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Following a very interesting U.S. Open, we now make our way to TPC River Highlands (par 70, 6,841 yards) in Cromwell, Connecticut, for The 2018 Travelers Championship. This venue has hosted this tournament for the last 33 years and if you remember last season, Jordan Spieth won the event, in dramatic fashion, holing a bunker shot to seal his playoff win over Daniel Berger. This Pete Dye design is much shorter than last week, but one thing that will continue is that this course is a par 70, making par four scoring extremely important, once again. In fact, all of the last four winners have either led or been T1 in par four scoring at River Highlands. Even though this is a shorter track, both long and short hitters can win here. Unlike last week, your off the tee game isn’t that important, but as usual, finding the greens is, so I will be looking at approach stats, but also ball striking.

After the carnage that we saw at Shinnecock Hills, we should get back to a low scoring PGA event at The Travelers, with every single champion since 1994 cracking double digits at this course. This makes birdie or better percentage a priority when picking our golfers for this week. As for the field, we usually get a weaker field after a major, but this year is very different, with seven of the world’s top 15 players competing in Connecticut. Overall, this is a pretty strong field and I think it is a fine week to use your normal amount of bankroll, as we also get back to a standard top 70 and ties cut line. @Hunta512.

Rory Sabbatini: (7,200)

I understand this field for The Travelers is much better than years in the past, but there is still no way a player who has made 15 straight cuts should be this cheap. Sabbatini has been on this run since the start of the new year and has finished in the top 30 eight times in those 15 starts. During this stretch, he has been exceptional on par fours, ranking 9th in SG on these holes, but he is also 7th in SG on par fours that are between 400-450 yards, which is the range of eight of the 12 par fours at River Highlands. (via Fantasy National) Plus, he also ranks 20th in BOB% and 21st in SGT2G during this stretch. (via Fantasy National)

His approach game isn’t the best (136th in SG APP), but he has improved recently, gaining strokes with his approaches in five of his last six events. He doesn’t hold a great record here in Connecticut (2/6 cuts), but in all reality, Sabatini’s game is at a completely different level than years in the past. For example, he has made 80% his cuts this season, compared to only making 57% in 2017 and 40% in 2016. On top of that, he is 3/4 on par 70s this season, with an average finish of 23rd place. He should make the cut and Sabbatini has the potential to post his seventh top 25 of the season this weekend.

Keegan Bradley: (7,800)

Bradley let Shinnecock get the best of him, but I think we need to give him a pass on this, because River Highlands is a course that he has played extremely well in the past. The New England native, originally from Vermont, has taken playing near his home very serious over the years. He has never missed a cut at this venue and has made it to the weekend at the last seven Travelers Championships, including four top 30s, with his highest finish, a T8, coming just last year.

Prior to The U.S. Open, he made 13 of 17 cuts this season and was seven for his last nine. This may come as a surprise, but he has been the best approach player in 2018, ranking 1st in SG APP. Not only that, but he ranks 7th in SGT2G, 14th in GIR%, 3rd in ball striking, 79th in par four scoring, and 93rd in BOB%. He should absolutely bounce back at this track he loves and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Bradley ended up in the mix come Sunday. (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)

J.B. Holmes: (8,000)

Holmes’ game has been has been trending up, with him making three straight cuts. Following a T42 at The Byron Nelson, he posted a T13 at The Memorial and then a T3 at The St. Jude Classic. At TPC Southwind, which was the host of The St. Jude Classic and also a par 70, Holmes ranked T3 in GIR and T11 in par four scoring, while nailing 17 birdies and a tied for best in the field, two eagles. In these last three made cuts, he ranks 4th in SGT2G, 12th in SG APP, 3rd in ball striking, 21st in SG on par fours, and 21st in BOB%. (via Fantasy National)

It is a solid advantage that he didn’t play at The U.S. Open and he should fresh and ready to keep things going after his T3 in Memphis, which was his best performance of the season, thus far. With a prior champ in Russell Knox, at the same exact price (17-20% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs), Holmes should naturally come with a low ownership and is a fine play for GPPs this week. (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)

