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12 December 2019 Betting Tips
Morning, 5 tips today:
Just an advanced warning, there is a good chance I will stop the tipping service at the end of December. I don’t really have the time for it anymore and due to the fact that I get almost no feedback from people I have no idea if people are even looking or placing the bets. There is a chance I will continue only on Telegram.
I have asked multiple times for feedback, as well as wanting to know where people are betting so that I can tailor tips accordingly but it just hasnt happened.
Anyway, just wanted to give prior notice
12 December 2019 Basketball Euroleague Khimki v Berlin – Total Points Over 179.5…Odds 11/8 (2.38)….Bookmaker Will Hill….Rating 3*
12 December 2019 Rugby Union France 2 Grenoble v Biarritz – Biarritz +6 (3 Way Handicap)….Odds 10/11 (1.91)…Bookmaker Betway….Rating 4*
13 December 2019 Football France Lille v Montpellier – Total Montp Corners Under 3.5….Odds 23/20 (2.15)….Bookmaker Bwin….Rating 3*
13 December 2019 American Football Ravens v Jets – Ravens -4.5 1st Quarter Handicap….Odds 1.94….Bookmaker 22bet….Rating 3*
15 December 2019 American Football Chargers v Vikings – Total Chargers 1st Half Points Over 9.5….Odds 1.73….Bookmaker 22bet….Rating 3*
Just a reminder, the telegram channel with daily tips can be found here t.me/betcrafttips and there is a chat group where members share tips and generally talk betting here: t.me/betcrafttipping. I’m also available on Whatsapp at +447584676158.
Here is an explanation of the bet rating system, loosely based on the ideal staking plan named Kelly Criterion.
Good luck from BetCraft
Rangers vs. Sharks NHL Pick – December 12th
The San Jose Sharks will have a new look behind the bench tonight, as Peter DeBoer got his walking papers on Wednesday evening. DeBoer did some great things with the Sharks, leading them to the Stanley Cup Final in 2016 and they made it to the Eastern Conference Final last season. It doesn’t happen often that a head coach who delivered those kind of results gets canned.
This is less than three years after the Sharks were two wins away from winning the Stanley Cup. Sports is a what are you doing for me now business, and the Sharks have not been performing up to their potential in 2019-20. Amid a five-game losing streak, DeBoer was shown the door along with his assistants.
Former Florida Panthers head coach, Bob Boughner, will step in as the interim head coach. Boughner was fired for his inability to get the Panthers to the playoffs last season. If he can light a fire underneath the Sharks and get them going in the right direction, Boughner might be able to get the interim tag removed from his job title.
A couple of familiar faces to Sharks’ fans will be hired as assistants. Mike Ricci and Evgeni Nabokov will serve as assistant coaches, along with Roy Sommer. Players are going to have to play, though. There is talent on this team, but there has been a lot of dead weight in San Jose. Instead of being passengers, the Sharks need guys to play a more aggressive brand of hockey.
All is not dead for the Sharks this season. It hasn’t been ideal, as they head into tonight with a record of 15-16-2 and 32 points, but there’s only 8 points between them and 1st place at the moment. So what the front office tonight is that they better do something quickly before the season does completely get away from them.
They will welcome a Rangers team who are currently on a west coast road trip. The Rangers are coming off a lazy performance against the LA Kings on Tuesday night. San Jose has to expect that the Rangers put forth a better effort tonight. Following a stop in San Jose, the Rangers will wrap up their road trip in Anaheim on Saturday. Head below for our free Rangers vs. Sharks pick.
N.Y. Rangers vs. San Jose Sharks Betting Odds:
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Rangers vs. Sharks Prediction:
First there was Mike Babcock, John Hynes, then Jim Montgomery, and now Peter DeBoer has been fired from their head coaching duties. It’s likely that they won’t be the only head coaches in the NHL who won’t be unemployed by the end of the regular season. There are a few out there that have to be feeling nervous right about now.
Bob Boughner is going to be under pressure to lead this team now. He’s being handed another chance on a silver platter. Even he didn’t expect to be in this role again so quickly after the Panthers fired him. Boughner must get the Sharks back to basics and winning a lot more battles in the corners. And other than the usual contributors, the role players must play like they’re fighting for a job.
The Sharks get an opportunity to show tonight that they can play better against the Rangers. The Rangers are in the midst of a road trip and should present the Sharks with a nice chance to get a bounce-back spot on Thursday. Following their 5-0 win in Las Vegas, the Rangers didn’t care to play in LA on Tuesday night. They are likely going to get up for San Jose, but it could be difficult to match the intensity on the Sharks’ side tonight.San Jose is likely going to come out with a lot of energy in this one. The front office sent a loud message with the firing of DeBoer.
He’s a stoic head coach and hopefully with his departure the energy levels will be kicked up ten notches. They’re a better team than what has been displayed thus far and that’s what got DeBoer fired. Obviously if there weren’t much expectations, then a record hovering around .500 would be good enough. At least for a night, expect the Sharks to show some passion on the ice. That should translate into a win against the road weary Rangers on Thursday night in the Shark Tank.
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Sadio Manes PFA Player Of The Year Odds Drastically Slashed
Liverpool winger Sadio Mane is taking the Premier League by storm this season and is one of the main reasons why the Reds currently find themselves 8 points clear at the top of the table. Since he joined the club from Southampton back in 2015, Mane has often found himself playing in the shadow of Mohamed Salah, though his consistency in recent years has led many to believe that he is in fact Liverpool’s most important player, not the Egyptian who operates on the opposing flank each week.
While Salah is still a world class football player and imperative to what the Merseyside club are trying to achieve this season - obtaining their first ever Premier League title - it is Mane who continues to prove that he is one of the world’s best footballers and arguably the best out-and-out winger in the business right now.
This season, the Senegal international has scored 13 goals in all competitions, while laying off a further 8 assists. These are statistics that all contribute to Mane’s ever-strengthening cause to win the PFA Player of the Year award at the end of the season, should he continue in this vein for the remainder of the campaign.
Relentless. Magnificent. Unplayable. ⚡️⚡️⚡️
Your #MerseysideDerby Man of the Match, Sadio Mane! ? pic.twitter.com/YyWzJfjCse— Liverpool FC (@LFC) December 4, 2019
At the beginning of the season, the 27-year-old was priced as high as 25/1 to win the award but after a scintillating opening half to his campaign, those odds have now been slashed to as low as 7/4; Mane is now clear favourite to scoop the prestigious prize next April. Manchester City’s Kevin de Bruyne is currently second-favourite - priced at odds of 5/1 - while Leicester’s free-scoring front man, Jamie Vardy, is third-favourite at 7/1.
Raheem Sterling takes up fourth-place at 10/1, while four of Mane’s teammates - Mo Salah (16/1), Virgil van Dijk (16/1), Roberto Firmino (33/1) and Fabinho (33/1) all make up the rest of the top-eight. It is extremely hard to look past Mane at the moment, though, with his performances at present continually stealing the limelight in the Premier League.
