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Monday, December 17, 2018

Free betting tips and previews

Here you will find free betting tips and previews from the hottest betting experts online collected and compiled in one place. Same as in the Tiltbet betting app on AppStore.

Latest betting tips - page 6

Inter v AC Milan Predictions & Betting Odds – 21st October 2018

Inter v AC Milan Betting Tips – Serie A, 21st October 7.30pm

While there seven places separating third-placed Inter from 10th placed AC Milan in the Italian top flight, there are only four points between them. So this is a golden opportunity for AC Milan to put themselves up into a stronger position. They have good unbeaten form behind them, but Inter were on a hot streak before the international break. Read our predictions for Inter v AC Milan.

Inter v AC Milan Betting Odds*

Inter 11/8
AC Milan 2/1
Draw 9/4
* (Betting Odds were taken from bet365 on October 17th, 2018 at 9:55 p.m.)

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Table of Contents

Inter News and Form

Inter have put together a four-match winning streak in the league. So they have been stepping it up after a tough start. They have posted a W2 D1 L1 record at the San Siro so far, winning their last two there. In all but one of their home games for the season, they have scored exactly two goals in. Because we expect their rivals to push them hard, the Inter Milan 2-1 correct score option at 17/2 odds looks a solid proposition* (betting odds taken on October 17th, 2018 at 10:32 pm). They have netted six home goals this term, four of them coming in the second half of matches. Inter have yet to concede a first-half goal at home this term, so the half time draw looks solid.

There has been a trend with Inter in that all but one of their five league wins this season have been by a one-goal margin only. Inter to win by a one-goal margin is handily priced up at 3/1 odds* (betting odds taken on October 17th, 2018 at 10:32 pm). Mauro Icardi has three goals in his last three games for Inter but does have only the one home goal this term (from the penalty spot). They could open a massive seven-point lead over their great rivals with a victory and keep their hot streak going.

AC Milan News and Form

Gennaro Gattuso has Milan moving in the right direction, as at least they have been difficult to beat. They suffered a defeat against Napoli in a tough opening game to the season, but have remained undefeated in their six league games since (W3 D3). It would be a big statement if they pulled to within a point of Inter who start up in third place in the table. AC Milan would still have a game in hand over their rivals. The positive from AC is that they have scored more goals than Inter have managed in this season’s top flight despite playing a game less.

So that suggests that they can get at their rivals so for the Milan derby we are looking at both teams to score at 4/6 odds* (betting odds taken on October 17th, 2018 at 10:32 pm). AC Milan don’t yet have a clean sheet on the board this season in the league, conceding exactly one goal in five of their seven league games this season. They have only met one of the current top four sides this season, which ended in that defeat at Napoli on the opening weekend. AC Milan are W1 D2 L1 away from home this season. They did fire off seven goals in their two games before the international break.

Inter v AC Milan Head to Head

Inter collected a 3-2 home win over their rivals in this corresponding fixture last season, with the reverse ending in a 0-0 draw. Three of the last four Milan derby matches in Serie A have finished in a draw. Over the last six league meetings, Inter are narrowly ahead with a W2 D3 L1 record. Four of the last five meetings have actually gone over 2.5 goals.

Inter v AC Milan Predictions

Inter to win: We can only expect another tight battle between the two San Siro clubs. But at the end of the day, Inter do shade things in terms of overall quality here, even though their rivals have been going well. Home win.


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Alan Thomson’s Racing Tips: Guildhall can muck in for glory

GUILDHALL (4.05) fairly ploughed through the mud to justify favouritism at Ayr and with similar conditions forecast at Haydock he can score again.

Ray Beckett’s colt also impressed on debut when third to useful Rajinsky at Sandown at the end of August.

NEW GRADUATE (4.40) has a long absence to overcome but he thumped Preening when last seen at Thirsk in May. The runner-up has developed in a high-90s horse which will make New Graduate hard to beat if fully wound up.

AL KOUT (5.50) was beaten a neck by Garbanzo on his last visit to Haydock, handling the soft/heavy ground, and has since lost out narrowly at Newcastle. This is another opportunity to hit the winners’ circle. The Knot Is Tied and Buonarroti are again very closely matched on their latest Ayr clash.

ALEMARATALYOUM (3.35) was a bit disappointing at York last Friday but he has run two of his best races at Haydock. He beat subsequent winner War Glory in August and scored again over course and distance at the end of September.  Sod’s Law and Fastar were also near the top of my shortlist but the each-way call is Alemaratalyoum.

Recommended bets

  • Haydock 4.05 – Guildhall (5-4, Skybet)
  • Haydock 4.40 – New Graduate (5-4, bet365)
  • Haydock 5.50 – Al Kout (6-1, Coral)
  • Haydock 3.35 – Alemaratalyoum ew (10-1, bet365)


This post is originally from: mrfixitstips.co.uk

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Arsenal v Leicester Predictions & Betting Odds – 22nd October 2018

Arsenal v Leicester Betting Tips – Premier League, 22nd October 8.00pm

Will Arsenal be able to make it seven straight wins in the top flight as they return to action after the international break? They get an extra rest too with this being a Monday night fixture. Leicester haven’t had a bad season at all and they are likely to play their part in what could be a good open game. Read our predictions for Arsenal v Leicester.

Arsenal v Leicester Betting Odds*

Arsenal 4/9
Draw 7/2
Leicester 11/2
* (Betting Odds were taken from bet365 on October 15th, 2018 at 7:52 p.m.)

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Table of Contents

Arsenal News and Form

There has been no stopping Arsenal who are on a six-match winning streak in the Premier League. So things are going smoothly for them and the Gunners have scored at least two goals in each of their last seven games played. They banked a big 5-1 away win at Fulham in their last match before the international break. Being so fluent in front of goal, it is likely that they are going to carve out plenty of opportunities here and therefore over 2.5 goals looks a good proposition at 4/9 odds* (betting odds taken on October 18th, 2018 at 4:01 pm). All but three of their league games this season have made it over the line.

At home, they are on a three-match winning streak, each of those victories coming by a two-goal margin which is a trend to consider. Arsenal can be supported at 7/2 to win by that margin in this fixture* (betting odds taken on October 18th, 2018 at 4:01 pm). Another trend with the Gunners seen them having been drawing at halftime and winning at full time in each of their last six games. There are doubts over Danny Welbeck and Aaron Ramsey, while Pierre Emerick Aubameyang could return to the starting eleven.

Leicester News and Form

You never quite know what you are going to get out of Leicester as they have produced a W4 L4 record so far this season. In their final match before the international break, they lost 2-1 at home against Everton. Away from home, the Foxes have posted a mixed W2 L2 record. They have had no trouble scoring this season, as they have found the back of the net all of their matches, so both teams to score at 4/7 odds* (betting odds taken on October 18th, 2018 at 4:01 pm) is a solid proposition. Jamie Vardy has two goals in his last three games for the Foxes and is pretty consistent and reliable as a goalscorer option.