Also Consider:

Kyle Stanley: (7,700) With two MCs in his last three events, Stanley should be lower owned. (9-12% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs) In his last 24 rounds, he is still elite statistically, ranking 16th in SGT2G, 5th in SG APP, 3rd in ball striking, 7th in SG on par fours, and 41st in BOB%. (via Fantasy National) He is better for GPPs, with a hit or miss record here (4/8), but the upside will always be there for Stanley and his great ball striking. (60/1 to win, via Bovada)

Nick Watney: (7,500) Been very consistent, making it to the weekend in 12 of his last 13 starts. He is also 6/8 at The Travelers, making his last four. He is the 40th best par four scorer this year and should absolutely be low owned in GPPs. (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)

CT Pan: (7,600) A T25 and T8 in his only two starts at River Highlands. He also has now made four straight cuts and has been better in each tournament, leading up to a T18 at The St. Jude Classic two weeks ago.

Chez Reavie: (7,200) 6/7 at this course and the 9th best par four scorer on Tour this season.

Vaughn Taylor: (6,900) Has a strong history at The Travelers, making 11/13 cuts for his career and has made nine of his last 11 cuts. Lastly, he is coming off back to back top 20 finishes. For plays under $7,000, I think Taylor is one of the better bets to be playing on the weekend.

PLAY THIS LINEUP

JUST as the doubters were starting to surface, just as I was beginning to wonder myself … boom … up pops Lagostovegas with a brilliant win in the Ascot Stakes.

With 2 points each way tipped at 11-1 that sends us home with a profit for the day despite the fact that everything else I touched ran poorly, especially Lady Aurelia.  The 100-1 shot finished last of course, so that little experiment was a failure.

We go back to the well for Day 2 and once again it is top class action and I have quite a few fancies.

2.30 – Queen Mary Stakes

The cat seems to be out of the bag as far as SHADES OF BLUE is concerned but I’m fairly relaxed about that because she should really be favourite here I think.  Her win in a maiden was decent but it’s the fact that the 2nd and 3rd horses have both gone on to win races since then that really advertises her chances.  Chelsea Cloisters is the Wesley Ward horse from the U.S. and of course Ward’s record can’t be ignored but I’m concerned by the performance of Lady Aurelia on Tuesday so I can’t back this one at short odds.  Likewise the form of Servalan for Jessica Harrington is good (won a listed race in Ireland) but she maybe wants 6 furlongs and another slow start might cost her over 5 furlongs. I am also concerned by the performance of Indigo Balance, her stablemate in the Coventry Stakes who finished 2nd last. Although there are 22 runners here we can discount at least half of those as having little or no chance and I’m happy to side with Shades of Blue against the rest of the field.

3.05 – Queen’s Vase

I am struggling to differentiate between the top four in the market here and the more I look at the form the more indecisive I become.  The best thing to do in that situation is to move on and leave the race alone.  If I was pushed for a tip I would possibly go for a small each way on Drapers Guild for Joseph O’Brien at a bigger price but I can’t see him improving enough to win it.

3.40 Duke of Cambridge Stakes

This one really should go to HYDRANGEA who is the best of these by a bit of a margin.  Hydrangea is a few pounds clear of Aljazzi and despite a penalty for her Group 1 wins she should be the best here.  The rest of the field are considerably further behind.  She looks like she should be around even money to me rather than her current price of 7/4.  The notable improver is probably Urban Fox who won nicely on debut for William Haggas and he might be the one that grabs second.

4.20 – Prince of Wales’s Stakes

CRACKSMAN is miles better than the rest here and he will be better suited by the flat galloping track at Ascot than he was last time at Ascot (where he won, albeit rather unconvincingly).  His price isn’t great but I’m going to put him in a double with Hydrangea to make it a backable price.  He really should win this comfortably.