This weekend, Liverpool welcome rock-bottom Watford to Anfield in what looks set to be a certain three points for the Reds considering both sides’ current form. It presents yet another opportunity for Mane to build on the nine goals and six assists he already has to his name in the top-flight, which in turn will only increase his stance as favourite to win the 2019-20 PFA Player of the Year award next year.
|Thursday - 10.00am||Odds||Bets|
|Sadio Mane PFA Player of the Year Odds|
|Sadio Mane to win the PFA Player of the Year award Best Bet||7/4||Betfair">|
Kings vs. Ducks NHL Pick – December 12th
The Los Angeles Kings are back at the Duck Pond in Anaheim following a 4-2 loss on December 2nd. The Kings were in good form in their most recent outing, as they dispatched a disinterested Rangers team at the Staples Center on Tuesday night. That’s truly been their calling card in the 2019-20 season. Take advantage of a team not interested in playing on a road trip and pick up an easy 2 points.
Jonathan Quick was on the verge of shutting out the Rangers and he gave up a late goal to break up the shutout. It was the same story for Marc-Andre Fleury, as he gave up a meaningless goal as well to break up a shutout opportunity. In any event, it was a good moment for Quick who has struggled mightily this season. Mind you, he hasn’t gotten much help, but it was nice to see him look like vintage Quick for a night.
The Kings will look to make it two wins in a row for only the third time this season against the Ducks of Anaheim. Anaheim was responsible for kickstarting a four-game losing streak for the Kings earlier this month. The Kings were trounced in Anaheim, and then lost three more games vs the Capitals, Oilers, and Flames. They ended that with a win over the Rangers on Tuesday. The Kings stand at 12-18-2 heading into Thursday, which is good for the basement of the Western Conference.
It’s going to be difficult for the Kings to be worse than the Red Wings this season. But, they are still going to have a lot of ping pong balls in the draft lottery. The Devils won the lottery without finishing last a season ago, so tanking doesn’t exactly work all the time. Anaheim aren’t too far ahead, as they welcome the Kings with a record of 13-14-4 and 30 points.
They put up a mirage early in the season with some decent play. However, their current talent level isn’t enough to sustain anything real. They’re coming off a nice shootout win over the Wild on Tuesday to account for their first win in three games. Head below for our free Kings vs. Ducks pick.
L.A. Kings vs. Anaheim Ducks Betting Odds:
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Kings vs. Ducks Prediction:
The Kings have 13 wins mainly because of where they play. Teams heading into LA aren’t taking them very seriously, and ultimately decide to use the game as a free pass instead of actually trying. No free passes are handed out in the NHL, though, even against a team like the Kings. The Kings should start to learn that anything isn’t handed out on the road. They’ve been abysmal on the road, as they continue to get punished with loss after loss outside of the Staples Center. They enter the Honda Center looking for only their third win on the road, as they sport a record of 2-12-2.
There is usually expected to be a bit of drop off on the road for most teams, but not as drastic as what the Kings are doing. Overall, the Kings are 29th in the NHL with 2.5 goals scored per game. That’s not good by any measure. However, things plummet down to only 2 goals scored in 16 games as a road team. When they aren’t beating teams who don’t care in Los Angeles, they’re getting hammered in other arenas. The same goes for Quick between the pipes, as he’s struggled considerably. Quick owns a 4.20 GAA and 0.85 save percentage in nine outings on the road. As a team the Kings have allowed 4 goals per contest.
The Ducks have had some success against the Kings in Anaheim. In their previous five meetings at the Honda Center, the Ducks have won four of five games. That included an average of 3 goals per game against only 1.8 goals scored for the Kings. John Gibson has been tremendous in his career against LA. He’s played them 15 times over the years and has come up big in the vast majority. Gibson owns a 1.89 GAA and 0.935 save percentage vs the Kings. With the Kings struggling to score on the road, he should be able to put in a productive night at the office in the crease. The Kings are auto fade material every time they step on opposing ice. At a reasonable price, consider a play on the Ducks on Thursday night.
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Hurricanes vs. Canucks NHL Pick – December 12th
The Carolina Hurricanes remain in Western Canada following an impressive performance against the Edmonton Oilers on Tuesday. They surged past the Oilers for a 6-3 win for their third win in a row. Sebastian Aho had a standout night as he fired home 2 goals to lead the Hurricanes in scoring. The Hurricanes have been heating up and have scored 12 goals in their past two outings.
They were also winners by a score of 6-2 against the Wild before heading to Edmonton. It’s not the easiest part of the schedule for them, as they won’t be home in Raleigh until December 21st. The Hurricanes have three more games in Canada and then wrap up their road with an appearance in Denver next week. All four are losable games, but the Hurricanes are a team that proved last season that they’re past the point of losing those kind of games, though.
They went on an improbable run last season to the Eastern Conference Final. It wasn’t a successful endeavour against the Boston Bruins, but standing with only three other teams was an accomplishment. Despite their success last season, it’s not going to be easy to get back to that spot in the spring. There is so much parity in the NHL that a first-round exit wouldn’t be any more of a surprise than a repeat appearance in the conference finals.
Winning the Metropolitan looks an impossible chore with the Washington Capitals running the show. The Capitals won again last night, as they put a deeper stranglehold on the division at 51 points. Carolina enter the evening at 19-11-1 and 39 points. The Canucks play in the tightly contested Pacific Division. Despite 34 points, they’re only 6 behind the Coyotes and Oilers for 1st. Just eight points separates the Sharks who are 6th and 1st.
The Canucks have their moments and then are capable of doing a good disappearing act as well. They’re a bubble team who are likely going to hang around and need a nice run in the final month to reach the playoffs. I think they are thinking about the larger picture and the future, though. Vancouver are on the cusp of being a really good team, but might need another year or two to get some experience. Head below for our free Hurricanes vs. Canucks pick.
Carolina Hurricanes vs. Vancouver Canucks Betting Odds:
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Hurricanes vs. Canucks Prediction:
There’s a lot to like on the Canucks. Elias Pettersson is on the verge of being a perennial All-Star, while Brock Boeser, Bo Horvat, and Quinn Hughes all figure to play a role in the future for the Canucks. They also landed J.T. Miller in the offseason from the Lightning, as they were looking to clear cap room and the Canucks needed a reliable left winger. Miller has been a nice piece on the second line with Pettersson and Boeser. He’s second on the roster with 31 points, just two behind Pettersson. I also really like Hughes and Tyler Myers on the blue line together, but their backend lines need to step up and provide a lift.
The Canucks have played well at home this season, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at the final score in their most recent outing. That said, it wasn’t a bad performance and the Leafs needed a bailout special by Frederik Andersen between the pipes to get the win. Andersen, who has bailed the Leafs out countless times in the past, put on a show with 38 saves in the 4-1 win. Jacob Markstrom was shaky, as he surrendered 3 goals on 25 shots. The Leafs added an empty netter to put the game out of reach late in the 3rd. Generally, though, the Canucks have done well at home with a record of 7-4-3. Their offence has looked sharp, having recorded 3.86 goals per game at Rogers Arena.
Petr Mrazek checked into Vancouver with a solid 2.60 GAA and 0.903 save percentage. He could improve on that for the Hurricanes to go deep in the playoffs. Mrazek has done his part at home, as he’s been better than solid with a 2.29 GAA. However, his numbers on the road haven’t been too attractive. He enters Rogers Arena with a 3.24 GAA and 0.891 save percentage as a visiting goaltender this season.
The Hurricanes’ offensive numbers slip to 2.88 goals per game on the road as opposed to 3.26 goals overall. Expect them to come into Vancouver feeling a bit too comfortable on their three-game winning streak. Long road trips aren’t easy, and I think the Hurricanes take their feet off the gas pedal in Vancouver tonight. The Canucks played well against the Leafs and just didn’t get any puck luck against Andersen. I can’t see laying -130 in this spot providing any value whatsoever. Look for the Hurricanes to hit a speedbump in Vancouver, which sets us up with good value on the home underdog.
