+ DK points in two of last three and is playing The Suns who he scored 49 DK points on earlier this season), Jeff Teague, and Troy Daniels. (if Booker is out. He started and scored 28.5 DK points in 29 minutes vs The Warriors with Booker out last game)