5.00 – Royal Hunt Cup

Realistically you need to find one here that is capable of being a good 7 or 8 pounds better than his handicap mark so that might be one that is improving and has a good bit left to go or one that has been better than its current handicap mark in the past.  I don’t have many that are jumping out at me this year but the one I am taking a punt on his FIRMAMENT for David O’Meara and Danny Tudhope.  He was rated 109 for most of last summer where he was fairly consistent without getting his head in front and his handicap mark eventually started to drop.  Last time out he was 2nd of the smaller group in a large handicap and I think it’s very noteworthy that Danny Tudhope has chosen to ride him ahead of Escobar who he rode to victory last time out and on paper is perhaps the more progressive type.  I think there is a big race to come from Firmament and I’m hoping it comes today.

5.35 – Jersey Stakes

I have a cheeky outside fancy here that I think should be a much shorter price.  JAMES GARFIELD gets to run over 7 furlongs today which I think is his optimal trip, the ground is no problem and although he carries a penalty for his Group 2 win he has that for a reason – namely that he won a good race.  On ratings he is one of the better ones here and with Silvestre De Sousa on board he looks the value bet in a competitive race.

Recommended Bets

• 2.30 – Shades of Blue – 3 point win (9-2, Ladbrokes, Coral, ***)
• 3.05 – No bet
• 3.40 & 4.20 – Hydrangea and Cracksman – 4pt double (100-30, ***)
• 5.00 – Firmament – 2pt each way (16-1, Paddy Power – paying 6 places)
• 5.30 – James Garfield – 2pt each way (16-1, William Hill, Coral – both paying 4 places)

• Live on TV?: ITV

RUSSIA look certs to top Group A and that will mean a last-16 meeting with Spain or Portugal.

Group B sees Spain take on Iran and Portugal face Morocco and hopes are high for two entertaining matches after the heavyweights fought out a 3-3 thriller last week.

Wednesday’s other match sees Uruguay tackle a Saudi Arabia side who have looked the worst on show in Russia.

The first round of games went the bookies’ way but now results should go more with form.

If you take wins for Portugal and Spain and add Uruguay to sink Saudi Arabia the treble pays a tempting 7-5 at Marathonbet.

Spain and Portugal produced the game of the tournament and both should win their final two Group B games to qualify.

Portugal v Morocco (1pm)

Portugal are first up today against Morocco who looked powderpuff as they crashed 1-0 to Iran.

They played well in the thriller against Spain and should pick up the points at a best 3-5 with McBookie.

All eyes will be on hat-trick hero Cristiano Ronaldo who is 13-5 at *** to score first and evens with Unibet to net.

There were two more penalties awarded in Tuesday’s games and Ronaldo won one in the opener. A spot-kick to be awarded pays 15-8 at *** while Portugal are 6-1 to score one.

Best Bet

• Ronaldo to score

Iran v Spain (7pm)

Spain are no bigger than 1-6 but since they netted three against Portugal they could do so against Iran and are 7-5 with Marathonbet to score 3+.

Diego Costa was their two-goal hero in their opener and he is 4-5 with William Hill to score and 3-1 at *** to break the deadlock.

I like the second half to be highest scoring at evens with William Hill as Iran are likely to tire.

For this game a penalty to be awarded is 11-5 at Paddy Power and Spain scoring from the spot pays 7-2 at ***.

Best Bet

• 2nd half highest scoring

Uruguay v Saudi Arabia (4pm)

Uruguay face a Saudi side who looked out of place on the world stage after a 5-0 runaround by Russia.

The South Americans were pedestrian against Egypt but the likes of Edinson Cavani and Luis Suarez will love facing such a ponderous defence.

Take Uruguay -2 at 7-5 with McBookie and back Cavani and Suarez to score with the double paying evens at William Hill.