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Golden Knights vs. Blues NHL Pick – December 12th
The Vegas Golden Knights are on the road for a Thursday night date with the Blues in St. Louis. They’re on a tough back-to-back with an appearance in Dallas tomorrow night against night against the Stars. Gerard Gallant will likely go with Marc-Andre Fleury against the Blues and Malcolm Subban in Dallas. Fleury made his return to the crease with a dominant performance against the Chicago Blackhawks on Tuesday. He was less than 30 seconds away from recording a shutout before Dominik Kubalik found a goal from the top of the circle to make it a 5-1 game. It was a quiet night before halfway in the 2nd period when the Golden Knights put a goal on the scoreboard and then didn’t let up.
Corey Crawford was left out to dry, as he made several key saves despite allowing 5 goals. He kept the Blackhawks in the game until no one gave him a hand, which included a shorthanded goal for the Golden Knights. Fleury was predictably strong in his first game back since his dad passed away. He really wanted that shutout, though, and was beating himself up for allowing the late goal to make it 5-1. You could tell that the team played really hard for him. They wanted the win badly and kept pressure on the Blackhawks all night. It’s one of the best all-around efforts we’ve seen out of the Golden Knights in 2019-20 so far. Their next two outings will not get any easier, though.
The Golden Knights are a 16-12-5 team with 37 points heading into St. Louis. With the Oilers and Coyotes tied for the lead in the Pacific, the Knights can inch closer tonight. The Coyotes are playing host to the Blackhawks while the Oilers are in Minnesota. Like I’ve said, the Pacific Division is wide open and going to be there for the taking all season. I don’t expect anyone to run away with it. Despite a so-so start to the season, the Golden Knights are only 3 points behind for the lead in the division so not bad for a team that hasn’t really hit their stride yet.
If they come out with the motivation they did against the Blackhawks the other night then the playoffs will easily be in their future. It would make it three playoff appearances in three years for the Golden Knights who’ve only been in the NHL for three years. In 2021, the Golden Knights will no longer be the newest team in the league. That’s when Seattle will begin their foray into the NHL. Don’t expect a repeat of what Vegas did in their first season, though. The Golden Knights hope to get back to where they were two seasons ago and where the Blues were last season. St. Louis were able to complete the deal with a Stanley Cup and are playing a lot better at this point in the year than they were last season. The Blues enter tonight with a record of 18-8-6 with the Avalanche close on their tails in the Central. Head below for our free Golden Knights vs. Blues pick.
Vegas Golden Knights vs. St. Louis Blues Betting Odds:
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Golden Knights vs. Blues Prediction:
The Blues are coming off a 5-2 loss against the Buffalo Sabres. They looked disinterested in that one, as the Sabres handed the Blues their third straight loss. The Blues also have recent losses against the Penguins and Maple Leafs, so there hasn’t been much to like of late in St. Louis. They were on a four-game winning streak prior to the poor performances. Two of three losses were on the road, with the other against the Maple Leafs in St. Louis. They do hold an advantage over the Golden Knights, though, in their most recent tilts. Note that the Blues are winners in three straight over the Golden Knights with wins of 3-1, 4-1, and 5-3.
The Golden Knights and Blues have matched up six times in their history. St. Louis has the edge with four wins in six games, and the two wins that the Knights had were in overtime. The one game wasn’t even close in terms of competitiveness, as the Blues outshot Vegas 49 to 22 but still fell in overtime. That’s the way it goes with hockey sometimes. You get a hot goaltender and there isn’t much that can be done despite a productive effort. Jordan Binnington has been doing a solid job in his first full season in the league. His promotion to the NHL sparked the Blues’ run to the Stanley Cup last season.
Binnington heads into Thursday with a 2.45 GAA and 0.921 save percentage in 23 games. He’s made one start against the Golden Knights and was sharp with 1 goal against on 25 shots for a 0.96 save percentage. His effort has been stout at home, posting a 2.25 GAA and 0.925 save percentage in 14 games. Vegas have been mediocre on the road this season with a record of 8-6-3. They’ve been average on both ends of the ice, having scored 2.69 goals per game and allowed 2.69 goals against per game. In their last ten games, they have been in that ballpark with 2.5 goals scored per game and 2.7 goals against.
It was an emotional return for Fleury to the crease on Tuesday. I think that carried over to the other players and they gave it their all for him. He was seconds away from the shutout, but the team still lifted him with 5 goals. I think the narrative is going to change slightly in St. Louis. They’re going to have to deal with a hungry Blues team who’ve been playing a sloppy game of hockey recently. As short favorites at home, expect the Blues to hold their own to edge the Golden Knights out by a score of 3-2 or 4-2.
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Edmonton Oilers vs Minnesota Wild NHL Pick – December 12
The NHL is set up with a lot of action on the board for Thursday night. Twelve games are up on the board in total for December 12. One of these matchups will be between the Edmonton Oilers and the Minnesota Wild. These two teams have had solid starts to the season and will look to earn another tough one on Thursday. This game will start at around 8:00 PM Eastern time.
The Oilers have started out this season with a record of 18-11-4, which has them tied for the top spot in the Pacific Division. The Arizona Coyotes are tied with them with 40 points, while the Calgary Flames are sitting only two points back. Edmonton has hit a bit of a bump, losing two in a row and five of their last seven. The Oilers will look to get back on track with a win on Thursday night.
Minnesota has earned a record of 14-12-5 to open up the new season, which has them tied for fifth place in the Central Division. The Wild are tied with the Nashville Predators and three points ahead of the Chicago Blackhawks. Minnesota has picked up their play as of late, winning five of their last seven, but dropping their last two.
Edmonton has been off to a tremendous start after missing out on the postseason last season, while the Wild were a little slow out of the gates. Both teams have lost two games in a row coming into this matchup and will look to bounce back. The Oilers are coming off a tough 6-3 loss to the Hurricanes, while Minnesota lost in a shootout to the Ducks.
The Oilers and the Wild met up three times throughout last season. Edmonton hosted the first game of the season series and took a tough 4-3 loss at home. The Oilers also hosted the second game of the season and rode a four point night by Connor McDavid to a 7-2 win. The final game shifted to Minnesota, where McDavid had two points as Edmonton won 4-1.
Minnesota hosted the first game of this season’s series on October 22. The Wild got going early as Eric Staal scored his first and second goal of the season in the first period. Brad Hunt tallied one on the power play off of a Staal assist to make it 3-0. Devan Dubnyk left the game with an injury, but he and Alex Stalock combined for a 25 shot shutout as the Wild won 3-0.
Edmonton and Minnesota have gone 2-2 against each other over this season and last. Connor McDavid had a point in all three games last season and at least two points in both of their wins. This season the Wild kept McDavid off the scoresheet and were able to win. Minnesota will look to do this again on Thursday night, but this is much easier said than done.
The Oilers special teams have been doing extremely well to start out this season. Edmonton’s power play has scored 31 goals on 98 chances this season, which is an amazing 31.6 percent success rate. The Oilers penalty kill has only allowed their opponents to score 16 power play goals on 104 opportunities, which is an 84.6 percent kill rate.