On their travels, Leicester have produced seven goals in their four games, with three of those four fixtures ending over 2.5 goals. They have two clean sheets under their belt this season, one of them on the road. They have produced at least two goals in each of their last three road games in the top flight and 86% of their away goals have happened in the second half of matches. The Foxes will be missing Wes Morgan through suspension while there Demarai Gray and Matty James will also be out on the sidelines.

Arsenal v Leicester Head to Head

There was a home win for each in last season’s meetings, which produced a total of eleven goals in two thrilling fixtures. Arsenal took a 4-3 success over the Foxes at the Emirates and that leaves them on a seven-match winning streak on home soil against them. So they have a perfect Premier League home record against the Foxes. Arsenal have won six of the last seven Premier League meetings home and away games the Foxes (D1).

Arsenal v Leicester Predictions

Arsenal to win: Both teams have been reliable in front of goal this season, but Arsenal look to have the competitive edge, especially on home soil. They are pretty solid value for a good three points and an Arsenal to win to nil & both teams to score option appeals.


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WTA Finals Betting 2018 Winner Odds & Predictions

WTA Finals – October 21st to 28th, 2018

It is off to Singapore for the start of the 2018 WTA Finals which is a week-long event for the eight players who have done enough over the course of the season, to qualify. This will be the final year that Singapore hosts the indoor event before it moves on. It is US Open winner Naomi Osaka who is the 10/3 favourite for the WTA Finals 2018* (betting odds taken on October 18th, 2018 at 5:42 pm).

WTA Finals 2018 Odds*

Naomi Osaka 10/3
Caroline Wozniacki 5/1
Petra Kvitova 5/1
Angelique Kerber 11/2
Karolina Pliskova 13/2
Sloane Stephens 8/1
Elina Svitolina 8/1
Kiki Bertens 10/1
* (betting odds taken on October 18th, 2018 at 5:42 pm)

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Table of Contents

Tournament Format

The format of the tournament sees the eight players split into two groups of four. The groups are then played on a round-robin format. The top two players from each of the groups move through to the semi-final knockout stage. The first-placed player of one group faces the second-placed finisher of the other group and vice-versa.

Qualification

Points are collected from the four Grand Slam Tournament, four Premier Mandatory events and then the best two results from the Premier 5 level tournaments count. The points from their best six finishes from other events are then added.

Halep Withdraws

The tournament has lost World Number One Simona Halep. The Romanian won her maiden Grand Slam title this year and was the first player to qualify for the WTA Finals. She also qualified with more points than anyone else. She has withdrawn because of a back injury in a recent training session ahead of Wuhan.

Naomi Osaka

The biggest return of points for Osaka was her US Open win, which came out of the blue. That landed her a massive 2000 points and it added to her 1000 collected from a victory at Indian Wells in a Premier Mandatory as well. So those really are the big success which put her in her first WTA Finals. She reached one other final across the course of the season on the WTA Tour. She was carrying form on the recent Asian swing of the season, reaching the final of the Toray Pan Pacific and then the semis of the China Open. But then she withdrew from a Japan event because of injury.

Caroline Wozniacki

Wozniacki started the season with a bang in beating Simona Halep in the Australian Open final. She reached the WTA Finals with the third-best points haul of the eight as she also won in Beijing and at the Eastbourne international in the summer. However, it has to be said, the form of the Dane largely slipped away over the second half of the season, looking less and less of a threat to anyone. That was until she stormed back with a win in Beijing. Will that revival at the China Open at the start of October put her in good stead? She is the reigning champion of the WTA Finals.

Petra Kvitova

Kvitova collected three regular titles this season on the two, but a Premier 5 and the Madrid Premier Mandatory title. So quietly the Czech star put a lot together. But all of it was over the first half of the season. Much like Wozniacki she slipped out of the limelight over the second half of the season. Kvitova produced four disappointing appearances at the Grand Slams this season. Kvitova won the Finals in 2011 and was a losing finalist in 2015.

Angelique Kerber

The German had another successful season under her belt. She claimed the Wimbledon title over Serena Williams and her other title for the year came in January in Sydney. But she had a semi-final at the Australian Open and a quarter final at the French Open. She reached the quarter finals in two of the four Premier Mandatory events and two-quarter finals in the Premier 5. Very steady, very consistent and should be a threat. Kerber’s best finish in a WTA Finals was a losing finalist in 2016.

Karolina Pliskova

Pliskova couldn’t build on her big 2017 and it has been relatively muted from her. She was pretty consistent in the big events, collecting two quarter-final places at the Grand Slams. She got two quarter finals and a semi-final appearance in the four Premier Mandatory events. Her two titles came at the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix in April and the Toray Pan Pacific in September. Pliskova was a losing semi-finalist last year on her debut.

Sloane Stephens

Like Osaka, two big results got Stephens to the WTA Finals. For her, it was the points haul from winning Miami (Premier Mandatory) and her run to the final of the French Open where she was beaten by Halep. She reached one other final, which was that the Premier 5 level at the Rogers Cup in Canada. This is her debut.

Elina Svitolina

Svitolina gambled in not paying in the final week of the season, the chance at points. It worked out for her though as she clung on to her place at the WTA Finals. Svitolina won three titles during the course of the season, the highest of them being the Italian Open (Premier 5). Her best Grand Slam finish was a quarter final at the Australian Open. A bit like Pliskova, she didn’t push on after a successful 2017. Didn’t get out of the group last year on her debut.

Kiki Bertens

The Dutch player gets into the WTA Finals for the first time ever because of Halep’s withdrawal. She has had a strong season, winning three titles (one Premier 5) and she reached the final of Madrid (Premier Mandatory). It is a big occasion for her and she is the first Dutch player to make it to the top ten in the world since 1996.

Predictions

Who fits the bill the best? The tennis season is long and players like Kvitova can come out strong and fade away. So you are looking at form over the second half or even the final third of the season really. Wozniacki had gone quiet but her recent win at the China Open and with her being the reigning champion, gives her renewed appeal. A lot of it.

The same can be said of Pliskova who raised her end of season appeal with a win at Toray Pan Pacific over Osaka. That was out of the blue, much like Wozniacki’s win in China. The fact that it was over the in-form Osaka says a lot about Pliskova when she is on her game. So we are simply going to stick with that successful current form and tip her to have a good run as well.

As for splitting them, Wozniacki did a little more in her recent title and we are going to go with a WTA Finals title defence, which isn’t unusual at this event. Kim Clijsters, Justine Henin and Serena Williams have all achieved that since 2002.


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98th-minute Newport goal gives punter £84k acca win

During the recent international break, where the focus shifts away from much of the domestic action that still goes on, a punter at Ladbrokes landed a huge return from an acca on lower league action from England and Scotland.

The punter, from Dundee, netted a big £84,000 return from a seven-fold accumulator during the recent international break. All of the selections were Match Outright & Both Teams To Score selections.

That’s really pushing things to a difficult level. The teams backed for a win across the bets was Portsmouth, Colchester United, Newport County, Northampton Town, Solihull Moors, Dundee United and Elgin City.

