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Saturday, May 26, 2018

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Latest betting tips

Alan Thomson’s Tips: Complete the job in Silver Bowl

COMPLETION (2.50) is a typical William Haggas improver and the three-year-old can lift the Amix Silver Bowl at Haydock.

This is one of the early-season’s most competitive mile handicaps and Completion beat a bang in-form rival, Poet’s Prince, in a tight finish at Redcar on fast ground. Mark Johnston’s runner-up won next time at Chelmsford City and ran a stormer at York when chasing home stablemate Communique, conceding 6lb.

Completion hasn’t been unduly clobbered by the handicapper and only a lot of rain would dampen enthusiasm. Crack On Crack On was the other one at the shortlist.

In the opener, Jim Goldie has fair ew prospects with EUCHEN GLEN (2.15). He ruined his chance by pulling too hard at Chester last time, finishing seventh, two places behind Byron Flyer. Euchen Glen has a 3lb pull and beat that horse on similar terms in the Shergar Cup Stayers at Ascot last summer.

At Goodwood, the Haggas-trained Society Power bids for a five-timer in the Class 2 handicap over seven furlongs and is a must for any short-list, despite a 6lb rise for his latest success at Ascot.

Fourth horse Fennaan has a chance of overturning that form on today’s revised terms but ZAP (2.30) could be the value bet in another open affair. Richard Fahey’s representative was just denied by stablemate Clubbable at York’s Dante fixture and that appears strong form.

The 1m 6f handicap features some familiar names and KOEMAN (4.20) should go well at an each-way price.

Mick Channon’s stayer scored on the Polytrack at Lingfield before chasing home Count Calabash at Ascot. The drying ground is in his favour and he finished third over course and distance last August.

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This post is originally from: mrfixitstips.co.uk

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Champions League Final: No chicken in Kiev but goals on menu

LIVERPOOL’S brand of football deserves to be rewarded with the Champions League trophy but Real Madrid will do everything possible to hold on to their prize.

The Final is one of the most anticipated of recent years and a goalfest is expected with Real going for three in a row.

That’s why over 2.5 goals pays just 1-2 at Ladbrokes while both to score is 4-9 at Ladbrokes. Normally this would pay about evens.

I also like at the same price with McBookie a goal to be scored in both halves.

Jurgen Klopp’s men have played only one way on the road to Kiev – and that’s been on the front foot – and it’s another night for bravehearts and if anyone doesn’t know the words Andy Robertson can teach them.

With top trio Mo Salah, Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mane on fire all season almost two thirds of their games have gone over 2.5 and incredibly 84 per cent of Real Madrid’s away games have produced three or more goals.

Twelve out of 14 of Liverpool’s Champions League games have gone over as have 11 out of 12 for Real.

If there’s an early goal this could be one of the highest-scoring finals in recent memory. Over 3.5 goals has a chance at 5-4 with William Hill and even over 4.5 at 3-1 with Unibet will be in some people’s thoughts.

But what about a winner? Liverpool opened huge underdogs at around 7-2 to win in 90 minutes and this has come into a best 9-4 at Unibet which is a more accurate reflection.

For me it’s a 50-50 game so the Reds look better value. On the outrights they are 23-17 and that takes in the chance of winning on penalties as they did in 2005.

To in in normal time Real have gone out to 13-10 at William Hill and on the outrights it’s 8-11 at McBookie.

Both sides are 14-1 with *** to win a shoot-out and 11-1 to do so after extra time.

Best bet could be Liverpool draw no bet at 7-5 with Betfair while the Reds not to lose pays 8-11 at 188BET.

For many this will be the Salah v Cristiano Ronaldo show and both will be determined to outdo one other.

Salah’s enjoyed an incedible season and is 19-4 at Unibet to score first but Ronaldo has been there and done it and is 16-5 with William Hill.

To score at any time Salah’s 23-18 at Unibet with Ronaldo 21-25 with Marathonbet. Firmino is 12-5 at Paddy Power with Mane 5-2 with Betfred.

Much has been made of Salah and Mane fasting for Ramadan but I’m sure Liverpool will have them ready for the biggest games of their careers.

While Liverpool have their three Amigos, Ronaldo must sometimes feel he has to do it alone with Gareth Bale out of favour for much of the season.

He may have a friend in Isco who has a decent strike rate from midfield with 15 goals and some in big games. To net at any time he is 5-2 at William Hill.

To score two plus Salah is 6-1 at Betfair while Ronaldo is half the odds at 3-1 with William Hill.

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This post is originally from: mrfixitstips.co.uk

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Mr Fixit’s Top Tips: Let’s hope final is Real deal

IT’S finally here and let’s hope Real Madrid v Liverpool lives up the billing.

I can’t see a 0-0 or 1-0 but how disappointing to do that when everyone is expecting goals.

I’m tipping Liverpool and goals and I’ve posted a separate preview and Scott will put up a BetBuilder.

There will be loads of tips and banter from the regulars including maccathered who sparked a good debate about what’s better – Premier League or La Liga.

Before the Champions League Final there is the Championship play-off final between Fulham and Aston Villa. I give my reasons for backing Fulham on another post but this will be close.

Well done to all the winners yesterday including HullShaker and Jordan who are in great form and kept us going during a quiet period.

I already put up a Sunday double with New York Red Bulls, who have a 100 per cent home record with 14 goals scored in four home wins, against Philadelphia. Add Ranheim, newly promoted to the Norwegian top flight and sitting third, not to lose at struggling Bodo Glimt who went up with them but haven’t adjusted well.

And I also posted a Super Single which was 5pts on a goal in both halves in Kiev at 1-2.

I may add other Saturday tips later or in the morning.

Remember to check out welovebetting for their latest tips and chat.

3pts Daily Double

  • NY Red Bulls (12am, Sun)
  • Ranheim +1 (5pm, Sun)
  • (19-10, ***)

5pts Super Single

May Super Singles Total:  -2.4pts

May Advised Accas Total: -18.4pts

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This post is originally from: mrfixitstips.co.uk

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English Football Tips: Fulham can edge out Villa

THE Championship play-off final is a nice appetiser to the Champions League showdown.

Fulham are hot favourites at 7-5 with Betfred to beat Aston Villa but as always it will be a tense affair at Wembley.

The world’s richest game is now said to be worth up to £200million so imagine making the mistake that cost your side defeat.

Fulham have been exceptional since December, losing just four out of 30 and beating Villa 2-0 at Craven Cottage in that run.

However, Steve Bruce’s underdogs are difficult to break down and in John Terry have the experience this stage needs.