Minnesota’s special teams are sitting a bit below the league averages to this point in the season. The Wild’s power play has capitalized on 19 of their 104 chances this season, which is good enough for an 18.3 percent. Minnesota’s penalty kill has allowed opposing teams to score 20 goals on their 92 chances, which is a 78.3 percent.
Edmonton’s special teams have been tremendous to this point in the season, which I believe could give them a big edge in this matchup. The Oilers allow a lot of power play chances for opposing teams, but I think that their kill will be good enough to shut down the Wild. As for Minnesota, they will need to stay out of the box as much as possible to avoid facing Edmonton’s lethal power play.
I expect Mike Smith to get the nod in the crease for Edmonton on Thursday night. Smith has earned a record of 7-7-2 through 16 starts this season. He has posted a save percentage of .903 and a 2.88 GAA. Smith’s last start came against the Buffalo Sabres, where he stopped 19 of the 22 shots against him in an overtime loss.
Alex Stalock is projected to get the start in net for the Wild in this matchup. Stalock has a record of 8-4-2 through his games played on the season. He has put up a .906 save percentage and a GAA of 2.91. Stalock’s last start was against the Carolina Hurricanes, where he stopped 34 of the 39 shots against him in a losing effort.
These two goalies have put up similar stat through the season so far. Stalock has a slightly better save percentage, while Smith has a slightly better GAA. Both goalies are coming off tough performances in their last game, but will look to bounce back in this one. Both defenses will look to put up strong performances in front of their goalies to help give their team the edge.
The Wild were able to take the first game of the season series, but I believe that Edmonton will bounce back with a win in this one. Minnesota was able to shut down the Oilers offense and Connor McDavid in the first matchup. I do not think that the Wild will be able to shut down Edmonton’s strong offense and power play in this one, which I think will give them the win.
BetOnline has Minnesota listed as a -135 against the money line in this one. This implies that the Wild will win this game around 57.5 percent of the time. I believe that even with Minnesota hosting this game, it should be much closer to even. The Oilers have been better overall this season and I think that they will win this game on the road.
Winnipeg Jets vs Detroit Red Wings NHL Pick – December 12
The NHL has a busy night of action on Thursday night with twelve games up on the board. One of these matchups on December 12 will be the second game of a home and home between the Winnipeg Jets and the Detroit Red Wings. Both teams will look for a win on Thursday night as the puck will drop around 7:30 in this one.
Winnipeg has started out the season with a record of 19-10-2, which has them in third place of the Central Division. The Jets are two points behind the St. Louis Blues and one point behind the Colorado Avalanche in the standings. Winnipeg has won two games in a row and six of their last eight games. The Jets will look to earn another win against Detroit on Thursday night.
The Red Wings have started out the season with a disappointing 7-22-3 record, which has them in last place of the entire NHL. Detroit is six points behind the New Jersey Devils, which are second worst in the league. The Red Wings have lost twelve games in a row coming into this matchup and sixteen of their last nineteen games. Detroit will look to end this losing streak in this one.
The Jets and the Red Wings met up only on Tuesday night in Winnipeg and will meet up again in this one. These two teams have had very opposite starts to the season, but will both look for a win. Detroit has looked like they will be a serious contender for the top overall pick this season and will look to try and move up the standings a bit before it is too late.
Winnipeg and Detroit met up two times throughout last season. The Red Wings hosted the first game of the season series. Kyle Connor and Dustin Byfuglien both scored to help the Jets win 2-1. The second game of the season series shifted to Winnipeg, where Kyle Connor had a goal and two assists to help the Jets sweep the season series with a 4-2 win.
The first game of this season’s series was hosted by Winnipeg on December 10. Andrew Copp and Blake Wheeler both had a goal and an assist. Christoffer Ehn had the only goal for the Red Wings to tie it up at 1-1 before the Jets went off. Laurent Brossoit had a 15 shot shutout, while Connor Hellebuyck allowed a goal on two shots when he came in for a pad malfunction with Brossoit. Winnipeg pulled away with a dominant 5-1 win.
The Jets have won four games in a row against the Red Wings. Detroit has been near the bottom of the league standings over the last few seasons, while Winnipeg has been a consistent playoff contender. This seems to be the case again this season, but I believe that the Red Wings will have a good chance to pull off the win to end this losing streak on Thursday night.
The Jets special teams have not been off to a good start this season, despite their strong start. Winnipeg’s power play has capitalized on 15 of their 96 chances, which is a 15.6 percent success rate. The Jets penalty kill has held opposing teams to 17 goals on 76 opportunities, which is a 77.6 percent kill rate on the season.
Detroit’s power play has struggled this season as well. The Red Wings power play has scored 15 goals on 101 chances, which is good enough for a 14.9 percent. Detroit’s penalty kill has allowed 28 goals on 102 opportunities to their opponents this season. The Red Wings penalty kill has killed off 72.6 percent of the penalties against them.
Winnipeg’s special teams have not been doing well this season, but they had an alright night on Tuesday. The Jets scored a power play goal and a shorthanded goal in their win over the Red Wings. I believe that Detroit will make some solid adjustments coming into this one to try and avoid Winnipeg dominating them on special teams again.
Connor Hellebuyck is expected to get the start in the crease for Winnipeg on Tuesday night. Hellebuyck has a record of 15-7-2 through his games played. He has earned a save percentage of .933 and a 2.24 GAA. Hellebuyck’s last start was against the Anaheim Ducks, where he turned away 31 of the 33 shots against him in route to a victory.
I believe that Jonathan Bernier will get the nod in the net in this matchup. Bernier has earned a 5-9-2 record through his 16 starts on the season. He has a .888 save percentage and a GAA of 3.41 throughout those starts. Bernier’s last start came against the Pittsburgh Penguins. He stopped 19 of the 23 shots he faced as the Red Wings took the loss.
The Jets have a big edge with Hellebuyck in net for this game. Hellebuyck has put up strong numbers this season and it has helped lead to Winnipeg’s success. Bernier on the other hand has struggled, but he has not gotten much help from Detroit’s defense. The Red Wings were able to score their only goal on Hellebuyck on Tuesday night and will look to try and solve him again in this one.
Winnipeg has pulled out four straight wins against the Red Wings, including a win on Tuesday night, but I believe Detroit will win on Thursday. The Red Wings are on a long losing streak and I think it is due time for them to end it. Detroit can match up well with the Jets on special teams, so if they can play a solid game during five on five play, they could pull off the upset.
BetOnline has Winnipeg listed as a -178 against the money line in this game. This implies that the Jets will win this game around 64 percent of the time. Winnipeg has been the much better team, but the Red Wings have a lot of value as huge underdogs at home. Teams do well on the second night of a home and home after losing the first one and I think Detroit could continue this trend.
Wolves v Besiktas: Expect goals in dead-rubber encounter
WOLVES conclude their Europa League group-stage campaign on Thursday night against Besiktas. Anthony Olsson (@Ant_olsson93) analyses the encounter.
Wolves v Besiktas | Thursday 12th December 2019, 20:00 | BT Sport
Wolves host Besiktas in the last round of group games in this season’s Europa League and they have the chance to top the group should results go their way. The Old Gold have already qualified for the knockout phase, which is very impressive considering they were in what looked like a tough group on paper.
So far, Wolves have managed to gain 10 points from their five games and they’ll be looking to try and give themselves an easier draw by taking top pool honours. Nuno Espirito Santo’s men haven’t been great at home though, winning once and scoring a solitary goal.