As the 90 minutes were approaching up and down the fixture list, only five of the seven selections were winning. But Andy Williams netted a 97th winner for Northampton, while Newport scored even later in the 98th minute to give the punter the win.

The better scooped a grand total of £84,843.73 from the £5 stake.

Alex Apati of Ladbrokes said: “It was very much a weekend for favourite-backers in the lower leagues of football across the UK and while plenty of accas landed, this has to be the biggest and best we’ve seen for some time.”

Winning Selections

Portsmouth to beat Wimbledon & Both Teams to Score

Colchester to beat Crawley & Both Teams to Score

Newport to beat Stevenage & Both Teams to Score

Northampton to beat Forest Green & Both Teams to Score

Solihull Moors to beat Ebbsfleet & Both Teams to Score

Dundee United to beat Partick & Both Teams to Score

Elgin to beat Cowdenbeath & Both Teams to Score

TOTAL STAKE – £5

TOTAL RETURNS – £84,843.728

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Champions Day 2018 Racing Winner Odds & Predictions

Champions Day – Ascot, October 20th, 2018

One of the biggest days of British racing will be with us this weekend for the Champions Day 2018. This is a meeting at Ascot which has been held every year since 2001 and it is the end of season highlight of flat racing.

It is the richest day in British racing with the finals of the five divisions of the series running, along with a one-mile handicap.

Table of Contents

Races

British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2) 2m
British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) 6f
British Champions Fillies’ and Mares’ Stakes (Group 1) 1m 4f
Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1) 1m
Champion Stakes (Group 1) 1m 2f
Balmoral Handicap Handicap 1m

Qipco British Champions Fillies and Mares Stakes Betting Odds

Lah Ti Dar 11/8
Kitesurf 9/2
Coronet 5/1
Magical 7/1
Hydrangea 7/1
Pilaster 12/1
God Given 20/1
Bye Bye Baby 40/1
Broadway 50/1
Sizzling 50/1
Flattering 100/1
* (betting odds taken on October 18th, 2018 at 6:45 pm)

Lah Ti Dar came home second in the Leger, a really strong Leger and that which has left her in good standing in the betting for this one. The inexperience in her came through though and couldn’t quite find that extra when she needed it. So she may be worth swerving for this one and Kitesurf and Magical both are serious contenders. Kitesurf missed the Arc de Triomphe in favour of this and the quicker the pace, the bigger a threat. Magical had a strange race at the Paris Longchamp running out wide to finish tenth but actually stayed pretty well. Kitesurf, with back to back wins, gets our nod at 9/2* (betting odds taken on October 18th, 2018 at 6:45 pm).

Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup Betting Odds

Stradivarius 5/6
Flag of Honour 9/4
Thomas Hobson 9/1
Sir Erec 12/1
Mount Moriah 14/1
Desert Skyline 33/1
Cypress Creek 33/1
* (betting odds taken on October 18th, 2018 at 6:45 pm)

With four wins from four in 2018 Stradivarius takes top billing here. There’s little surprise in that and not a lot of punters will oppose. However, there could be soft ground at Ascot on the weekend to slow him up. With Stradivarius not having won by a big margin in 2018 is it worth looking beyond? Flag of Honour is seen as the main challenger after a win at the Irish St Leger, but there was a fairly weak field there. That did follow up a success at Curragh in the Irish St Leger Trial Stakes. Sir Erec has a bit of form and makes nice each way value at 12/1* (betting odds taken on October 18th, 2018 at 6:45 pm) here after back to back wins and won’t mind the slower ground. Mount Moriah was fourth in this race last year and will like the softer ground. It’s an easy way on Sir Erec to oppose Stradivarius if the going is soft.

Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes Betting Odds

The Tin Man 11/4
Librisa Breeze 5/1
Harry Angel 5/1
Brando 8/1
Tasleet 8/1
Sir Dancealot 14/1
Limato 16/1
Projection 16/1
Son Of rest 16/1
Sands Of Mali 20/1
Speak In Colours 20/1
Don Juan Triumphant 22/1
Dream of Dreams 28/1
Bacchus 33/1
* (betting odds taken on October 18th, 2018 at 6:45 pm)

This is one tough competitive field to pick from. It is probably the toughest out of all the races going off on the card on Champions Day. Librisa Breeze has held solid at 5/1 odds* (betting odds taken on October 18th, 2018 at 6:45 pm) despite a poor run out last time. He has the class and turn of foot though as long as enough rest has been given, which was the issue with his poor run at Newbury. Harry Angel doesn’t have the Ascot form, not compared to Librisa Breeze anyway and is worth a pass. The Tin Man has had a busy 2018 with two wins from four, his lowest place finish at fourth. He got the better of Brando by half a length at Haydock at the start of September 32Red Sprint Cup Stakes and he was fifth here behind Librisa Breeze last year. Brando opened 2018 with a win over Sir Dancealot but has since lost to Harry Angel and The Tin Man. Librisa Breeze still appeals for us.

Qipco Champion Stakes Betting Odds

Cracksman 5/6
Crystal Ocean 9/4
Capri 13/2
Monarchs Glen 12/1
Verbal Dexterity 20/1
Rhododendron 33/1
Subway Dancer 100/1
Maverick Wave 100/1
* (betting odds taken on October 18th, 2018 at 6:45 pm)

One of the star attractions of the day is going to be Cracksman who won this last year. He was simply brilliant and untouchable twelve months ago, but it’s not quite the same for him at the moment. He hasn’t been on top form and his pace isn’t there, so that is why right out of the gate our attention is going to Crystal Ocean. He landed a second at the King George with a brilliant time and while he was below par at Kempton, he should be strong and fresher for this. He won’t have a problem with any kind of softer ground going. Capri does have the staying power at this distance, but Crystal Ocean’s form right now is good enough to take down the favourite.

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Betting Odds

Roaring Lion 9/4
Recoletos 5/1
Lord Glitters 6/1
Laurens 11/2
Addeybb 8/1
Beat The Bank 12/1
Happily 12/1
Lightning Spear 12/1
Century Dream 18/1
Romanised 44/1
Aljazzi 33/1
Bar 50/1
* (betting odds taken on October 18th, 2018 at 6:45 pm)

Roaring Lion could have shown up in the Champion Stakes but is likely to go here, if he runs at all. If he is in, then we are all over him getting the success in this race in what is going to be a big field. That would have been the same if he was in the Champion Stakes. Recoletos will prefer the softer ground and was solid at Ascot last year. There is more of a staying question over him than the favourite. Laurens is well work look after beating Alpha Centauri at Leopardstown and then at Newmark over Happily.


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DraftKings NBA Picks – October 18th

Welcome back everybody. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings picks for October 18th. Tonight, is your classic small Thursday night slate, with only three games to utilize. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.