Villa are 5-2 at Sky Bet to win in 90 minutes while a draw pays 9-4 at Black Type.

It’s not an easy call but I’m siding with Fulham and with two thirds of their goals coming after half-time when rivals tire chasing the ball it could pay to back an interval stalemate at evens with McBookie.

Aleksandr Mitrovic is first-scorer favourite at 43-10 with Unibet but I prefer to be on young Ryan Sessegnon who hit 16 in the regular season. He is 6-1 at ***.

Only three of the last 17 finals have seen both score and 12 out of 19 have been under 2.5 goals.

All four semi-final legs went under 2.5 and another here is likely at 8-13 with Betfair.

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  • Fulham
  • Sessegnon to score first
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  • Under 2.5 goals
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This post is originally from: mrfixitstips.co.uk

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FanDuel MLB DFS Picks – May 25th

Last night was one of the worst daily fantasy baseball teams I’ve ever assembled. A massive portion of that is thanks to Rick Porcello, who was truly the only viable arm on a three-game main slate.

He was 50% owned, so much of the MLB DFS world agreed with me. In a pitcher’s park against a punchless Rays lineup, he fully cratered and finished with (gulp) five fantasy points.

Five.

It was brutal to see it all unfold, especially since I could have rolled with virtually any other arm last night and had better luck. Sometimes chalk is chalk for a reason and sometimes it murders your soul.

Porcello hurt me last night, but my bats didn’t really help ease the pain.

It was a forgettable slate, but that can be the rub of such a tiny slate to begin with. It’s onward and upward as we approach a big 14-game main slate to close out the regular work week.

SP: Ross Stripling – Los Angeles Dodgers ($6.7k)

There are a ton of elite pitching options available on this slate. Max Scherzer is the best overall play in a pitcher’s park against the Miami Marlins. He’s the most expensive arm, though, so if you want to load up on bats, it may make sense to pivot to a cheaper top shelf arm or just drop down with a value play.

Up top, Noah Syndergaard ($10.6k) is probably your next best bet, while James Paxton ($9.7k) screams value at home against a volatile Twins lineup. Corey Kluber ($11k) and Luis Severino ($10.3k) are also in play, but they have tough matchups.

I don’t love any of the other intermediate options, so my next two guys I’ll be considering are Jon Gray ($7k) against the Reds and Ross Stripling ($6.7k) versus the Padres.

Gray is a very talented pitcher with what looks to be a good matchup, but Coors Field is still Coors Field. This is an amazing GPP play, but I can understand your hesitance.

I like that play and will probably try it once tonight, but my preferred arm on this slate has to be Stripling.

A talented pitcher that simply hasn’t been used much as a starter, Stripling is finally stretched out this year and is fresh off a dominant outing (9 Ks, 1 ER) against a good Washington Nationals offense. He worked the Cincinnati Reds (7 Ks) the game prior and shutout the San Diego Padres the game before that.

Stripling is in a great spot tonight at home against the Padres. San Diego is still without two of their best power bats and sports a gross 27% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Anyone can face plant like Porcello did last night, but Stripling offers elite value on a huge slate.

The matchup is sublime and Stripling should garner low ownership with so many studs on the table. He’s a fine pick to help us load up on mashers tonight in GPPs at FanDuel.

I won’t talk you out of Mad Max and the other elite options tonight, but I want some elite bats and this value is too good to pass up.

C/1B: Justin Smoak – Toronto Blue Jays ($3.6k)

Smoak loses efficiency when he bats from the left side, but he donged 31 times in that spot in 2017 and obviously swings a powerful bat. That’s the play here, as his nasty .249 ISO could come in useful in a hitter’s park against a high contact pitcher like Zach Eflin.

Eflin has looked solid so far in 2018, but this is not an easy matchup for him tonight. His suspect .266 ISO against lefties over the past two years also makes him a target.

You can consider diving down for Curtis Granderson (.230 ISO) at the OF spot, too, while a full Jays stack is not the craziest thing tonight.

2B: Whit Merrifield – Kansas City Royals ($3.5k)

Merrifield sees a great park upgrade tonight in Texas and he’ll also be facing a contact arm in Mike Minor. Minor gets lit up be right-handed hitting (.209 ISO, 44% fly ball rate), while Whit produces a pretty sweet ISO himself (.237) versus southpaws.

I also like Asdrubal Cabrera and Yangervis Solarte in the same price range, but Merrifield feels like the best play by the numbers tonight.

3B: Hunter Dozier – Kansas City Royals ($2k)

I’ll try Dozier for the same reasons I’m using Merrifield. He’s in a great park for power, Minor gives up a ton of hard contact and he has shown the ability to hit lefties. He brings good power to the table and has yet to send one deep, too. Tonight could be the night and at this price he’s an amazing bargain buy.

SS: Jean Segura – Seattle Mariners ($2.6k)

This is a pure price play, as Segura is a quality SS who connects on 83% of his at bat. He does hit a ton of ground balls, but he also doesn’t whiff much and he’s decent enough to use against fellow righties. The matchup isn’t amazing, but he’s at home and is clearly dirt cheap.

I’m not demanding a dong here. If Segura can produce two hits, swipe a bag and manage to score, he’d return elite value with 15 fantasy points. I don’t think that’s too much to ask.

OF: Rhys Hoskins – Philadelphia Phillies ($3.6k)

Hoskins is just too cheap here. Citizens Bank Park is a terrific place for offense and Sam Gaviglio is an equal opportunity sad sack. He gives up a good amount of contact and coughs up a +.216 ISO to both sides of the plate.

I know the power numbers haven’t been there for Hoskins, but he’s at home against a very beatable pitcher and he’s been putting the ball in the air a ton this year. Eventually that’s going to work out for him. This matchup and this price are as good of a spot as any to bet on him paying off.

OF: Giancarlo Stanton – New York Yankees ($5.1k)

Stanton can struggle at home at times, but he’s still donged there six times in 2018. He’s also facing a lefty tonight, so he has to be on your radar thanks to his gaudy .461 ISO against southpaws.

It’s been even nastier (.531) this year, while Andrew Heaney (.366 wOBA, .302 ISO, 40% fly ball rate and 43% hard hit rate) historically has issues with right-handed power. You can also look at Aaron Judge and/or Gary Sanchez here, but if I need to pick one it’s Stanton by a mile.

OF: Bryce Harper – Washington Nationals ($5.3k)

I love Aaron Judge and Charlie Blackmon here tonight as well, so if you want to pay up over my utility guy, perhaps dropping to them is in the cards for you.

Harper is in a pitcher’s park and is not cheap, so I think he could come in at decreased ownership. I always love a masher who can get me two homers at 5-10% ownership and it’s possible Harper does that tonight.