Nevertheless, Wolves do get to face a Besiktas side who struggle on their travels in the Europa League. The Turkish side have an underwhelming record having won just six of their 17 away matches.
The visitors do have a good record of late having won their last six competitive games and they could find themselves grabbing a good result if Wolves rest some of their starting team. The Turkish side are priced at 6/1 (***) to win the match.
This game has a bit of a dead-rubber feel to it, I’m not sure how strongly Wolves will be looking to finish top and resting players is a big possibility with the upcoming Christmas fixture list on the horizon. I think this match does have the potential for goals though and I like the look of Both Teams To Score at 21/20 (Vbet).
Wolves have managed to score twice or more goals in five of their last six and Besiktas have notched two goals or more in four out of their last six outings.
Another angle I like in this match is in the Anytime Goalscorer market. Wolves wing-back, Matt Doherty, has been in good form in front of goal lately and should he get enough time on the pitch could find himself with a few chances to score.
Doherty has two goals in six appearances in the competition and has three goals in his last six encounters for club and country. Doherty is 4/1 (***) to find the back of the net at any time.
This could be an intriguing game and hopefully it should provide a few goals for the neutral. If Wolves rotate their side it will be interesting to see how the fringe players fair against a rather unpredictable Besiktas side.
Wolves v Besiktas – Both Teams To Score (21/20 Vbet)
Wolves v Besiktas – Matt Doherty to score at anytime (4/1 ***)
TheSportsGeek AI Predictions for NFL Week 15
Going into week 15, our model(s) continue to perform slightly better than the 52.4% required to break even when betting against the spread. The table below provides all our computer predictions going into week 14. We analyzed them and determined what we think, are the best games to bet on.
|Jets (14%)||Ravens (86%)||Ravens by 12|
|Bears (47%)||Packers (53%)||Packers by 3|
|Patriots (85%)||Bengals (15%)||Patriots by 5|
|Seahawks (58%)||Panthers (42%)||Seahawks by 6|
|Texans (51%)||Titans (49%)||Texans by 1|
|Dolphins (56 %)||Giants (44%)||Dolphins by 5|
|Eagles (59%)||Redskins (41%)||Eagles by 3|
|Broncos (20%)||Chiefs (80%)||Chiefs by 9|
|Buccaneers (45%)||Lions (55%)||Lions by 6|
|Browns (60%)||Cardinals (40%)||Browns by 6|
|Jaguars (55%)||Raiders (45%)||Jaguars by 3|
|Vikings (55%)||Chargers (45%)||Vikings by 2|
|Rams (44%)||Cowboys (56%)||Cowboys by 4|
|Falcons (22%)||49ers (78%)||49ers by 8|
|Bills (60%)||Steelers (40%)||Bills by 11|
|Colts (33%)||Saints (67%)||Saints by 6|
Here Are Our Recommended Bets for Week 15
Against the Spread
Bills @ Steelers (-2.5) – (Our AI predicts the Bills to win by 11) – Buffalo saw its three-game winning streak snapped last Sunday against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens and just barely missed covering the +6.5 spread with a final score of 24-17. They keep it in the AFC North for another week with a road spot against surging Pittsburgh, in which the they will get 2.5 points.
Josh Allen and the Bills defense have kept Buffalo competitive all season long and have managed well against the spread, currently at a mark of 8-4-1. The Steelers haven’t done too bad when squaring off against the line either, as Pittsburgh enters week 15 at 7-4-2 ATS.
The Steelers have won three in a row with the most recent coming against the Arizona Cardinals and rookie quarterback Kyler Murray. One of the best defenses in football and a fine job from head coach Mike Tomlin has gotten the Steelers into the playoff picture on a year where things were expected by many to be tumultuous, especially after quarterback Ben Roethlisberger saw his season end early on.
With the defensive play, coaching performance, and defying of expectations for both teams, this one is without question one of the better games of the week 15 slate. Our AI projects a convincing Bills win, but I am going to emphasize the cover instead.
I don’t see Josh Allen doing much statistically as the league-best Steelers pass rush should make its presence felt all day long. Buffalo’s defense, however, is the key in this one, as Duck Hodges should struggle against what is also a very formidable defensive front.
Bills (+2.5) correlates with our system’s prediction but also serves as a risk management opportunity in case the Steelers were to win the game in close fashion, as a Bills loss within the posted line would result in a win for any bettor who jumps on it. For that reason, I am rolling with the spread, as it is hard to envision the Bills winning with that kind of deficit in Pittsburgh.
Writer’s Pick: Bills (+2.5)
Bears @ Packers (-4.5) – (Our AI predicts the Packers to win by 3) – The oldest rivalry in professional football sees its 200th installment this week with division-leading Green Bay laying 4.5 at Lambeau Field. It was just a few weeks ago when both fans and the media were speculating how much longer the Bears and head coach Matt Nagy would stick with quarterback Mitch Trubisky.
Since then, the third-year quarterback has done what he has needed to do in relatively big spots. With a solid performance on Thanksgiving Day in Detroit and a big Thursday night win against Dallas last week, the Bears have now won three straight.
While they have not been good against the number this season (4-9 ATS), this rivalry spot is an intriguing one given our model projects the Packers to win in a fashion that would allow both a Green Bay victory and a Chicago cover.
I have stayed away from the Bears much of 2019, but in the NFL, you do not bet teams, you bet numbers, and this is a good line that has some backing from the computers. Expect Trubisky and Nagy to do just enough with their game plan to keep within the 4.5.
Writer’s Pick: Bears (+4.5)
Vikings @ Chargers (+2.5) – (Our AI predicts the Vikings to win by 2) – Minnesota followed up its close Monday night loss to Seattle with a dominating victory over Detroit and now find themselves taking on a Chargers team that is very hard to trust.
Los Angeles snapped their three-game losing streak with a 45-10 blowout over Jacksonville and hosts the matchup against Minnesota, getting two and a half points as a home dog.
The Chargers possess talent yes, but their lack of a true offensive identity with Philip Rivers’ ups and downs under center has made them hard to gauge all of the 2019 campaign.
Much of the same can be said about the Vikings, but things have stabled as of late and they sit with the 6th seed intact as of right now when looking at the NFC’s playoff picture.
Possessing one of the best rosters in the league, Minnesota seems to have an elite player in nearly every positional category, and its most important player, quarterback Kirk Cousins has totaled 24 touchdowns to just four interceptions. He has a rating of 112.0 and has silenced many critics as the Vikings close in on a wild card berth. Furthermore, it has proved to be the best season of his eight-year pro career.
There are certain areas where the Chargers matchup favorably, but across the board, the Vikings will be too much for any one standout player to overcome from a personnel standpoint. Danielle Hunter and the Vikings defensive line will make life tough for Rivers, and the use of Dalvin Cook out of the backfield will only make things easier for Cousins.
Our system has Minnesota slated by a 2-point margin of victory, falling in line with what is projected from the sportsbook. Yet, I am deciding not to be compromised by the spread in this one and am rolling with the better team on the road to capture the straight up win.
Writer’s Pick: Vikings SU
Falcons @ 49ers (-11) – (Our AI predicts the 49ers to win by 8) – The 49ers have been featured in potential Super Bowl and conference championship matchups the past two weeks on the road, with last Sunday’s pulse pounding win over the Saints serving as a bounce-back from a close loss to the Ravens the week prior.