Best Bet

• Uruguay -2

Brazil v Costa Rica Betting Preview – World Cup 2018 22nd June – 1.00 p.m

Brazil failed to impress in their opening draw against Switzerland. They just couldn’t get their fluency and attacking flair going, but it is likely that they will get better and better as the tournament goes on now that those first game nerves are out of the way. This is a much easier game for them as they take on Costa Rica who suffered a 1-0 loss against Serbia in their opening fixture. Our Brazil v Costa Rica predictions are fully siding with a comfortable win for the South Americans happening.

Brazil News and Form

Brazil couldn’t find top gear in their opener against Switzerland as they struggled for their fluency against their opponents. It was just one of those games probably and Brazil will see many better days than that. It wasn’t a great performance from their star man Neymar really as he wasn’t clicking with the team, trying too hard to too much individual stuff in the 1-11 draw. Neymar is the joint 13/5 first goalscorer favourite at **** (Betting Odds were taken from June 19th, 2018 at 7:54 p.m.) alongside Manchester city’s Gabriel Jesus. It was a stunner from Philippe Coutinho which gave Brazil their goal. That draw against the Swiss snapped a four-match winning streak that they were on ahead of the tournament and they had scored at least two goals in three of those four victories. So there should be goals for them against this weaker opposition and they are likely to come out of this with a clean sheet as well. The Selecao to win to nil is solid Brazil v Costa Rica prediction at 8/13 odds with **** (Betting Odds were taken from June 19th, 2018 at 7:54 p.m.).

Brazil have been in fine defensive form and the second half goal they shipped against the Swiss is their only goal against them in their last six games. So they have been rock solid at the back and regardless of how many they get on the board, they should be able to blank their opponents. Brazil have won all but two of their last dozen World Cup group stage matches so it would be a shock if they didn’t fail to get one in this fixture. In the *** correct score market, you have a Brazil 2-0 option as the shortest-priced option at 5/1 while if you want to push things further than you have the 3-0 option at 6/1 odds* (Betting Odds were taken from June 19th, 2018 at 7:54 p.m.). It is also unlikely that Brazil will play as flat as they did in their opener too. It’s hard to imagine anything other than a win for the South Americans will be showing up in this game.

Costa Rica News and Form

Costa Rica are not carrying any form and look very little threat to the Selecao. They have lost four of their last five games played and are now on a three-match losing streak after their 1-0 loss against Serbia in their opener. It’s hard to see them posing any major threat in his fixture at all and this will likely be the point at which they are eliminated from the tournament. Costa Rica have scored in just two of their last five games now and it’s hard to see them getting enough quality ball in the final third of the pitch to do any kind of damage. An obvious Both Teams Not To Score option is at 4/9 odds* (Betting Odds were taken from June 19th, 2018 at 7:54 p.m.) which may be something to throw into a World Cup accumulator. While they didn’t lose by a big margin against Serbia the Central Americans didn’t raise much of a threat and after two shots on target in the first three minutes, they did not manage their third until deep into stoppage time.

Brazil v Costa Rica Head to Head

There is a fair bit of history between these two and most of it is in Brazil’s favour. The head to head stands at 9-1 in Brazil’s favour with no drawn matches from the ten previous clashes. The most recent was a friendly back in 2015 which Brazil won 1-0. The last two meetings have ended in a 1-0 scoreline for Brazil. The Brazilians have three clean sheets in their last five against Costa Rica.

Brazil v Costa Rica Betting Odds*

Brazil 1/5
Draw 6/1
Costa Rica 18/1
* (Betting Odds were taken from *** on June 19th, 2018 at 7:54 p.m.)

Brazil v Costa Rica Predictions

Brazil are likely to find the going a lot easier in this one than they did against a well-drilled Switzerland. There should be more space for them to get up and running with their first win at the tournament and there is going to be a comfortable prediction in Brazil v Costa Rica in backing the South Americans to win to nil.

Argentina v Croatia Betting Preview – World Cup 2018 21st June – 7.00 p.m

Argentina are now going to be severely tested. They came up short in their opener against Iceland as they had to settle for a draw and what we saw from the Albiceleste in qualification, was evident in that game. They just lack a serious threat going forward and there are clear vulnerabilities in their defence. Croatia have the chance to go out and rough them up a bit and three points for the Europeans would put them through to the next round of the competition. That’s a huge incentive and our Argentina v Croatia predictions can see value in backing the Europeans.