Jose Urena is not an elite pitcher and he has most of his issues against left-handed hitting (.177 ISO, 38% fly ball rate, 36% hard hit rate). Harper could easily tag him tonight.

Util: Kurt Suzuki – Atlanta Braves ($2.6k)

I don’t usually go out of my way to pick on Eduardo Rodriguez, but if I do I’m using righty power. Rodriguez can make bats miss, but Fenway Park is a brutal place to throw in and Suzuki brings a nasty .357 ISO to the table versus southpaws.

Fenway gives way to righty power, so Suzuki could be an overlooked masher in this spot tonight.

Again, if you don’t love him, drop down from Harper and consider someone like Cody Bellinger ($3.1k) or Joey Gallo ($3.1k). They both look like elite value mashers on this slate and people hate using left-handed bats versus left-handed pitching.

Overall, I see the infatuation with Mad Max and the other stud arms, but I want bats tonight. Stripling is also in an awesome spot, so hopefully he can deliver a big outing and make this all come together nicely.

Either way, hopefully some of these MLB DFS picks help you out and you can find a way to profit tonight. Good luck!

PLAY THIS LINEUP


This post is originally from: www.thesportsgeek.com

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Arizona Diamondbacks at Oakland Athletics MLB Pick – May 25th

Felix Hernandez certainly did not look anything like a king last night in the first inning against the Oakland Athletics. Hernandez got rocked for four runs in the first inning. After that disastrous first inning, Hernandez was actually very good as he pitched five more innings and gave up just one hit and no runs. But the damage had already been done, and the Mariners could never recover.

This one feels like we got really unlucky. Outside of that one inning, Hernandez pitched much as I expected him to and Oakland starter Josh Lucas got very lucky not to give up even more runs. Kudos to the A’s to put Lucas on a short leash in his first ever big-league start. Lucas loaded the bases in the first inning only to get bailed out by Nelson Cruz who hit into a rally-killing double play. Lucas got right back into trouble again in the second inning and gave up another run and was once again bailed out by a fortuitous double play ball.

The A’s pulled him after two innings of work, and it won them the game, as it was clear he didn’t have anything for this Mariners lineup. The A’s bullpen came in and managed to pitch seven innings of one-run ball, and Oakland held on for the one-run victory. It would have been nice to cash another underdog ticket, but what can you do, we came up just a little bit short. For today’s pick, we will look for another money line underdog winner as the Arizona Diamondbacks play the Oakland Athletics.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are in Oakland Friday for game one of a three-game weekend series with the Athletics. The DBacks are just looking to stop the bleeding right now. After running out to the best record in the major leagues in April, the DBacks have now lost thirteen of their last fourteen games and are seeing their once-promising season fall apart. The A’s are managing to hang right around the .500 mark and have won six of their last eight games.

Starting tonight for the DBacks is Patrick Corbin (4-1 2.60 ERA) and for the A’s it is Sean Manaea (5-4 2.71 ERA). The A’s are -130 home favorites. The game total over-under is set at seven runs. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35 PM PST from Oakland Alameda Coliseum.

What is going on in Arizona? This team looked like they might be the best team in the National League when they finished up April with a 20-8 record. But since then, the DBacks have completely imploded. The struggles have mostly been at the plate for Arizona. This team currently sits at dead last in all of baseball in on-base percentage and batting average, and they are 29th in runs scored and 28th in slugging.

A big reason why this offense isn’t scoring right now is the season’s long slump of Paul Goldschmidt. Goldschmidt, a perennial MVP candidate, and lifetime .300 hitter, is batting just .200 on the season. This is a guy that can be counted on for thirty homers and a hundred RBI while hitting .300 every year. And right now, he is a sinkhole in the middle of this Arizona lineup.

Goldschmidt is used to competing to lead the league in home runs and this year he isn’t even leading his team. The good news for Arizona is that this guy is just way too talented to hit like this all year long. He has proven over the course of several years that he is going to turn it around and be productive, but that turn around can’t come soon enough for this reeling DBacks team.

Starting tonight for the DBacks is Patrick Corbin. Corbin is enjoying a career year. He is 4-1 with a 2.60 ERA. He too has been affected by this recent downturn for Arizona as the DBacks won five of his first six starts and have now lost his last four, despite him pitching very well. Corbin’s eighty-one strikeouts are second most in the National League, and he has given up three earned runs, or fewer in nine of his ten starts this year. I look for Corbin to continue his dominance tonight in Oakland.

Starting tonight for Oakland is Sean Manaea. Manaea has went from unknown youngster, to the talk of baseball, to back to relatively unknown in just two months. Manaea has been a guy that I have been backing now for a couple of years, very under the radar. He was like my secret weapon. A guy that could win you games, that was being priced very reasonably.

Then he threw a no-hitter against the Boston Red Sox, and my little secret was gone. Manaea wasn’t just a one-hit wonder this year either. He finished up the month of April 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA. May has not treated Manaea nearly as well though, as he is 1-2 and the A’s have lost two out of his four starts in the month. He has given up four runs in each of his last four starts after not giving up any more than two runs through his first six starts. Manaea is still very good, but now that he is a household name and teams are keying in on him, he is struggling.

This is another spot where given the opportunity to back a pitcher like Patrick Corbin as an underdog is just too much value to pass up on. I get it, the DBacks couldn’t hit water if they fell out of a boat right now, but Corbin is fifth in the National League in WAR and second in strikeouts. He can win you games with very little run support. I would consider backing Corbin as a dog against just about any team, he just has too much potential.

I love Sean Manaea, but right now his confidence is a bit shaky, and it’s a good time to pounce on him. It feels like these next couple of starts for Manaea are just an audition for all the playoff teams that need a new starter. He is likely to be dealt before the deadline this year to a more competitive team, as this is a page right out of the Billy Beane handbook. It is curious to see how he handles all that extra pressure.

The DBacks are going to win a game at some point, why not tonight in Oakland? I am going to back Patrick Corbin and hope that Arizona finds a way to put a couple of runs on the board tonight. Give me the Arizona Diamondbacks as small road underdogs tonight in Oakland at +110!