San Francisco was able to take back the division lead from Seattle and now sits as the #1 seed in the NFC postseason landscape. With a physical style of play highlighted by their defense and running game, the Niners have shown both substance and flash as the play of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has been stellar the past month.
He totaled 349 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception in the shootout last week against New Orleans and was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week for his efforts. He has racked up 25 touchdowns to 11 interceptions on the year and showed his moxie in the clutch last week.
Many will believe that this game serves as a trap spot given the emotional and high stakes win last week. But with no point spread to worry about the degree of victory is a non-factor in this pick.
Atlanta did have a nice 40-20 win over Carolina in week 14 which saw Falcons QB Matt Ryan have a strong day, but Nick Bosa and DeForest Buckner will ensure that it does not repeat itself.
While Garoppolo is the favorable choice in the quarterback matchup, it is San Francisco’s skills in the trenches and ability to run the football with multiple people that will make Sunday a long day for Atlanta.
The AI predicts an eight-point Niners victory, implying that the Falcons will cover the eleven points at the betting counter. If Ryan has another strong outing they could fall in that gap, but the 49ers will take the straight up victory nonetheless while hoping to tighten their grip on first place.
Writer’s Pick: 49ers SU
Europa League: Winner-takes-all in Gladbach
THE Europa League group-stage concludes on Thursday. Tom Love (@TomLove_18) runs the rule over the best betting options in games not involving British interest.
Dynamo Kiev v Lugano | Thursday 12th December 2019, 17:55 | BT Sport
Group B has been an eminently forgettable one. The one big moment was the last-minute Markus Rosenberg winner for Malmo in Sweden against Dynamo Kiev, and that win has put the cat amongst the pigeons as three sides still harbour hopes of qualification on this, the final gameweek.
Kiev were ahead at one point a fortnight ago but a red card to Serhiy Sydorchuk meant they were hanging on to a 3-3 draw by the skin of their teeth before a glancing header from Malmo main man Rosenberg dramatically won it at the death, crushing Kiev hearts.
That all means that it is no longer in their hands, the Ukrainian outfit have to win at home to Lugano and hope Malmo fail to beat Copenhagen. It’s rare you get such a convoluted series of possible outcomes but given the high penchant for draws in this group it makes things a bit more complicated.
Anyway, Dynamo simply have to win and they should against already eliminated Lugano. The side from the scenic Swiss lakes have had a disappointing campaign domestically and haven’t faired better in this competition, failing to win a game yet. It would be a shock if they got a result here, particularly with nothing riding on it for them but pride.
Kiev are short enough at 2/9 but we can get some 10/11 (Coral) if we back the hosts to win and Under 3.5 Goals. It looks like one of those games where they will rest on their lead and try keep the ball, particularly if they go 2-0 up as all they can do is win and hope results go their way.
Goal difference counts for nothing here so expect a professional, ‘get the job done’ performance from the home side.
Getafe v Krasnodar | Thursday 12th December 2019, 17:55 | BT Sport
Let’s finish how we started eh?
In my first Europa League piece of the season we backed bad boys Getafe in the cards market and cleaned up. I’m a loyalist and I’m going back in on them again here in their final group game.
Geta know a draw will suffice for them as they welcome Krasnodar to the Coliseum Alfonso Perez and that may put off a few looking at the Spanish side at short 4/6 quotes.
Krasnodar, on the other hand, have to win – a draw would see them go level on points with their counterparts but because they lost the reverse leg in Russia they will lose the head-to-head battle and therefore not qualify.
So from the get-go Getafe have something to hold onto, and that’s something that won’t faze Jose Bordalas’ battle-hardened troops. Bordalas surely has to be seen as one of the top three coaches in La Liga in 2019 and no doubt clubs will be sniffing around the no-nonsense gaffer.
It’s not always the prettiest on the eye but it’s functional, aggressive and organised football that ultimately garners positive results. They’re used to playing without the ball and they’ll be happy to defend here.
In their efforts to keep opposition chances at a premium they tend to be physical in their approach and that in turn leads to a high volume of cards. To my memory, no team in Europe picked up more cautions that Getafe last season and it’s been a similar case this.
They’re averaging around 3.00 cards per-game in this competition and a mammoth 3.32 cards per-game in La Liga. They’ll share the fouls out and protect at all costs. I’m staggered we can get 5/2 (Skybet) on them to collect the most Bookings Points here.
Krasnodar are a card-heavy team themselves and could pick up a few too but if the hosts keep the result in their favour I think they’ll be at liberty to foul/timewaste more often. The 1/2 on both teams 20+ booking points is fine acca material but it’s too short to put up as a single.
The 11/8 on Getafe to earn 30+ Bookings Points also appeals but I’m willing to chance the longer price in what should be a feisty game involving the kings of the dark arts.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Istanbul Basaksehir | Thursday 12th December 2019, 20:00 | BT Sport
There’s a huge game in Group J as two teams with the possibility of progression meet. Both Borussia Monchengladbach and Istanbul Basaksehir have a chance of going through.
The hosts know if they avoid defeat they’re through whereas the visitors have to win and overtake the Germans if they want to qualify. They can’t rely on the Roma vs Wolfsberger result so it’s all on this for them. They are a good side though, as they’ve shown in a tough group.
The recently formed capital club have experienced names among their ranks such as Gael Clichy, Mehmat Topal and Eljero Elia who know what it takes to play at this level. Edin Visca And Enzo Crivelli add a dangerous attacking threat to the side too. They’re in decent form at the moment and I’m not sure they should be as big as 8/1 here in a game they have to win.
Maybe they’re such long odds because of Monchengladbach’s excellent season thus far. The Foals top the Bundesliga tree as the Hinrunde approaches and recently made a mockery of 5/1 quotes on them to beat Bayern Munich, winning 2-1.
Former Salzburg manager Marco Rose is Doug a sterling job in North-Rhine Westphalia and deserves a lot of credit. Gladbach were a team in the European scene under Dieter Hecking and Lucien Favre but Rose has taken them to new heights. It’s a very well run club and they play attractive football to get their positive results.
I do fancy goals here and the 11/8 on Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals (Skybet) looks too big, in my opinion. The Turkish side have to attack at some point but Gladbach are so swift on the break that they should score too.
I’m also willing to get involved with the card markets. Using BetVictor’s PriceItUp feature we can get a fair 3/4 on Both Teams Collecting Over 1 Card and that bet is made for scenarios like this. With one team holding on and the other needing the win, it’s pretty much a one-off game so there’s plenty of potential for cynical fouls, head-losses and time-wasting.
German sides aren’t usually known for their ill-discipline but Gladbach have been a dirty team in this tournament picking up an average of 3.00 cards per game. Basaksehir are averaging 2.00 cards per-game too. Chuck those stats in with the magnitude of the game and that 3/4 should probably be shorter.
Dynamo Kiev v Lugano – Dynamo Kiev to win and Under 3.5 Goals (10/11 Coral)
Getafe v Krasnodar – Getafe to earn the most Bookings Points (5/2 Skybet)
Borussia Monchengladbach v Istanbul Basaksehir – Both Teams Over 1 Card (3/4 BetVictor)
Borussia Monchengladbach v Istanbul Basaksehir – Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals (11/8 Skybet)
Flyers vs. Avalanche NHL Pick – December 11th
It was a real nice night with my free NHL picks last night as I went 3-1 and notched some quality profits in the process.