Argentina News and Form

Argentina are going to feel the pressure of needing to win this fixture. They could only manage that 1-1 draw against Iceland in their opener and against such a well organised defence, Argentina looked to have run out of ideas quickly in how to break them down. They were very static and had no injection of pace unless it was Lionel Messi picking the ball up deep. Messi missed a chance to open his account for the tournament from the penalty spot. Now they have to try and lift themselves for another tough challenge as Croatia will have no problems challenging them. This was always going to be a tight group and now Argentina have a little bit of work to do. Under 2.5 goals for the game is at 13/20 odds with **** (Betting Odds were taken from June 18th, 2018 at 6:54 p.m.) as the Albiceleste don’t look like running riot in front of goal and this should be a really closely fought contest.

Lionel Messi didn’t really get much space in which to work against Iceland but the Barcelona man is the 10/3 first goalscorer favourite* (Betting Odds were taken from *** on June 18th, 2018 at 6:54 p.m.) for this one. It was Sergio Aguero who got their opener, netting his first ever World Cup goal for his country, but he was barely in the game besides that. Argentina are W2 D2 L1 in their last five games so they aren’t quite on top of their game and one of those two wins happened against Haiti. The two wins in that run of games were both with a clean sheet though, so if they concede they have been prone to not winning games. Croatia will pose a threat and both teams to score in this one is at 19/20 odds* (Betting Odds were taken from *** on June 18th, 2018 at 6:54 p.m.). They just don’t quite look organised, or if they know just what their best side or their best set up is.

Croatia News and Form

Croatia opened their World Cup account with a 2-0 victory over Nigeria and that was a good start in a tricky fixture. They got their three points and that is three victories that they have collected in their last four games. Croatia will pose a different challenge to Argentina because they will get the ball in the middle of the park whereas Iceland just sat back. That is an area where Croatia will be able to compete strongly. Croatia have scoring threats, notably through Mario Mandzukic who is an 11/4 anytime goalscorer option with Andrej Kramaric at 10/3 odds with **** (Betting Odds were taken from June 18th, 2018 at 6:54 p.m.). Given that Croatia have a bit of a cushion of those three points, a draw in this one wouldn’t be a bad result for them as it would leave them in a good position and a couple of points clear of Argentina. A win for them though will leave them primed to win the group. A Croatia/Draw Double Chance is great value at 4/5 odds* (Betting Odds were taken from *** on June 18th, 2018 at 6:54 p.m.).

Argentina v Croatia Head to Head

This will be the fourth meeting between Argentina and Croatia and the South Americans hold a W2 L1 lead. Their first ever clash was a World Cup fixture when they met in 1998, which is their only previous competitive meeting. Argentina collected a 1-0 win on that occasion. The other two meetings were both settled by a one-goal margin as well.

Argentina v Croatia Betting Odds*

Argentina evens
Draw 12/5
Croatia 10/3
* (Betting Odds were taken from *** on June 18th, 2018 at 6:54 p.m.)

Argentina v Croatia Predictions

Argentina, despite all of their talent, looked flat in that opener against Iceland and lacked pace, movement and confidence. Croatia came through a tricky opener successfully and they are going to be value in Argentina v Croatia predictions in backing for a Croatia/Draw Double Chance. They have the chance to make a big statement here.

Well. What a start to the World Cup, although betting has been very tough!

Some of our ante posts went down the drain immediately, with Germany and Brazil among numerous of the big boys failing to win and a couple of shocks with Japan and Iran winning.

In our first acca – Uruguay messed it up from the start, only scoring one when they should have had at least 2-3…while Colombia lost after a 3rd minute red card, Brazil failed to score 2 goals and France laboured to a 2-1 win – not enough for the -1 handicap.