Top Pick:

PG: John Wall: (8,200)

Wall is fully healthy right now and is starting the season off at home, where we all know he is a far more productive player. Over the last four seasons, Wall has seen some sizable home/away splits, averaging 3.2 more DK PPG in Washington. In his last 10 home games of last season (including the playoffs), he was a monster, scoring 55.5 DK PPG. The matchup vs The Heat isn’t appealing if looking back to last year (8th in efficiency), but they are dealing with a slew of injuries right now, specifically to key defenders like Justice Winslow (hamstring) and James Johnson. (hernia)

The Wizards currently have an implied team total of 109.25 points and are favored by 5.5 points. In the 18 homes last year that Washington was projected to score over 109 and were expected to win, Wall scored 46.22 DK PPG. This is the type of score we can expect tonight, with a ceiling close to 60 DK points, if he can pick up a double double or triple double. (nine double doubles in his last 13 games)

Value Picks:

PG/SG: Cameron Payne: (3,600)

Payne is your free square of the day. Starting PG Kris Dunn has been ruled out for personal reasons and Payne has been named the starter for The Bulls’ season opener vs The Sixers. When Dunn sat last season, it was Jerian Grant who usually started at point, but with him gone to The Magic and Payne now fully healthy, Payne should see close to 30 minutes, with obvious upside for more. (Lauri Markkanen and Denzel Valentine are also out)

In the 13 games Payne played in with Dunn out last season, he averaged 22.65 DK PPG off the bench. (0.87 DK PPM) The matchup vs The Sixers is far from ideal (3rd in efficiency last season), but Payne should still score 20+ DK points, making him a plug and play for this small slate.

PG/SG: Zach LaVine: (6,400)

There was never a full game LaVine played in without Markkanen (elbow), Valentine (ankle), and Dunn in 2017, but the numbers he produced when they were off the floor were tremendous. It’s a small sample of 81 minutes, but in that time, without these three, Nikola Mirotic (traded), and Sean Kilpatrick (FA), LaVine scored 1.16 DK PPM, which is a team high 0.4 increase from his season average.

He was dealing with a thigh injury during the preseason, but is expected to be a full go tonight. Without a doubt, he will lead this team in usage and I think we see 20+ shots from LaVine. He should put up 35-40 DK points with this type of usage, even in this tough spot vs The Sixers.

C: Hassan Whiteside: (7,000)

Whiteside started the season off last night, with a double double, of 12 points, 18 rebounds, two blocks, and a steal in the loss to The Magic. (41.5 DK points) He logged 33.4 minutes and even though this is the second night of a back to back, he should play right around 30 minutes again, with The Heat currently thin. This spot vs The Wizards is one they are going to need his size, with newly acquired Dwight Howard making his deubt.

Howard is dealing with a sore back, and is questionable, but I think he ends up playing. Nonetheless, Whiteside’s paint presence will be needed, even if its Ian Mahinmi (below) who is playing the five for Washington. With the 1.5 point double double bonus on DraftKings, Whiteside is always worth a look when he’s under $8,000.

Also Consider:

SF/PF: LeBron James: (10,800)

I wish The King was making his Laker debut at The Staples Center, but either way, I am expecting a show from him in his first real game in the purple and gold. His counterparts are an upgrade from last year with The Cavs, but I expect a similar usage from LeBron this season. (58.4 DK PPG and 31.9% usage rate) The Blazers made few changes to their roster this summer and in his two contests vs them in 2017, James averaged 61.3 DK PPG. He isn’t a necessity, but if building multiple lineups, I would make sure to have some exposure to James.

PG/SF: Ben Simmons: (9,400)

In a high 42.4 minutes, Simmons flirted with a triple double in the season opener vs The Celtics on Tuesday. (61.75 DK points, 21.1% usage) The shot remained ugly, but he was extremely active right out of the gate. The 42.4 minutes was also very encouraging, because in all honesty, this game was over with five minutes remaining. This is a positive sign that even if The Sixers create a decent lead tonight (-11.5), Simmons should still play a 35+ minutes. Plus, he was a far better player at home in his “rookie” season (4.3 more DK PPG) and was unstoppable vs The Bulls. (62.4 DK PPG. They were 28th in defensive efficiency)

SG: Bradley Beal: (6,800)

The trend is the same with Beal as it is for Wall. He is simply a better fantasy play at home, averaging 4.0 more DK PPG there last season. He topped 40 DK points in his last three home tilts and averaged 39.8 DK PPG in seven matchups vs The Heat.

SF/PF: Dario Saric: (5,500)

Most are going to look at Saric’s 13.5 DK point game on Tuesday and shy away, but this was all due to bad foul trouble from start to finish. He only played 22.5 minutes because of this and I am expecting him to get back to his normal 30-35 minute role on Thursday. He averaged 30 DK PPG last season and in the three times he played this 28th ranked Bull’s defense, he scored 36.5 DK PPG.

SF/PF: Kyle Kuzma: (5,500)

Kuzma was great in the preseason, averaging 15.8 points and 3.6 rebounds in 25.9 MPG. He averaged nearly five threes a game (4.92) and I think he is going to be a serious three point threat with James as his teammate. The rates are going to be different, but he averaged 29.3 DK PPG last year. The floor is low for such a scoring dependent player, but he is one of the better values of this full strength Lakers’ squad.

C: Ian Mahinmi: (4,600)

Not the greatest price, but he is viable if Howard sits. He averages 0.81 DK PPM and would have to play at least 25 minutes, to matchup with Whiteside. This was a strong spot for center last year, ranking as a 3.66 opponent +/-.

SG/SF: Justin Holiday: (4,300)

Holiday will start tonight at SF for The Bull. With both Valentine and Dunn out, Holiday could be in line for heavy minutes. In the four games without these two last year, Holiday scored 24.75 DK PPG and in the one game with these two and Markkanen out, he scored 23.25 DK points in 32.2 minutes. In the situation that these players were all off the floor, not full game samples, Holiday scored an efficient 1.05 DK PPM. The matchup is ugly vs The Sixers, but the minutes he is going to see outweigh any concerns. I prefer the $400 discount with Holiday than the more popular Robert Covington.

C: Wendell Carter: (4,200)

Due to the injuries The Bulls are dealing with, Carter should play 25-30 minutes vs The Sixers. It is unknown right now if he or Robin Lopez will start, but either way, Carter is very much in play, and I would actually almost prefer if he came off the bench, to see less Embiid. The Duke product was solid in the preseason (7/5/2 in 21.1 MPG) and he should be close to a DK PPM player. The Bulls should have a tighter rotation tonight, making Carter a strong cheap option, that has six to seven times value.

PLAY THIS LINEUP


This post is originally from: www.thesportsgeek.com

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Alex Jack’s Racing Tips: Friday 19th October

With the Flat season coming to a close, we have two tips over jumps and one on the all-weather at Newcastle on Friday.

14:35 Fakenham

Miles To Milan to Win and Each-Way @ 15/8 - BET NOW

Trainer Olly Murphy can boast an impressive 42 per cent strike-rate (8/19) in handicap hurdles at this venue in recent years and his Miles To Milan can defy top weight and follow up his recent chase victory at Ayr (3m, good) in the process.

The selection has been absent since that chase victory back in May but ran a decent race on debut for this yard when finishing fourth over an extended 2m3f in a handicap hurdle contest at Doncaster (soft) back in January.