The Bet: Arizona Diamondbacks +110

PLACE YOUR BET


This post is originally from: www.thesportsgeek.com

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DraftKings MLB DFS Picks – May 25th

Plain and simlple, last night’s DraftKings MLB Picks were an outright disaster. We used Rick Porcello o quiet a mediocre Tampa Bay offense, however Porcello went just 3.2 innings while yielding four earned runs and stuck out just a pair. Things didn’t get much better with Mike Clevinger as the Astros got to the Indians’ right-hander for five earned runs on seven hits across just 5.1 innings. Clevinger struck out five in the process. Our bats did absolutely nothing to help our cause as the Brewers were shutout by Mets’ left-hander Steven Matz while the Rangers did very little to help our cause with Joey Gallo and Isiah Kiner-Falefa both doubling to give us our lone production from that group. That’s two nights in a row our picks have not been very good at all. MLB DFS has a lot of variance involved, and we will go through some cold stretches throughout the season. However, I am endlessly committed to research so we will look to turn things around on tonight’s large 14-game main slate!

Weather Concern:

STL @ PIT

P – Max Scherzer (WAS) – $14,000 vs. MIA

The price is massive, but Scherzer has one of, if not the best matchup you could ask for tonight as he takes the mound against the light-hitting Marlins in Miami. Scherzer is on some kind of roll this season as he’s already reached 100 strikeouts for the year and owns a massive 40.9% strikeout clip through 10 starts. He’s earned the win in seven of those 10 starts while he brings a sparkling 1.78 ERA and a 1.80 FIP into action tonight. The Marlins rank 29th with a .632 team OPS against right-handers while they also have a 26.6% strikeout rate against them as well. Combine those numbers with the pitcher-friendly confines at Marlins Park and you have yourself a fantastic matchup for arguably the world’s best pitcher tonight.

P – Ross Stripling (LAD) – $7,200 vs. SD

There is a wealth of top-tier arms on this slate, but I believe Stripling can give us top-tier production at a large discount considering his matchup and how well he’s pitched this season. This will be stripling’s fifth start of the season while he brings a tidy 2.08 ERA and a 2.33 FIP into action across those four starts and 11 relief appearances on the year. Stripling also sports a fantastic 27.8% strikeout rate and has punched out 16 batters over his last 11.1 innings of work. Stripling gets an extremely favorable home matchup against the lowly Padres who rank 28th with a team .646 OPS against right-handers while they own a huge 29.4% strikeout rate against righties as well. We are targeting two of the worst teams against right-handed pitching with our pitchers tonight.

C – Gary Sanchez (NYY) – $4,600 vs. LAA

Nothing against Angels’ lefty Andrew Heaney who has had a good year this season, but I am going to use some Yankees’ right-handed bats who have obliterated left-handed pitching this season. With the Yankees projected to score 5.6 runs and the wind blowing out to left field at 9-10 mph, I believe we have a nice opportunity here despite Heaney’s solid results to date. Sanchez is once again destroying left-handed pitching this season as evidenced by his massive .361 ISO and 1.078 OPS on the season against them, a year after posting a .266 ISO and .886 OPS against southpaws. He should be in for some production tonight.

1B – Tyler Austin (NYY) – $3,400 vs. LAA

As deep as the first base position is, I don’t mind paying down for the lefty-mashing Austin as part of a Yankees stack tonight. Austin enters play sporting a huge .341 ISO and .996 OPS on the season against southpaw pitching. Austin went 5 for 13 (.385) with two homers against lefties last season in the big leagues, so we have a real good idea that he boasts a ton of power against southpaws. We should also get him at solid ownership given the big slate and deep first base position.

2B – Rougned Odor (TEX) – $3,100 vs. KC

Our Rangers stack didn’t work out for us last night, but they are in a real nice matchup against southpaw Erik Skoglund at the hitter-friendly confines of Globe Life Park in Arlington tonight. This is a lefty on lefty matchup here, and Odor is off to a real slow start at the dish. However, as part of a four-man stack and given the cost-savings we need in this lineup, I will roll the dice with Odor at low ownership tonight. He hit a three-run homer the other night, his first of the season, so perhaps we will see more power from him moving forward. Also is the fact that Skoglund has surrendered a homer and double to lefties in just over six innings this season.

3B – Isiah Kiner-Falefa (TEX) – $3,500 vs. KC

We used Kiner-Falefa to no avail last night, but we are going to roll with the cost-effective infielder again tonight in a very favorable matchup. Skoglund has been brutal against right-handed bats this season as evidenced by his .833 OPS and .357 wOBA against on the season. He is also yielding 46.3% hard contact to righties as well. Kiner-Falefa owns a real solid .176 ISO and .778 OPS on the season against lefties while he is projected to hit in the valuable three-hole tonight which gives him nice cross-category upside as a result.

SS – Jurickson Profar (TEX) – $3,700 vs. KC

It was interesting to see Profar get the night off last night against the lefty Danny Duffy considering how poor Duffy has been against righties and the fact the switch-hitting Profar has mashed lefties this season. Profar enters tonight’s contest sporting a big-time .297 ISO and 1.004 OPS on the year against southpaws and is 4 for his last 11 with two doubles and a homer in that span. Profar should certainly be back in the starting lineup tonight and has the upside to produce in a big way against a struggling pitcher.

OF – Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) – $5,000 vs. LAA

Our three-man Yankees stack is complete here with Stanton who has just obliterated southpaw pitching this season. Stanton has more homers against lefties (7) than he does righties (4) despite almost 100 more at-bats against righties. Stanton’s eye-popping numbers against lefties this season include a .408 average, .531 ISO, 1.383 OPS, .564 wOBA and a 63.2% hard-hit rate. Combine those with the wind blowing out to left and a multi-homer night isn’t far-fetched for the slugging outfielder tonight.

OF – Ryan Rua (TEX) – $2,700 vs. KC

As mentioned, we need some value in this lineup and Rua provides that value as part of a four-man Rangers stack tonight. Rua plays almost strictly against left-handed pitching, and he owns a powerful .194 ISO against them on the season. His career OPS is almost 200 points higher against lefties than it is righties, and he could provide huge value to this lineup if he can play long ball against the struggling Skoglund at what should be tiny ownership this evening.

OF – Guillermo Heredia (SEA) – $2,800 vs. MIN

In terms of one-off players in this price range Heredia stands exceedingly taller than his peers. First, he is projected to hit in the two-hole for the Mariners tonight, an extremely valuable spot. Second, he is sporting some big-time reverse splits and some big numbers against right-handed pitching this season as he takes on Twins’ righty Fernando Romero tonight. Heredia enters play tonight sporting an extremely powerful .242 ISO and 1.076 OPS on the season against righties and is 4 for his last 10 with two doubles. He had excellent value upside tonight.


This post is originally from: www.thesportsgeek.com

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New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers MLB Pick – May 25th

We picked up the easy win yesterday when we backed the Houston Astros against the Cleveland Indians. I hated betting against a starter as good as Mike Clevinger at home, but with Charlie Morton on the mound for Houston, I had no choice. Morton is enjoying a career renaissance in Houston, and he has been basically unhittable this season.