Only Belgium + Over 2.5 Goals and Croatia Win obliged, so for this one I’m going with just a 4-Fold but it pays 45/1:

Uruguay vs Saudi Arabia: Uruguay -2 Goal Handicap @ 13/10 (Wednesday, 1600 KO)

Portugal vs Morocco: BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 2/1 (Wednesday, 1300 KO)

South Korea vs Mexico: Mexico -1 Goal Handicap @ 8/5 (Saturday, 1600 KO)

Argentina vs Croatia: BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 8/5 (Thursday, 1900 KO)

Real potential here. I think Uruguay have got their bad game out of their system…Suarez looked awful, but Cavani was terrific. They got better as the game wore on, and with the Saudi’s conceding 5 to an average Russia side, this could be ugly.

Portugal-Morocco is also one I feel there could be goals galore. Morocco need something from this game in order to qualify, and with Portugal conceding 3 in the first game (as well as scoring 3) I feel it could be a great game.

Mexico played terrifically against Germany, and against a Korea side that looked dreadful against Sweden – I think they could rack up a few and win well.

Lastly, Argentina vs Croatia. Argentina are under serious pressure to win this otherwise they could find themselves on the verge of being out. Croatia have a cracking squad, and with a win under their belt this is the opportunity to win the group…and avoid a potential tie with France, who should win Group C.

It was a tough night for Angels’ right-hander Jaime Barria which meant bad things for my MLB pick.

Barria has been real consistent for the Angels as last night’s game marked just the second time in nine starts that he yielded more than two earned runs. Barria was tagged for six earned runs on six hits including two home runs in just four innings of work.

The Angels’ bullpen held the D-backs mostly in check from there on out, but the damage had already been done and the road team took a 7-4 victory to kick off their two-game set.

Tonight we will head to Pittsburgh where the Pirates will play host to the Milwaukee Brewers in the second game of a three-game set.

The Pirates blanked the Brewers in a low scoring affair last night by a 1-0 count with Jordy Mercer’s RBI double accounting for all of the scoring in that one.

The win moved the Pirates back to the .500 mark at 36-36 and six games behind the first place Cubs and Brewers in the NL Central.

With the loss, the Brewers fell to a strong 42-30 mark, although they have now dropped three straight.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Freddy Peralta (3.72 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 1.24 WHIP) vs. Jameson Taillon (3.94 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 1.20 WHIP)

22 year-old right-hander Freddy Peralta will make his third big league start in Pittsburgh tonight and we’ve seen him at both ends of the spectrum across his first two.

In his MLB debut in Colorado on May 13th, Peralta was brilliant with 5.2 innings of scoreless ball to go along with a whopping 13 strikeouts.

In his next start six days later, Peralta pitched just four innings and surrendered four earned runs and walked six.

Peralta has a nice 2.75 ERA at the Triple-A level this season, but the control issues are nothing new. He has posted a walk rate above 11% at each minor league stop over the last two seasons. He relies on the strikeouts to get out of some jams, but the problem against the Pirates is that they don’t’ strike out much. Pittsburgh’s 18.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching is the third lowest mark in the majors. They don’t walk a ton at just 8.1% (21st), but they handle the bat well and that could very well take the bread and butter of Peralta’s game out of his hands.

Despite last night’s one-run output, the Pirates’ offense has been among the hottest in the big leagues as of late with their .344 team wOBA ranking fourth in the big leagues over the last seven days. Their strikeout rate over that same stretch is just 17.4%.

Getting the ball for Clint Hurdle’s Pirates tonight is the right-hander Taillon who is enjoying a solid season. He has been blown up for six or more runs twice this season, but has otherwise been very good.

He’s been especially good against right-handed hitters, yielding just a .547 OPS to them. With left-handed hitter Travis Shaw questionable for tonight’s game after missing last night’s contest with a wrist injury, Taillon could face as many as six right-handed hitters in the Brewers’ lineup tonight.