Tactics-wise, the selection should be able to sit in behind Max Liebermann, who looks the most likely to make the running. It's just his third start since joining this stable and, while the eight-year-old drops back in distance here, he represents a stable who do well with their recruits from other yards and he can improve on his trainer's 31 per cent strike-rate (5/16) in recent weeks on his return to hurdling.

14:55 Wincanton

Abbreviate to Win and Each-Way @ 9/1 - BET NOW

Abbreviate proved a disappointment when pulling up over 3m on good going at Ffos Las on his most recent appearance at the end of May.

Prior to that the seven-year-old had finished a good second in a handicap chase over this course and distance on good going and it may well have been the case that the application of a visor contributed to the below-par effort at Ffos Las.

The cheekpieces that were worn for much of last season, including for that course and distance second, return here and he represents a stable who come into this race with a 43 per cent strike-rate (3/7) in recent weeks.

With both the trip and forecast underfoot conditions in his favour, Abbreviate looks capable of defying top weight and in the process registering a first victory over fences at the ninth time of asking in what looks a competitive handicap chase.

18:45 Newcastle

Counter Spirit to Win and Each-Way @ 6/5 - BET NOW

Newmarket trainer Ismail Mohammed can boast a good record with his visitors to Newcastle racecourse with a 36 per cent strike-rate (7/19) on the all-weather at the venue in recent years.

Among those winners was Counter Spirit, the trainer's last runner at this venue when taking a 7f handicap contest last month. Counter Spirit has been in great form in recent times, having finished in the first three in each of her last five starts, a spell which has also included a victory by 1L in a 7f handicap at Wolverhampton in August.
 
Sent off favourite for both of those victories, the daughter of Invincible Spirit shaped as if she would handle this step up to 1m when racing prominently prior to recording an impressive 2L victory last time out. A rise of 6lb for that success doesn’t look overly harsh and making just her sixth handicap start she remains open to improvement.

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European NAP – Sardinians to come unstuck on Sunday

EUROPEAN football fanatic Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) is chasing a fifth consecutive European NAP winner on Sunday when he heads to Serie A.

Fiorentina v Cagliari | Sunday 21st October 2018, 17:00 | Eleven Sports

Sunday’s Serie A showdown from Florence between Fiorentina and Cagliari will be a poignant and emotional occasion. The two clubs were where Davide Astori spent most of his career and the encounter will be marked by a joint commemoration of his life beforehand.

The defender and La Viola skipper died suddenly in his sleep in the Fiorentina team hotel in Udine back in March, aged just 31. There will be a special choreography in the stands and a commemorative award handed over to his parents at the Stadio Artemio Franchi.

Home head coach Stefano Pioli says Astori is “still with us” as they look to cement their position in the upper echelons of the league table. And just this week the Fiorentina boss reaffirmed his commitment to challenging for European qualification, as well as the Coppa Italia title.

Fiorentina impressing

Thus far, La Viola are one of the surprise packages of the season. The side signed off for the international break with another exciting and enterprising effort but failed to make their pressure count at Lazio, losing 1-0 despite winning the shot and xG count, and firing in 11 attempts from inside the penalty area.

Fiorentina paid for their poor finishing but have impressed in four devilishly difficult away trips to Lazio, Inter Milan, Napoli and Sampdoria. Pioli’s posse may have garnered a solitary point from those games as guests, but La Viola have competed valiantly for large swathes of all four fixtures and deserve our respect.

A return to their Stadio Artemio Franchi base should do the trick, particularly with a home contest against wretched travellers Cagliari on Sunday evening. The hosts have a perfect record in Florence this term with four wins from four by an aggregate 12-1, silencing three of their four visitors.

The hosts have a fully fit squad available and boast an excellent W10-D2-L2 return when welcoming bottom-half teams under Pioli’s watch, keeping nine clean sheets. With that in mind, I’m happy to support the hosts at 5/6 (Ladbrokes) in a match featuring Under 4.5 Goals.

Two of Fiorentina’s six goals they’ve shipped at this early stage came via a penalty and an effort from outside of the box, whilst La Viola are giving up just 0.54 xG from open play per-game. Meanwhile, no Serie A side have faced as few shots on-target as the hosts.

Sardinians to come unstuck

Considering Cagliari have scored once on the road this season, the win ‘to nil’ is certainly an option. The case becomes stronger when considering the Sardinians have posted 10 losses from their past 12 trips to top-half teams, failing to score on seven occasions and being beaten by at least two goals in seven contests.

However, I prefer the security of having a potential away goal onside.

Rolando Maran’s men sealed a welcome 2-0 home triumph over Bologna before the international break but in truth have struggled to make major inroads in the final-third. Their 0.48 xG from open play per-game is third-worst in Serie A and only three clubs have registered fewer shots, or on-target efforts.

Even so, Maran is renowned as a defensive organiser from his time at Chievo and can keep Cagliari competitive here. The Rossoblu are giving up 0.85 xG from open play per-game and suffered 2-0 defeats in three of their four away days, and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see the Islanders go down bravely.

Adding the Under 4.5 Goals angle allows us to have the Fiorentina winning correct scores of 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, 2-1 and 3-1 onside, results that have landed in all bar one of their 12 triumphs at the Franchi under Pioli, as well as 44 (86%) of their past 51 home victories since the start of 2013/14.

Best Bets

Fiorentina v Cagliari – Fiorentina to win and Under 4.5 Goals (5/6 Ladbrokes)

Cagliari European NAP Fiorentina Italian Football Italian football tips Mark O'Haire Serie A Serie A tips

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NBA DFS FanDuel Picks – October 18th


I didn’t deliver a winning lineup last night in daily fantasy basketball, but I sure did hand out some solid NBA DFS picks. Goran Dragic, Blake Griffin, LaMarcus Aldridge, Kawhi Leonard and even Trae Young were all good to great last night, while Tim Hardaway Jr. was one of the best plays of the entire slate.

My lone gaffes were Alex Len and Chandler Parsons. Len was a tough pill to swallow as a chalky value pick, but with the new “drop your lowest score” aspect to FanDuel’s game, Parsons at the bare minimum price was a total non-issue.

It was a good team on the surface, but it didn’t take home the big prize. Let’s go back to the drawing board for Thursday’s three-game NBA DFS slate at FanDuel:

PG: Cameron Payne – Chicago Bulls ($4k)

Kris Dunn is out and Payne will draw the start. He’s an immediate free square option with FanDuel’s “lowest score dropped” rule. Payne is facing a likely blowout on the road, but he’s dirt cheap. Here’s to hoping he can pile it up early before Chicago’s almost certain housing.

Rajon Rondo is an elite pivot here at $4.5k if he starts and quite possibly even if he doesn’t.

PG: John Wall – Washington Wizards ($9.3k)

There are three elite PG options tonight, but I’m not paying $11k for Ben Simmons in what I think will be a blowout. Damian Lillard is the other option, but with Wall being the cheapest and in Washington’s season opener in D.C., that’s where I’m going.