He was solid again last night as he pitched six strong innings and allowed just two earned runs on five hits. The Astros bats provided plenty of run support, and Morton moves his record to 7-0 on the season with the 8-2 Houston victory. I said in my pick yesterday that I don’t think Charlie Morton is going to be able to keep up this torrid pace he is on all season long. But, until he cools down a little bit, you would be crazy not to jump on the bandwagon.

Especially in a situation like last night where we only had to lay a very reasonable price to get to back him. So much of baseball is teams and pitchers going on hot and cold streaks, and right now there aren’t many hotter than Charlie Morton. For today’s pick, I will look at another scenario where we get the opportunity to back an elite arm at a reasonable number.

The New York Mets are in Milwaukee Friday night for game two of a three-game series with the Brewers. The Mets are starting to heat back up after starting the month out slow. New York has now won six of their last nine games. The Mets took game one of the series last night 5-0. They got a great start from Steven Matz, who pitched six shutout innings. The offense was supplied by two RBI games from both Asdrubal Cabrera and Wilmer Flores, and the Mets took a one game to none series lead.

The Brewers saw their three-game winning streak snapped last night in game one and have been red-hot in May as they have rolled up a 14-7 record in the month. Starting tonight for the Brewers is Junior Guerra (3-3 2.98 ERA), and for the Mets, it is the God of Thunder, Thor, Noah Syndergaard (4-1 2.91 ERA). The Mets are -117 road favorites. The game total over-under is set at eight runs. First pitch is scheduled for 5:10 PM PST from Miller Park in Milwaukee.

The New York Mets have been a team filled with drama this year. Their starting rotation started out the season looking like one of the best in the National League, but that has quickly fallen apart. Matt Harvey plays for another team now and adding veteran Jason Vargas to the mix has been a disaster. But there has been some silver lining for this Mets team. First and foremost, they are still winning games.

The Mets are four games above.500 and are very much in the thick of the playoff race in the National League. Entering play today the Mets are just a half of a game back for the second wild card in the NL. How have they managed to stay competitive this year? The pitching of Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. Combined the two young aces are 8-1 on the season, and both are enjoying great personal success.

Tonight’s starter Noah Syndergaard has always been a guy that strikes fear into opposing batters. He is back healthy this season and is really cementing himself as an elite pitcher. His sixty-eight strikeouts on the year are fifth most in the National League, trailing only guys like Scherzer, deGrom, Corbin, and Strasburg. That is some great company. The Mets are 7-3 in Thor’s ten starts this season, and he is a big reason why this team has managed to stay afloat through all their early season adversity.

Syndergaard has been especially good against this Milwaukee team in his short career. Earlier this season against the Brewers, Thor pitched five and a third innings, allowing just two hits and no earned runs while striking out eleven. In his career against Milwaukee, Syndergaard is 2-0 with an ERA of 0.49 in three starts. It wouldn’t at all be a stretch to say he owns the Brewers.

Starting for Milwaukee tonight is Junior Guerra. Guerra had a really strong start to the season as he was 2-1 with a 0.82 ERA through April. Things have gotten more difficult for him in May as the Brewers have lost three out of his four starts and he has seen his ERA rise two full runs to 2.98. The big issue that has plagued Guerra all season long has been his inability to get deep into games. His longest outing on the season is just six innings, and he has only gone six innings in two of his eight starts.

The Brewers are playing very well at the moment. And I really don’t like betting against hot teams. When you are winning games at a high rate like this Brewers team is right now, the ball just seems to bounce your way more often than it should. But I can’t imagine passing up on being able to back Noah Syndergaard at close to even money. This kid is the elite of the elite, and he can win the game all by himself.

So, I will back the Mets today and hope that Thor continues his dominance of the Brewers. This Brewers team got completely shut down yesterday by Steven Matz, and Syndergaard is on a whole other level. I expect big things from him tonight, and it wouldn’t shock me to see him go seven innings and rack up double-digit punchout. Give me the New York Mets as small road favorites at -117 tonight!

The Bet: Mets -117

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This post is originally from: www.thesportsgeek.com

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FanDuel NBA DFS Playoff Picks – May 25th

Friday night offers another fun two-day daily fantasy basketball contest at FanDuel. It starts with a crucial game six situation in Cleveland, where the Cavs will look to fend off the Boston Celtics and force a game seven.

The same thing happens on Saturday, when the Golden State Warriors host the Houston Rockets. They also will be trying to win game six to force a decisive game seven.

It’s pretty simple for me on this slate; I fully expect the Cavs and Dubs to win and force a game seven, so I’m largely riding those two teams. If you disagree and think Houston or Boston are about to dominate or end these series, feel free to pivot as you see fit.

FanDuel also is offering their single game NBA DFS contests where you pick five players. I won’t be building one of those teams as long as there are two-day contests available, but perhaps you can use some of my analysis here to your advantage if that’s the route you take.

Either way, let’s dive into the Fri/Sat daily fantasy basketball slate and see which team may be best for FanDuel GPPs:

PG: Stephen Curry – Golden State Warriors ($9.7k)

I’ve been on Curry throughout this series. He hasn’t been insanely amazing, but he’s been rock solid with 40+ fantasy points in four of five games. With the Dubs facing elimination at home on Saturday, he might hand in his best performance of the entire playoffs.

Chris Paul is hurt and at a similar price tag, so he really isn’t an option for me. That might make him super contrarian, but on the road in a game I expect the Rockets to lose, he’s a big roll of the dice.

Terry Rozier is also in a tough spot and while he saves you some money, I don’t think he holds a candle to Chef Curry on this slate.

PG: George Hill – Cleveland Cavaliers ($5k)

The best PG combination for the conference finals has been Curry and CP3, but if Hill can show up like he did in games three and four, I think this is the way to go.

He’s really only been useful at home and Boston’s perimeter defense has been trash on the road. Insert Hill, who should be able to knock down some three balls and hopefully chip in some dimes and steals as well.

SG: J.R. Smith – Cleveland Cavaliers ($3.7k)

You can pick between Smith or Kyle Korver here, but like I’ve said in the past, I prefer Smith’s run. His floor time is a little more reliable and he’s just as capable of getting hot from outside.

He’s been pretty bad throughout this series, but with game six at home, it wouldn’t be that shocking to see him pop off and help Cleveland get a big win.

SG: Klay Thompson – Golden State Warriors ($6.5k)

Thompson logged over 40 minutes in game five, so whatever injury he’s dealing with should be a non-issue. He’s back home in a must-win situation in game six and he’s had some good games in this matchup in the past.