Ill start with my losing pick with the Oilers as slight home underdogs against the Hurricanes. Carolina jumped out to a 3-0 first-period lead and while the Oilers managed to score the next three goals to tie it, the Canes went on to score another trio of goals and deserved the win in a 6-3 disposing of the Oilers.
However, it was all gravy otherwise.
I had the Sabres as +121 home underdogs to upset the visiting St. Louis Blues and that’s precisely what happened. The Sabres led 1-0, 2-1 and 3-2 in this game before adding a couple of empty-net goals to hit us a winner with a 5-2 victory.
At about the same time, the Canadiens and Penguins were playing to a low-scoring affair. It was 1-0 Pittsburgh for quite a while until the Canadiens scored three goals in the second half of the second period to put out pick in some danger. However, a Brendan Gallagher empty-net goal in the third was all the scoring the rest of the way and the under 6.5 hit at -117 with a 4-1 Habs win.
Finally, the Maple Leafs were able to go into Vancouver, build a 2-0 lead and never look back in a 4-1 win at -117 odds. We can largely thank Frederik Andersen as he stole the show for the road side and we don’t win this pick without his outing, although a red-hot Andersen was certainly part of my criteria in picking the Maple Leafs.
All told, it was a great night and I’ll now turn my attention to tonight’s three-game NHL schedule!
Season Record: 47-40-1
Let’s take a look at this cross-conference free NHL pick featuring the Flyers vs. Avalanche from the Pepsi Center in Colorado!
Flyers vs. Avalanche Betting Odds
- Flyers (+141)
- Avalanche (-156)
- Flyers +1.5 (-180)
- Avalanche -1.5 (+160)
- Over 6 (-113)
- Under 6 (+102)
Flyers vs. Avalanche NHL Pick Breakdown
Now let’s take a look at each of these clubs before I get into my final pick!
General manager Chuck Fletcher had an underrated offseason. He made a couple of low-key trades to bring in Matt Niskanen and Justin Braun as shutdown defenders, re-signed veteran backup Brian Elliott and added center Kevin Hayes to lengthen his depth down the middle.
The moves have paid off as the Flyers have surged into a top-three spot in the difficult Metropolitan Division while they’ll enter this one having won six of their last seven games and seven of their last nine.
The Flyers have improved dramatically at both ends of the ice this season from a disappointing playoff-less season a year ago. Their 3.10 goals per game ranks 14th, but more importantly their defense ranks seven after finishing last season at 29th.
However, the concern tonight is that both of these numbers regress dramatically on the road.
The Flyers enter this one sporting the NHL’s 20th-ranked road offense with 2.57 goals per game, but their defense goes from second at home with 2.13 goals against per game all the way to 19th with 3.29 goals against per game on the road.
The advanced numbers fully support a big drop in play on the road, as well.
The Flyers are near the top in the league in most advanced numbers at home, but their simply plummet on the road.
Needless to say, the Flyers have made things difficult on their goaltenders away from home, and it shows in Carter Hart’s numbers as he gets the nod in this one tonight.
Hart enters this one sporting a 2.39 GAA and .909 Sv% on the season, thanks exclusively to a 1.62 GAA and .940 Sv% at home to go along with an 8-1-2 record.
On the road, however, Hart has been pummelled to the tune of a 3.78 GAA and .849 Sv% on the road across seven starts and eight appearances to go along with a 2-4-1 record.
Truth be told, I expect both numbers to regress and his home/road splits to narrow as the season moves along, but for now those are some awful numbers everywhere but the Wells Fargo Center this season.
The Avs saw their six-game win streak snapped at the hands of the Calgary Flames on Monday in a 5-4 overtime loss on home ice.
The Avs had previously allowed just four goals over their three-game road trip through Toronto, Montreal and Boston, but their uninspiring home defense cost them in this one.
The Avalanche enter this one ranked just 25th while allowing 3.08 goals per game at home this season while their 75.6% home penalty kill has hurt them and ranks 28th league wide.
However, the home offense also showed up in the loss.
The Avs enter this one as the NHL’s highest-scoring home offense where they average 4.08 goals per game while their 24.5% mark on the power play at the Pepsi Center checks in at ninth.
The Avs have now scored 15 goals over their last three at home.
The Avs’ advanced numbers are pretty good at home where their 52.07% CF% ranks 12th, their 54.39% SCF% ranks 11th and their 57.58% HDCF% mark ranks seventh. The latter could be a big factor against a Flyers team that’s been dominated the high-danger chances game on the road this season.
At this point, it looks like Pavel Francouz will once again get the start in this one tonight as Philipp Grubauer continues to heal from a minor groin ailment, although Grubauer is likely going to be backing up tonight.
Francouz had a tough night against the Flames as he allowed five goals on 33 shots (.848 Sv%), although he’s been excellent on the whole this season.
He enters this one sporting a 2.50 GAA and .923 Sv% on the season, although his splits favor the road side as he’d posted a 2.99 GAA and .901 Sv% in five starts and six home appearances.
Still, Francouz has been reliable in the Avs crease for the most part and will look to bounce back from Monday’s loss in this one.
The Flyers enter this one with a decent 7-6-1 record on the road this season, but I’m having a hard time trusting them away from home.
Best NHL Betting Sites
For one, both their offense and defensive raw numbers plummet on the road. Most of their advanced stats do as well.
I’m also worried about the fact that the Flyers get some heavily out-chanced in the high-danger chance department while the Avs control that area at home along with their league-best home offense.
I’m going to need to see improvements from the young Hart before I can trust him on the road as well.
I’m not entirely comfortable with taking the Avs on the moneyline here at those -156 odds. What I’m doing to do is lower my risk and maintain the same reward by taking the Avs to win this one in regulation at more reasonable -105 odds.
Thursday's Horse Racing Betting Tips & Predictions: 12th December 2019
There are five meetings in Britain on Thursday across a busy day. They go jumping at Newcastle, Taunton and Warwick before evening action on the all-weather at Chelmsford City and Wolverhampton.
We have three selections from the five meetings for Thursday’s horse racing predictions.
Falcon Cliffs to win and each-way @ 9/4 - BET NOW
Last-time-out Chelmsford City scorer Falcon Cliffs has been found a very presentable opportunity to defy a 5lb rise in the weight for last month's 1m5½f success.
That was her third rock-solid performance on the all-weather circuit, having also gone close over C&D in early October.
She only just failed to reel in the winner that day (winner eased) but had more than four-lengths in hand on the re-opposing Yasir.
1m4f around Kempton was likely a bit sharp next time for Falcon Cliffs when finishing third but she took her chance in decisive fashion at Chelmsford 34 days ago.
Yasir ran well at Lingfield last week but has that previous ground to make up on the selection and has also proved tough to win with, while another live danger Master Burbidge has been out of form over jumps of late.
Falcon Cliffs is the form pick and had enough in hand last time to suggest she can go in again.
Palladium to win and each-way @ 2/1 - BET NOW
Nicky Henderson has an impressive 31 per-cent strike rate at Warwick from 29 runners during the previous 12 months and he can add to that tally with hurdles newcomer Palladium this afternoon.
The Champs Elysees gelding couldn't break his duck in six starts on the Flat when trained by Martyn Meade but he was competitive in handicaps from a mark of 73 and has a winning hurdler in his family, so there is every chance he is going to be prove a good acquisition for Team Seven Barrows.
He hasn't run since Yarmouth in July (third over 1m6f) but will have few fitness concerns having been acclimatised in his new surroundings since the summer.