This isn’t the greatest matchup, but Wall averaged almost 47 fantasy points per game at home last year and looked ready to rock in the preseason.

SG: Bradley Beal – Washington Wizards ($8.2k)

This Heat/Wiz game projects to be the closest of three games tonight, so I’ll get another Wizards scorer in Beal here. He’s a solid price given his 40+ fantasy point upside and he had some nice success (39 fantasy points per game) across four meetings with the Heat last year.

If you want value, try to figure out the Lakers SG situation or roll the dice with Zach LaVine ($6.8k). LaVine’s matchup is garbage but he’ll be chucking all day in Philly.

SG: C.J. McCollum – Portland Trail Blazers ($7.1k)

I don’t think you have to pay up at SG spots, but unless we catch wind of what the Lakers are doing that’s probably where I’m headed. McCollum is a potentially elite play at home against a Lakers team that doesn’t yet know their identity. He averaged over 20 real points per game against them last year, too, so he feels like a rock solid play.

SF: LeBron James – Los Angeles Lakers ($11.7k)

King James in La La Land, everybody. I don’t know how you fade him in this spot. He’s on a new team and they’re on the road in their season opener, but he offers more upside than anyone on this slate. Ben Simmons is a great pivot, but I don’t think we get four quarters of him and he’s at a different position.

No other SF touches what James can do, so I’m eating the salary and moving along.

SF: Derrick Jones Jr. – Miami Heat ($3.5k)

This is a free square candidate. Jones started last night and only logged 17 minutes, but thanks to a rash of Miami injuries, he’s a decent bet to see 20+ minutes. If he isn’t any good, it’s fine. He’ll just be the guy dropped from my lineup at the end of the night.

PF: Dario Saric – Philadelphia 76ers ($5.9k)

Saric got off to a hot start before running into foul trouble in his last game. Hopefully he can do so again and actually stay on the court. He’s at home with a nice matchup and is a fine price. I think he’s in for a solid outing, but like most Sixers, don’t anticipate him playing all four quarters.

PF: Kyle Kuzma – Los Angeles Lakers ($6k)

I’ll keep it balanced at PF tonight. Markieff Morris ($5k flat) is another solid option, but Kuz is a great shooter and has a nice role with the Lake Show. He should be busy tonight against the Blazers, a team in which he put up 30 fantasy points per game against last year.

C: Ian Mahinmi – Washington Wizards ($3.5k)

Here’s a third free square. Obviously the plan is for two of these guys to actually work out, but this is the GPP life so we need to live with some risk. Dwight Howard (back) is no lock to suit up tonight, so if he’s out the Wiz may end up handing Mahinmi a ton of minutes to try to stop Hassan Whiteside.

Joel Embiid leads the way at center and there are quite a few options at the position tonight, but why pass up a minimum play if he’s in for a big role? Be sure to keep tabs on Dwight’s status if you decide to go this route.

PLAY THIS LINEUP


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Chicago Bulls vs. Philadelphia 76ers NBA Pick – October 18th

The Milwaukee Bucks made me sweat for it last night, but they panned out nicely in the end, returning solid value on a -130 moneyline. I originally liked them to cover, but the lines moved just slightly and it got me onto their moneyline. Despite being up big all game in Charlotte, Milwaukee gave up 39 points to Kemba Walker and nearly blew it.

Fortunately they hung on for the win and that pushed my NBA picks record to 2-0 on the young season.

I only make picks for the Eastern Conference here at The Sports Geek, but luckily I get two games to look at one a tiny three-game schedule. Of the trio, the game that calls to me resides in Philly, where the 76ers will make host the Chicago Bulls in their home opener.

The Sixers got embarrassed by the Celtics in Boston in their season opener, so they are going to be playing angry in this one. Chicago was already the obvious underdog, but losing star point guard Kris Dunn (personal) and also not having utility man Denzel Valentine off the bench hurts them a lot in this one. Let’s see what the best bet is there:

Chicago Bulls (+11.5, -105) @ Philadelphia 76ers (-11.5, -115) Total: 220 (-115)

I won’t waste a ton of time here. Not having Dunn is pretty big. He is a solid defender, he can create offense and he can score. That’s going to put a ton of pressure of backup point guard Cameron Payne, who simply isn’t that good. It also forces Zach LaVine to step up as a scorer.

With Ben Simmons’ length and a pesky defender like Robert Covington on the outside, I’m not anticipating big outings from these guys. Throw in an elite interior presence like Joel Embiid, and I struggle to find where the Bulls are going to get their offense from here.

Chicago is also without big man Lauri Markkanen, who will miss up to a month with an elbow issue. The Bulls can be feisty, but I’d really only be interested in them if this game were at the United Center. They do still have LaVine, Jabari Parker and some bench scorers, but they are no match for a mad Sixers squad tonight.

Philly is at home, won’t want to fall to 0-2 and they’re also completely healthy where it matters. If you want to lean on some ATS data, consider that the Sixers were the third best team in that department a year ago and specifically went 27-14 ATS when favored at home. Chicago was pretty good (16-14) as road underdogs, but they’re severely depleted and running into an impossible situation.

ATS data aside, the Sixers wrecked at home last year. They were 30-11 on their home floor last year and I expect to be close to that dominant in front of their home crowd again this year as they try to compete for a title.

This is admittedly a steep spread, but Sportsbetting.ag offers the best line at -11.5 and I think it’s absolutely doable. The Sixers have way too much talent to handle and they even have a slew of viable stoppers on the defensive end of the court.

Barring something crazy like Dunn still suiting up and/or some big name Sixers being scratched, I love Philly to cover here at a solid -115 price.

Pick: Philadelphia 76ers ATS (-11.5, -115)


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FanDuel MLB DFS Playoff Picks – October 18th

The MLB playoffs rage on with Thursday night’s clash between the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox. The two just went to battle last night, but are out there again for another meeting. If you’re still trying to win cash playing daily fantasy baseball, you can attempt to do so in FanDuel’s one-game showdown contest.

I’ll do my best to walk you through the best team for tonight’s game five tilt. Let’s get to it:

MVP (x1.5 pts): Alex Bregman – Houston Astros ($9k)

Two elite pitchers take the mound tonight and Houston is facing elimination with Boston up in this series, 3-1. The Red Sox probably smell blood and I wish you luck actually nailing the bats that score in this one, but I have to lean toward Houston saving face at home.

Boston is probably going to win this series, but they are not a lock to win another game on the road here to force their way to the World Series. I think there’s a chance the Astros keep this thing going and with southpaw David Price on the mound, their powerful righties could potentially have a field day.

It starts with Bregman, who owns a nasty .407 wOBA and .247 ISO versus lefties. David Price is good, but he can give up contact. I’ll take a shot on Bregman powering the Astros into a game six in Boston.

IF: Ian Kinsler – Boston Red Sox ($4.5k)

I need at least one Boston bat, so I’ll dump here and save with Kinsler. He isn’t even for sure starting as I write this, so be sure to check in on that before finalizing your lineup for the night. He and his Red Sox brethren take on Justin Verlander on the road, so I don’t feel particularly great about him but he is cheap.