Golden State needs him here and if he can come close to his game one production (40 fantasy points), I think he’d be a big win here. Doubling down on Cavs spare SG options is one option, but the ownership could be split here with Jaylen Brown, Eric Gordon and Marcus Smart also holding some appeal.

Obviously some people will want to pay up for James Harden, too, but he’s been fairly weak in this series so that’s not an option for me.

SF: Kevin Durant – Golden State Warriors ($10.7k)

LeBron James is the preferred play from a raw points perspective, but like I’ve said before, you save about $3k with KD and he brings a nice floor and upside to the table. I expect him to have a huge game on Saturday as the Dubs try to stave off elimination and he makes for an elite pivot off of the pricier King James.

James is worth paying up for if you think he’s destined for one of his 70-burger performances, but I think the rest of the Cavs will need to step up if they’re going to win on Friday. I’m game for pivoting off of James and hoping his teammates deliver.

SF: Gerald Green – Houston Rockets ($3k)

Assuming my logic prevails, this is the pick that could make everything work. Green gets about 15 minutes per game in this series no matter what, but I think there’s a pretty good chance Golden State houses the Rockets in a game they can’t afford to lose. If that happens, Green could be extra busy off the bench in garbage time.

PF: Draymond Green – Golden State Warriors ($8.7k)

I don’t love Marcus Morris at his price and the other value plays at PF tend to be trash. I think paying up at both PF slots makes a lot of sense given the magnitude of these games. Green is part of that, as he recently guaranteed a series win and has to be better with the ball if Golden State is to live up to his words.

He’s actually been great for most of the playoffs and has triple-double upside, so I don’t mind spending up here. No other PF on this slate can match him and using him in lieu of forcing LeBron or Harden onto your roster makes a lot of sense.

PF: Kevin Love – Cleveland Cavaliers ($7.6k)

I highly doubt Green will be contrarian, but Love might be. He has not been great during Cleveland’s playoff run and in three of his five meetings with Boston he’s been painfully average. I still think he’s a good player that could come up huge in a crucial situation, though.

Love can still rebound well and hit the outside shot, so if he gets hot early he could have a big scoring game and play a huge hand in the Cavs forcing a game seven.

C: Aron Baynes – Boston Celtics ($4.7k)

I probably prefer Tristan Thompson here, but I already have four Cleveland players and he’s probably the fifth most useful option (perhaps even 6th behind Korver). Baynes is about as useful for DFS purposes, though, as he’s needed on the floor due to Cleveland’s two big men they roll out there.

Baynes is far from safe, but he could log 22-25 minutes in this one and could chase a double-double. I’m not expecting the world here, but given how weak Clint Capela and Al Horford have been, I can’t justify spending much cash at this position.

A common daily fantasy basketball strategy I’ve employed throughout this series has been fading Harden and King James on the same slate. That usually hasn’t even been that crippling, but my value picks keep burning me.

I’m taking a deep dive with Gerald Green in this one and if the Dubs go nuts like I think they can, I should both benefit from stacking them and also using a Rockets bench guy in a likely blowout.

Overall, I’m just stacking Dubs and Cavs and banking on both teams coming up big on their home floors as they try to keep their respective seasons alive.

Hopefully that leads to a profitable GPP experience when Saturday’s game wraps up. Either way, I wish you luck in your NBA DFS contests. Enjoy the games!

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Stanley Cup Finals: Knights vs Capitals Betting Tips

Written by Graeme & Scott on Friday, May 25th, 2018

The Stanley Cup Finals kick off on Monday, May 28th with Game 1 taking place in Las Vegas.

The finals features the Las Vegas Golden Knights vs the Washington Capitals.

Not the finals anyone was expecting and the sportsbooks will be laughing all the way to the bank. The Knights for obvious reasons but even the Capitals – no-one really took them seriously after their post-season woes the last few years.

It should be a very interesting series. The Knights won both games in the regular season against the Washington Capitals. They won 3-0 in Vegas and 4-3 in Washington.

For reference, here is the schedule for the 7 games:

Game 1: Monday, May 28th
Game 2: Wednesday, May 30th
Game 3: Saturday, June 2nd
Game 4: Monday, June 4th
Game 5: Thursday, June 7th
Game 6: Sunday, June 10th
Game 7: Wednesday, June 13th

Here are our thoughts:

Stanley Cup 2018 Winners Betting Tips:

Scott: The Knights made it look almost easy the way they reached the finals needing only 15 games to get here.  They are fast and Fleury has been amazing.  Just a great team to watch.

The Caps on the otherhand didn’t have an easy road to get here.  The needed 6 games to get past the Blue Jackets, 6 games to get by their longtime rivals and defending champs Penguins and 7 games to beat the Lightning. 

The Knights have been an incredible story but, argue with me if you want, they don’t deserve to win the Cup in their first season. It’s not that their play doesn’t deserve it, it’s just that they haven’t had the years of struggling that all teams have to go through.  The Caps have struggled in the playoffs for years now and the franchise has never won a Stanley Cup.

They don’t have home ice advantage this round but that shouldn’t be a problem for them as they have gone 8-2 on the road in these playoffs.  They clawed their way to get here and it’s time for Ovie and the Caps to win the Stanley Cup.

Capitals in 6 

Best odds for Capitals to win:

Canada: 2.15 odds at Bodog.
USA: +115 odds at Bovada.
Everyone Else: 2.10 odds at ***.

(Odds correct as of 2018/05/25 8:38:50 AM EST but are subject to change.)

Graeme: First of all I have to disagree with Scott in saying that they don’t deserve to win the cup. There’s no rule that states a team has to struggle prior to success. Plus while the franchise as a whole is new, the majority of their players aren’t.

These are players who have struggled for years and battled to be in the NHL and what were they told at the end of last season by their former teams? “We don’t need you. You’re expendable.”

William Karlsson gave 2 tough seasons for the Blue Jackets playing 81 games. Jonathan Marchessault wasn’t selected in the NHL draft yet kept fighting, killing it in the AHL and earning himself a place with the Florida Panthers. Where he was their highest goalscorer then told “nope we don’t need you”.

Most players on this team have a similar story. And they’ve worked extremely hard to get here. This is a team with no outright superstars yet as a team they’re one combined superstar. They’ve overcame all the odds and fully deserve not just to be here, but to win the Stanley Cup.

They looked the better and more complete team every series leading up to here as opposed to the Capitals, who lost 2 big games against the Jackets and then lost 3 in a row to Tampa.