He's one of two rides Nico De Boinville has at Warwick for Henderson on Thursday afternoon and he can strike in the opener with this promising juvenile.
Innisfree Lad to win and each-way @ 8/1 - BET NOW
Innisfree Lad just about matched his best hurdles form when narrowly failing to make a winning start over fences at Taunton (2m7f, good to soft) a fortnight ago.
That Novices' Handicap Chase saw the first five home finish in a bit of a bunch but it was nonetheless a pleasing start for David Dennis' charge; who was held up in the rear and mostly jumped to good effect before challenging late on and just failing to get the verdict from Don Lami.
Being in that sort of finish won't have done any harm and an extra furlong from a 1lb higher mark looks favourable here with David Bass (23 per-cent strike rate for this trainer) taking over in the saddle.
Court Master will be strong in the betting after a winning chase bow at Musselburgh but the runner-up did little for that form back at the Borders track next time and Innisfree Lad is preferred at the prices.
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Bruins vs. Capitals NHL Pick – December 11th
It was a productive night with last night’s quartet of free NHL picks as I went 3 for 4 on the night, hit another home underdog and a pair of winners at solid -117 odds.
The first winner of the night came between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Montreal Canadiens. I had the under 6.5 here – while I was expecting a six-goal total – and the pick looked excellent with a 1-0 score for Pittsburgh halfway through the game. Three Montreal goals within the final 10 minutes of the second period put the pick in some danger, but it was never really in doubt as a Canadiens empty-netter accounted for all the third period scoring in a 4-1 Habs win at -117 odds.
At roughly the same time, the Blues and Sabres were playing a close game in Buffalo. The Sabres never trailed in the game, held a 3-2 lead late and tacked on two empty-net goal to earn a 5-2 win as notable +121 home underdogs.
Our third and final winner of the night came between the Maple Leafs and Canucks. The Maple Leafs scored the first two goals of the game, gave one up in the third, but tacked on an insurance marker and an empty-netter to earn the 4-1 win. Leafs netminder Frederik Andersen was brilliant in this one, however the Canucks also saw their puck luck slow as per yesterday’s piece. This was another winner at -117 odds.
Our lone loss of the night came between the Hurricanes and Oilers. I had the Oilers as slight home underdogs, but they fell behind 3-0 in the first. While they would actually rally to tie it at three, they didn’t deserve this one and the Hurricanes added another trip of goals to easily get by Edmonton by a 6-3 count. Oilers are struggling at the moment.
It was a beauty night and a profitable one at that as I turn my attention to tonight’s three-game NHL schedule!
Season Record: 47-40-1
Let’s take a look at this free NHL pick featuring the Bruins vs. Capitals from Boston!
Bruins vs. Capitals Betting Odds
- Bruins (+113)
- Capitals (-125)
- Bruins +1.5 (-215)
- Capitals -1.5 (+185)
- Over 6 (-113)
- Under 6 (+102)
Bruins vs. Capitals NHL Pick Breakdown
Now let’s take a look at each of these two NHL clubs before I get into my final pick!
The Bruins dropped a 5-2 affair in Ottawa on Monday – and we hit a winner there at +170 – which marked their third consecutive loss after rattling off an eight-game win streak.
I mentioned in Monday’s piece that the Bruins haven’t played well of late, even when they were winning.
They were routinely playing from behind and mounting late-game comebacks, something they have been unable to do in their last two games while being outscored 9-3 in that time.
However, they didn’t actually play too bad in Ottawa as they controlled 61.45% of the shot attempts at 5v5 and generated 54.35% of the scoring chances while outshooting the Senators 40-26 in that one.
The Bruins’ offense has been quieted of late in scoring just those three goals over the last two games and three or fewer in seven straight games. That said, they still rank second with 3.54 goals per game on the road this season where their power play ranks third with a 26.5% clip.
Although it didn’t show through on Monday, the Bruins also get a boost with the return of Patrice Bergeron between the elite duo of Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak.
While the road offense has dominated, this teams remains built on defense.
The Bruins enter this one ranked sixth with 2.69 goals against per game on the road this season while their solid 81.8% mark on the penalty kill away from home ranks 12th.
The Bruins are a decent road team in terms of the advanced numbers, but nothing special, either.
Their 49.64% corsi for percentage (CF%) at 5v5 on the road this season ranks 11th, their 49.55% scoring chances for percentage (SCF%) ranks seventh and their 46.12% high-danger chances for percentage (HDCF%) ranks 18th.
They’ve managed to score as much as they have on the road this season thanks to a 10.74% 5v5 road shooting percentage and have prevented offense thanks to a seventh-ranked .928 5v5 save percentage as well.
Getting the nod in goal tonight for the B’s will be Jaroslav Halak after Tuukka Rask wasn’t at his best Monday in Ottawa.
On the heels of a month of November where he posted a 2.12 GAA and .940 Sv% in five outings, Halak owns a 1.53 GAA and .930 Sv% across two December starts so far.
Just like the Bruins, the Capitals were upset by a 5-2 score on Monday, however their loss came on home ice at the hands of the Columbus Blue Jackets.
The loss snapped a six-game win streak for the Capitals, although they’ve now dropped two of their last four on home ice. They were -230 favorites to win that matchup on Monday.
The Capitals still managed to put 39 shots on goal in the loss, but the concerning part was allowing 37 themselves to a weak Blue Jackets offense.
The loss also ended a nice run for Braden Holtby in which he posted a .930 Sv% over a five-start stretch – the final four of which resulted in wins.
The usually potent Capitals offense hasn’t been dominating teams of late with 2.67 goals per game over their last three, but they still rank ninth with 3.53 goals per game this season home ice.
That said, the Capitals’ power play hasn’t exactly been lethal at home this season where they rank 20th with a 19.6% mark while their quality 85.7% mark on the penalty kill at home ranks 11th.
Like the Bruins, the Capitals sports some so-so advanced numbers in this matchup on home ice,
Their CF% of 51.33% at 5v5 at home ranks 17th, their 52.64% SCF% ranks 15th and their 52.52% HDCF% sits 20th. Like the Bruins, they’ve generated goals on a high shooting percentage at 5v5 with their 9.56% mark ranking sixth.
Getting the nod in goal for the home side tonight will be Holtby once again as he’ll look to battle back from allowing four goals – albeit on 37 shots – in the loss on Monday.
Holtby enters this one sporting a 2.84 GAA and .909 Sv% on the season as he continues to underwhelm on the whole during the regular season. His 2.72 GAA and .913 Sv% at home is a little better, although his 2.24 GAA and .928 Sv% from November is in the rear view mirror.
It’s a battle of the Eastern Conference titans in Washington tonight, but I like the road side to come in and deliver on their valuable odds.
It’s not often you get the Bruins as underdogs regardless of opponent, and while it’s against the east-leading Caps, I like the Bruins for a few reasons.
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One, they can score and defend with the best of em’ on the road and their road power play is lethal.
Two, they’ve already lost three in a row. I don’t like their chances of losing four in a row.
Three, the Capitals just won six in a row, but their defense regressed and their goaltender saw a hot streak snapped on Monday. This is a tough bounce back outing for Holtby, and given his entire body of work this season, I’m not confident that he can come back and stymy the Bruins in this one.
It’s going to be a wildly entertaining game, however the value here lies with the Bruins and I like them to win this one on the road tonight.