OF: George Springer – Houston Astros ($8.5k)

I’ll head back to my full four-man Houston stack and Springer is another guy (.358 wOBA, .190 ISO) that fares well against left-handed pitching. His power on that side of the plate hasn’t been that amazing this year, but he still offers plenty of pop and will hopefully show up in this spot. Consider pivoting up to J.D. Martinez or Mookie Betts here if you feel so inclined.

UTIL: Tyler White – Houston Astros ($5k)

White is surprisingly cheap despite a nasty ISO (.288) against lefties. That leads the Astros and I have to think he starts tonight. He’s not the most efficient stick, but Houston needs him here and I’m going to bet you will as well.

UTIL: Jose Altuve – Houston Astros ($8k)

If you’d like to cram a big Boston bat in here, just pivot to Carlos Correa and get off of Springer. I prefer the full Astros stack, but like I always say, you can mix and match my MLB DFS picks with your own. You don’t have to just copy the lineup you see here. This is me chasing my favorite picks to build a lineup, but your process doesn’t have to end here.

Altuve isn’t exactly the best against lefties, but he’s a very good hitter and offers some pop. With Houston’s season on the line, I don’t think I can fade him.

Summary

It’s pretty simple; Houston is at home and they need to win if they want to keep playing. Whether they do or not, I anticipate a pretty good showing from JV and I expect their bats to come out to play, too. Let’s hope the ones I’m using sound off the most and lead this lineup to a big win.

Good luck and enjoy the game!

PLAY THIS LINEUP


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Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros MLB Pick – October 18th

Yesterday was about as close as you are ever going to get to getting free money in the MLB playoffs. We took the over eight and a half runs in the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox game, and there was very little doubt in my mind we would have a slugfest. Rick Porcello was getting bounced back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen for Boston, and he was pitching on three days rest and a broken routine. And the Astros Charlie Morton hadn’t pitched a full start in over a month with shoulder tightness, and I thought that throwing him right into a heated must-win game four was a lot to ask.

Throw in the fact that these were two of the best lineups in the game this season and each of the first three games of the series over sailed over the run total, and I was pretty confident in my bet. And these teams didn’t even make us sweat it as the runs came early and often. We had this line covered by the fifth inning and when it was all said and done runs were scored in every inning but the ninth. In total fourteen runs were put on the board.

The win couldn’t have been bigger for Boston as they now have taken complete control of the series and have won three straight games, the last two of those coming on the road in Houston. The Astros will have their backs against the wall tonight in game five at home as it is win or go home or stay home in this instance for Houston. The Red Sox need to just win one of the last three games of the series, the final two of which will be in Boston, to advance to the World Series.

Starting for the Astros today is Justin Verlander (16-9 2.52 ERA), and for the Red Sox, it is David Price (16-7 3.58 ERA). The Astros are major -182 home favorites. The game total over-under is set at eight runs. First pitch is scheduled for 5:09 PM PST from Minute Maid Park in Houston.

With no room for error, the Houston Astros will turn to their best arm in game five, Justin Verlander. Verlander was the hero last season in the playoffs for Houston as they won the World Series title and the Astros will call on him tonight to keep their dreams of repeating alive.  Verlander has been solid but not spectacular in the postseason this year as he is 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA in two starts and has been the recipient of a lot of run support.

He started game one of this series and picked up the win, throwing six innings of two-run ball while allowing just two hits. His issue in that game was his command as he uncharacteristically walked four batters in the game. He was pulled after throwing just 90 pitches. We know Verlander is capable of throwing a lot more pitches than that and in his game, I expect the Astros to ride him until his arm falls off as there is no tomorrow if they don’t win.

I was shocked that Boston decided to use David Price in this series at all. After how poorly he has pitched historically in the playoffs, I thought that Boston would find a way to send Price to the bullpen and utilize other arms. He showed in the ALDS that he has yet to exercise his playoff demons as he ran his career playoff record to 0-9 after getting pounded by New York for three runs in just an inning and a third of work.

Then Boston decided to give him another shot, in this series against Houston, in game two, and once again he got pummeled. Now in that one, the Red Sox managed to win a slugfest but Price in the playoffs is a huge gamble. In game two Price threw four and two-thirds of an inning and allowed four runs but it could have been even worse as he left the game with multiple runners on base.

What is Boston thinking in this game? Maybe they would rather clinch the AL pennant at home in Boston and feel that they will be able to get the job done in two chances in games six and seven? I know that Chris Sale is sick and resting him up for the deciding games at home makes sense, but to throw Price out their basically throws up the white flag of surrender in this one. Maybe they realized that a pissed off and fired up Justin Verlander at home is going to be impossible to beat anyway and that is why they are feeding Price to the wolves.

Whatever the case may be, I think the Astros dominate this game. They haven’t had trouble scoring runs most of the series, and with Price on the mound, I expect them to hit him hard. And Verlander? I’m guessing we will still see him in the game in the seventh inning or later as the guy is almost always good when his team needs him to be. This all adds up to me thinking this game is going to be a blowout.

Blowouts rarely happen in the postseason as runs are hard to come by, but in this series that hasn’t really been the case as all four games have gone over the game total and every game has been decided by multiple runs. So, I will take a shot on a big payout and back the Astros laying a run and a half on the run line in this one, in game that they just can’t lose. Give me the Houston Astros on the run line tonight at home in game five at +105!

The Bet: Houston Astros -1.5 runs at +105

PLACE YOUR BET!


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Hamilton Academical v Rangers Odds and Predictions – Scottish Premiership October 21

Despite having only won one of their last six matches, the Accies are only three places below Rangers in the Scottish Premiership table going into Sunday’s clash at New Douglas Park and the Gers are just five points off the pace.

A couple of victories can move you quickly up the standings but the only wins that Martin Canning’s side have picked up this season have come against teams below them in the table and Steven Gerrard’s team have bounced back well from their defeat at Livingstone last month to beat Rapid Vienna in the Europa League and top-of-the-table Hearts at Ibrox.

Hamilton Form

Not one of Hamilton’s last 18 matches in the Scottish Premiership has finished all-square and that should be enough to frighten most punters off a backing the draw (a best 43/10 with Unibet). Of those 18 matches, the Accies have won just three.
Mickel Miller, signed this year from non-league football in England, has been their most productive striker this season but missed both of their last two matches before the international break, defeats against Dundee and at Hibernian in which they failed to find the net. Goalkeeper Gary Woods is having a particularly tough time of it at the moment and could be in for a busy afternoon against Rangers who, with their big following, are probably not the ideal opposition against which to try and end a barren spell.

Rangers Form

Rangers form away form Ibrox continues to perplex Steven Gerrard as only two of their 11 wins in all competitions under the rookie manager have come on the road – they are one of only two teams in the Scottish Premiership yet to register an away win.
However, they do appear to have goals in them throughout the side (they were the second-highest scorers in the league after Hibernian before this weekend), though will be missing Kyle Lafferty after Northern Ireland invoked a rule which says he can’t play for his club within five days of pulling out of an international squad through injury.