The cup final itself however has he me highly conflicted. Washington at their best I dare say is better than the Knights at their best. I’ve watched them show the sort of gritty playoff performances they’ve missed from years past. This is a team who when the going gets tough – are actually getting tough.

It’s easy to write off Tampa after those last two games as they looked like they fizzled out but that would be a discredit to Washingdown. Down 3-2, they came back hard and showed the grit needed to win. It’s similar with the Knights vs Jets. It’s easy to write off the Jets after that Preds series saying they ran out of energy. However Winnipeg was probably the toughest place to go in the playoffs yet the Knights went there and won twice.

This is a real head vs heart bet. I feel in my head it’s a 50/50 series and either team can win. The odds have the Capitals as slight underdogs so that would be the more sensible bet. I’m also worried that on the big stage, the Knights fizzle.

My head says the Capitals are the better team. But prior to the season beginning, I made various prop bets on the Knights with about 6 different friends. All of them backed Knights under 30 wins or under 35 wins for the season and I took the over. Not that I believed in them or anything but being someone who loves Vegas in general, I sort of adopted them as my team and wanted to give me something to root for when watching them play. I fell in love with this team and honestly would be absolutely gutted if they don’t take this final step to glory.

I’ll go down with the ship. Knights to win

Best odds for Knights to win:

Canada: 1.76 odds at ***.
USA: -135 odds at Bovada.
Everyone Else: 1.76 odds at ***.

(Odds correct as of 2018/05/25 8:38:50 AM EST but are subject to change.)


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World Cup Tips: Group D Betting Preview

THERE’S always a Group of Death and this year it’s quite aptly Group D featuring Argentina, Croatia, Nigeria and Iceland.

Let’s start with favourites Argentina and once again Lionel Messi will be looking to add the greatest prize to his collection.

He’s often been the bridesmaid with his country and team-mates simply can’t set him up in forward areas the way his Barcelona pals do.

Argentina struggled through qualifying until Messi worked his magic against Ecuador. They say there are no easy games at the finals and while that’s not strictly true there are unlikely to be any in Group D with Croatia, Nigeria and Iceland all capable.

Messi’s men will hope to bank five or six points and rely on the others beating each other and tipping who’ll go through with the South Americans isn’t easy.

Croatia are second seeds and have some brilliant performers such as Luka Modric, Ivan Rakitic, Ivan Perisic and Mario Mandzukic. They should have enough quality to finish second but like France there are sometimes factions and in Russia everyone will need to be united.

Nigeria are a young side with some top players and their main problem could be keeping sides out. Alex Iwobi, Kelechi Iheanacho, John Obi Mikel and Wilfried Ndidi are their star turns and I expect them to give all their opponents trouble.

Iceland were the bottom seeds everyone wanted to avoid after their performance at Euro 2016 was followed by a first World Cup qualification.

Gylfi Sigurdsson is their star turn but they rely more on teamwork and set-pieces and often score fron long throws and corners. It’s not pretty but it’s pretty effective.

Recommended Bets

  • Iceland to bt Nigeria (9-5, BetStars)
  • Nigeria to finish bottom (8-5, Black Type)
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This post is originally from: mrfixitstips.co.uk

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Celtics vs. Cavaliers NBA Playoff Pick – May 25th

A strong start to the NBA playoffs has gone off the rails thanks to an Eastern Conference Finals that has been very tough to figure out. I came in hot, but have gone 1-4 through the first five games of this series, dropping my NBA playoff picks to 12-12-1.

I don’t have much of an excuse for it, other than I believed the Cavs would win game one. When they didn’t, I just felt there was no way they could lose game two. They did and suddenly I was in an 0-2 hole right along with them.

Going into game three, I correctly pegged the Celtics getting obliterated. I knew the Cavs would also win game four, but gave Boston the benefit of the doubt. They missed a push by two points.

Game five was especially annoying. LeBron James has made a living on winning game fives and giving his team the edge. He wasn’t good enough and the Cavs came up remarkably short in a pick’em game. Now they head back home with elimination staring them in the face.

Vegas isn’t giving me or anyone else a break for the gaffes in this series, either. If you want the Cavs, you need to pay -320 at Bovada or you need to back Cleveland to back a big -7 point spread.

Celtics fans probably feel good here at +7 and +260, but I don’t see Boston finishing this thing off in Cleveland. What’s the right bet, though? Let’s break game six down further to find out:

Boston Celtics (+7, -110) @ Cleveland Cavaliers (-7, -110) Total: 202 (-105/-115)

Based on how this series has gone, I think we know two things; the Cavs are pretty good at home and Boston doesn’t know how to win on the road.

The only time throughout the playoffs the Celtics won a road game, they needed OT to do it against a young 76ers team. In this series, their two road games in Cleveland weren’t particularly close and their perimeter defenses completely caved.

Cleveland is a penetrate and shoot type of team, as they thrive on LeBron James being aggressive and getting inside. Once there, he can decide to score on his defender, settle for a jumper or kick the ball out to one of his floor spacers.

It sounds basic and it is, but that’s what they do. They’re pretty good at it, but Boston has done a solid job of closing off their outside shooters at home. They haven’t done it on the road, though, and this is a recurring theme in their previous two playoff series.

I think the Cavs will come out very aggressive in this spot. They did something similar in game three and managed to cover big spreads in both of their home games.

The Cavaliers had admittedly been awful at covering spreads all year and Boston is pesky against the spread. The home/away splits are pretty extreme in this series and throughout the playoffs, however.

On a very basic level, I find it very hard to believe a young Celtics team can win this series in six games on the road. In that same breath, it also seems unrealistic for LeBron James to allow this to happen on his home court.

Ultimately, this all feels like one big tease. Cleveland is going to win game six – probably convincingly – and then managed to worm out of a jam in game seven as well. First, though, they need this game and I think they will wisely focus all of their energy here before thinking about game seven.

I hate the points, but the Cavs can’t afford to let this one be close. Look for them to win big and cover on Friday.

Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers ATS -7 (-110)

PLACE YOUR BET


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Petra Kvitova Is The Best Bet For A Wide Open Ladies French Open

Picking a favourite from the latest Ladies French Open betting market is like picking your favourite member of N-Sync - it's very difficult but one stands out above the rest. This is one of the most competitive Grand Slam markets in years as there are question marks against all of the leading candidates but we've trawled the draw and statistics to provide our best bet for Roland Garros...

27th May - 10th June Odds Won/Lost Bet
French Open Ladies      
Tips Petra Kvitova (each way)    Best Bet @ 14 / 1  

Where Is The Betting Value In The Top-Half Of The Draw?

World No. 1 Simona Halep is a marginal 6/1 favourite after losing in the final to Jelena Ostapenko almost 12 months ago and her search for a maiden major title continues after she was beaten in the final of the Australian Open earlier this year.

The Romanian will surely break her duck at some point but 6/1 is very skinny for a player who is in a loaded top-half of the draw that includes three-time champion Serena Williams, who plays her first Grand Slam event since giving birth in September. The unseeded 36-year-old has only played four matches on tour since the birth of her daughter and she could meet either two-time French Open winner Maria Sharapova (12/1) or 2017 semi-finalist Karolina Pliskova (18/1) in the fourth round.

Also lurking in the top-half is 2016 champion Garbine Muguruza (14/1) and the Spaniard faces an unenviable first round clash with 2009 winner Svetlana Kuznetsova.

The in-form Kiki Bertens could offer value at 25/1 after the recent Madrid runner-up reached the last-four of Roland Garros in 2016. Meanwhile, 2015 runner-up Lucie Safarova (200/1) might be worth a look at a bigger price as she has an excellent pedigree on clay after winning the French Open doubles crown twice in the past three years.

In truth, the top-half looks like a minefield and we'd take a tentativie punt on Sharapova after she reached the quarters of Madrid and the semis in Rome, albeit you fancy that she would need someone else to dispose of her old nemesis Serena - Sharapova has lost their past 17 head-to-head clashes...

The Best Bet For The Ladies French Open

Defending champion Ostapenko (14/1) is in the bottom-half and could meet Victoria Azarenka in the second round, while recent Rome winner Elina Svitolina can be backed at a skinny 13/2 as she continues her search for a first Grand Slam title.

We prefer the look of Petra Kvitova at the prices as she has hit top form this year, winning titles in Russia, Qatar, Prague and Madrid - Kvitova can be backed at 14/1 with Betfair. A semi-finalist in 2012, Kvitova has won 13 of her last 14 matches on clay and the Czech star enjoys the benefit of a very kind draw early on as the highest seeded player in her section is the American Sloane Stephens, before a potential quarter-final with Australian Open winner Caroline Wozniacki (25/1).

Wozniacki's record on clay leaves plenty to be desired and she faces a tough first round match against Timea Bacsinszky. Wozniacki has won all four of their previous meetings but they were all on hard courts and Bacsinszky is a different beast on clay. The 28-year-old is a massive 100/1 despite reaching the last-eight in her past three appearances at the French Open (SF-QF-SF), although the caveat to that fine tournament record is the fact that her 2018 campaign has been wrecked by injury and poor form so far.

2018 Ladies French Open Odds

*Odds correct as of 24th May, 13:51. Odds are subject to change.


Posted: Friday, 25th May 2018

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The Saint Greg Browning’s Tips: Bank on Austrians for goals

BEEN enjoying the unseasonal weather we are experiencing in Scotland and from my seat in the garden I’ve picked out tips from Austria.

Well done to the usual suspects – great to see loads of winners despite the obscure cards.

Been a quiet week from me but it’s the final round of fixtures tonight in the Austrian 2nd tier with all five games kicking off at 6.30pm.

Wacker Innsbruck v FAC (6.30pm)

It’s party time for the hosts as they will be presented with the league trophy after securing their return to the top flight. FAC though have their own agenda and know a win keeps them safe from the drop.

The league’s best attack meets the worst defence and although Wacker’s season is over they may well exploit gaps left as FAC go for the win. FAC have been terrific recently, a few weeks ago they were doomed but seven points from 9 (those 3 games ended 3-2, 3-3, 5-0) and they’ll fancy their chances of completing the great escape.

This should be a decent game and while Wacker have been terrific at home and deserved champions, really fancy FAC to score at least once.

  • BTTS and over 2.5 goals
  • ) (NAP)
  • FAC to score before 61 mins (5-6)
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Elarqam The One To Beat In Irish 2000 Guineas At The Curragh

Aidan O'Brien has a sensational record in the Irish 2000 Guineas, which takes centre stage at the Curragh on Saturday afternoon as he has trained the winner in seven of the last ten years, and the master of Ballydoyle will unleash a four-pronged attack in the 2018 renewal, but he will not saddle the favourite Elarqam, who is aiming to build on his fine fourth placed finish in recent 2000 Guineas Newmarket.

Saturday 26th May - 4.10pm Odds Won/Lost Bet
Irish 2000 Guineas      
Tips Elarqam to win    Best Bet @ 7 / 4  

Elarqam Heads The Betting, But Be Wary Of Ballydoyle Batallion

Unsurpisingly, there's a stellar field lining up for the race, and it's worth delving into the Irish 2000 Guineas Form Guide to try and help find the winner, and why you'd instantly look at the Aidan O'Brien-trained horses it's the Mark Johnston-trained Elarqam that heads the betting at 7/4 with most firms having run a fine race to finish fourth in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket.

He is still lightly-raced with only three career runs under his belt, but he looked like he could improve considerably for that Newmarket outing, and with a mile looking ideal for him then he has to be the one to beat at the Curragh, as he looks to land his first career Classic win in the Emerald Isle.

Us Navy Flag and Gustav Klimt spearhead the O'Brien quartet and the former was a fine juvenile last season winning the Dewhurst Stakes with aplomb, but he has struggled this season, and was only fifth in the French Guineas last time out, so it could be Gustav Klimt that makes more appeal, as he was only just beaten by Elarqam last time in the Newmarket Guineas, and is sure to run the Johnston raider close here, and at 7/2 with most firms is hard to see out of the frame.

Zihba And Symbolization Feature Prominently In Odds

Elarqam is the one to beat, and is entitled to be a 7/4 favourite with Ladbrokes, but as well as that aforementioned O'Brien duo the eye-catching Zihba (8/1 with William Hill) was an impressive winner of the Group 3 Amethyst Stakes last time out, and could play a primary role here, but may just come up short in top-class company.

Godolphin last won this race in 2005 with Dubawi, but the boys in blue will hope they can recapture the prize on Saturday as the unleash Symbolization, who is 14/1 with Betfair Sportsbook, and is a colt that has shaped with promise, but will need a career best to down some proven Group horses.

Of the others, Would Be King (20/1 with Betfred) and Threeandfourpence (33/1 with Ladbrokes) add more depth to the field, but it's a race that can be dominated by the fancied contenders, and it's Elarqam that can strike for favourite backers in a decent renewal of the Curragh showpiece,

2018 Irish 2000 Guineas Odds

*Odds correct as of 24th May, 12:41. Odds are subject to change.


Posted: Friday, 25th May 2018

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