Hamilton v Rangers Head To Head

Hamilton have only won one and drawn one of their last 15 meetings with Rangers. They’ve conceded 13 times in the last four with Rangers winning all eight of their preview visits to South Lanarkshire by an aggregate of 19-7.

Hamilton v Rangers Current Best Odds

Hamilton 10/1, Draw 43/10, Rangers 4/11 (Odds Correct at 4.20pm October 18)

Hamilton v Rangers Predictions

Rangers are in much better form than their hosts and their style of football under Gerrard should be suited to the artificial surface at New Douglas Park. They look a good bet to improve their so-far modest record on the road this season with a comfortable victory and last season’s three meetings between the sides produced an average of five goals. Over 4.5 Total Goals is 9/2 this weekend with BetVictor. Alfredo Morelos is Evens to be an Anytime Goalscorer and Rangers can be backed at 13/5 on the Handicap minus two goals.


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Week 7 Thursday Night Football FanDuel Picks – October 18th

The NFL returns for week seven on Thursday Night Football, where the Arizona Cardinals host the Denver Broncos. I’d argue that playoff baseball and the NBA have trumped pro football, but it’s still pretty nice to have it back – especially for NFL DFS purposes. If you’re looking to bet on the Cardinals vs. Broncos game, be sure to check out our NFL picks section of the site.

If you plan on playing daily fantasy football in reference to tonight’s game, whether it be a one-game showdown contest, a Thu-Mon slate or you just want some extra insight on season long options in this game, you’ve come to the right place.

For the most part, this is potentially the worst TNF game of the year thus far. Case Keenum and the Broncos have dropped four in a row and are in danger of making it five. Arizona has actually been worse, so correctly gauging fantasy value won’t be easy. I do tend to favor the Cards at home on a short week, while we definitely need to keep in mind that Denver’s defense isn’t quite what it used to be.

With that, let’s check out some of my favorite NFL DFS picks for the one-game showdown contest at FanDuel:

MVP (1.5x points): David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals ($15k)

This game is not loaded with star fantasy football talent, so you gotta get the guy who has more upside than anyone else. That’s DJ, who has been held back by his team and system all year, yet somehow has 11+ fantasy points in five of six games. He’s scored six total touchdowns along the way and you know that big yardage game is just around the corner.

Why can’t it come in a prime time setting at home against a defense that just got gashed by Todd Gurley to the tune of 200+ rushing yards? I think it will. There’s nobody else I’d rather have at my MVP spot tonight.

FLEX: Royce Freeman, RB, Denver Broncos ($10.5k)

Freeman has the talent to be argued into the MVP slot and Arizona has not been good at stopping running backs this year. He’s in a timeshare, however, so his upside is curbed. Still, the matchup is amazing and he’s a threat to bust a long run and/or score. He’s a good price so I’ll slide him in after DJ.

FLEX: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals ($10k)

I know Larry Legend hasn’t been himself this year, but he’s slowly getting healthier and will eventually start putting up numbers again. The targets are still decent (8 last week) and he will always have the size and route-running smarts to be a scoring threat. Maybe he’s slowing down, but I’ll take a shot at him at this price. That first 2018 touchdown is rounding the corner after all.

Christian Kirk is a great pivot if you can afford him. I just think he might be chalky given the year Fitz has endured.

FLEX: Ricky Seals-Jones, TE, Arizona Cardinals ($9k)

I’m not a huge fan of RSJ, but he’s an athletic tight end with a solid role. He hauled in five catches for 69 yards last week and he’s seen at least five targets in four different games this year.

When you have rookies like Josh Rosen on the field, tight ends are going to carry some upside. Five catches and a score would make him well worth a roster spot tonight.

FLEX: Case Keenum, QB, Denver Broncos ($15k)

I also really like Emmanuel Sanders here, but despite his turnover issues, Keenum has actually been a pretty good NFL DFS asset in 2018.

Keenum popped off for 22 fantasy points in week one and has chipped in two more 20+ fantasy points outings over the last two weeks. Arizona doesn’t offer the best matchup, but you need upside and Keenum gives you that when it comes to this slate.

Summary

I think this is a David Johnson game, but the Broncos should be able to move the ball and put up some points. I don’t feel great about fading Christian Kirk, Phillip Lindsay, Emmanuel Sanders or Demaryius Thomas, but you need to take your stands.

Hopefully my Thursday Night Football DFS picks help you in your lineup building process tonight. Either way, good luck and enjoy the game!

PLAY THIS LINEUP


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MrFixitsTips.co.uk started in 2010 and has grown to become a really huge and active betting community on the web. Provide daily tips and previews from English, Scottish and international football, racing tips, NBA basketball tips and NFL American football tips. With more than 20 years of experience writing tips for the Daily Record, Scotland’s biggest newspaper, Mr Fixit brings you tips and betting news every day.

The Sports Geek
Thesportsgeek.com was founded in 2008 and provide betting picks and different kinds of betting strategies. With a team of five expert tipsters they offer picks from NBA, NFL, College Basketball, NHL and Golf.

We Love Betting
Welovebetting.co.uk is a site providing tips and insights from many football markets, such as Premier League, English football, Scottish football, International football but also other sports such as Golf, Horse racing and NFL. We Love Betting is updated daily with tips and betting previews.

FootyAccumulators
Footyaccumulators.com began in 2010 and provide betting news, match previews and recommended bets. FootyAccumulators write betting previews on over nine football leagues as well as internationals. They do not just focus on the Premier League, they also provide betting tips and previews for clubs in the Championship, League One and League Two.

Sports Betting Tips
Sportsbettingtips.org is a website with the ultimate aim to cover as many sports as possible. Each day they will provide at least one post with sports betting tips but they aim to provide at least 3 separate betting tips every day. All betting tips are free, and always will be so they say. Sports Betting Tips also provide other topics such as sports trivia, betting challenges and they have a “sports betting for dummies” section to help people new to sports betting.

Oddschanger
Oddschanger.com started in 2012 and provide betting tips and previews on over 10 different sports. They don’t just focus on the most popular Football and Horse Racing events, they provide tips from a wide variety of sports including; Golf, Tennis, Cricket, NFL, Boxing, MMA, Darts, Snooker, Rugby League and Rugby Union. Oddschanger´s daily bets (including trebles, long shots and challenge bets) brings you the best value for every sport, every day.

Betcraft
Betcraft.co is run by Gavin, a professional tipster who has a deep understanding of the mathematical and statistical side to betting which has allowed him to identify value. He explains why Martingale system is a long term loser and provide betting tips and preview purely based on value.

Betting Directory
Established in 2004 Betting-directory.com has grown in to a team of 10 expert writers, covering all major sport events. And with weekly celebrity guest columnists Betting Directory provide daily free betting tips and previews.

Accutipster
Accutipster.com is an informative betting website with writers that cover a variety of sports looking to find the best value possible in markets spread across Europe, and in terms of International football or NFL – the world. On a day-to-day basis, Accutipster pick out a selection of bets – with the aim of winning more than they lose.

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