Taillon ramps up the strikeouts at his home ball park as he sports a nice 26.8% strikeout clip at home while his road k-rate sits at a poor 17.5%. Taillon also cuts his walk rate down by almost three percent at home to 5.1% compared to 7.8% away from PNC Park. Milwaukee can be a free-swinging offense at times as their 24.7% strikeout clip against righties is the eighth highest mark in the league.

In his lone start against the Brewers this season, Taillon threw five innings of one-run ball in a no decision in Milwaukee on May 5th.

The Pirates’ bats are hot and they are facing a pitcher with some control issues. Given their low-strikeout ways and ability to handle the bat, it’s likely they force Peralta to throw strikes and get to him when he does. Taillon is consistent and I think he’s able to handle a slumping Brewers team tonight. Take the Pirates and run.

The Bet: Pirates (-115)

PLACE YOUR BET

There was nothing wrong with our pitching in last night’s DraftKings MLB DFS Picks, but we didn’t exactly extract enough value from our low-cost bats.

Gerrit Cole has certainly cooled down as he yielded four earned, all within the first three innings, in his start against the Rays, however he still went seven innings and struck out eight. Unfortunately, the Astros’ offense rallied late after Cole was out of the game and therefore he ended up with a no decision despite going deep into the ball game.

Trevor Bauer was once again dominant, tossing seven frames himself, however Bauer’s seven innings were of the scoreless variety. Bauer struck out eight as well, but he landed in the win column thanks to his offense backing him with six runs off, five of which came off of White Sox starter Dylan Covey.

We received some decent production from our Giants three-man stack, however the Royals didn’t give us much and Chris Young didn’t start thanks to Kole Calhoun coming off the disabled list.

We have a jam-packed 15-game slate on our hands tonight so let’s go ahead and do some damage!

Weather Concerns:

LAD @ CHC

NYM @ COL

P – Mike Clevinger (CLE) – $10,800 vs. CWS

There are a couple of elite arms on the slate in the form of Justin Verlander and Chris Sale, however I am going to roll the dice and pay down for a couple pitchers who I believe can deliver on their big upside tonight. Clevinger isn’t cheap either, but I believe his upside can rival Verlander’s. Clevinger faces the same White Sox club that he posted 11 strikeouts against across seven innings of one-run ball in his last start. He brings a shiny 3.15 ERA and 3.36 FIP into action tonight and while his 21.9% strikeout clip isn’t super high, he should trend towards the 27.3% mark he posted last year during this start.

P – Vince Velasquez (PHI) – $8,600 vs. STL

Velasquez is a riskier option in terms of blowup possibility like we saw with 10 earned runs against the Brewers two starts ago. That said, he has allowed two or fewer earned runs in five of his last six starts and he brings very high strikeout upside into action with his 28.3% strikeout clip. Velasquez sports a 4.74 ERA on the season, but both his FIP and xFIP sit at 3.54, meaning he’s been pretty unlucky this season as well. He took a no-hitter into the seventh inning in his last start to boot. Velasquez has elite strikeout upside and I am looking for him to keep rolling against a Cardinals team that ranks 20th with a .298 wOBA over the last seven days.

C – Yan Gomes (CLE) – $3,600 vs. CWS

There is one stack I am paying up for tonight, but in terms of the Indians I am going with value upside in this three-man group. Cleveland faces left-hander Carlos Rodon tonight who sports a 6.89 FIP through two starts this season. Rodon has also given up three homers in his 10 innings this season so I am going to pick on him with some low-cost Indians who clubber lefties. Gomes is having a big season against southpaws with a .327 average, .255 ISO and .985 OPS on the season. He’s homered three times over his last eight games so let’s look for more power tonight.

1B – Matt Adams (WAS) – $3,900 vs. BAL

The Nationals are the stack I am paying up for tonight, but make sure Adams is in the lineup prior to lock as he’s been on the bench nursing a finger injury over the last few days. If he starts, he’s an excellent option as Orioles’ right-hander David Hess is yielding a .948 OPS to left-handed hitters and is due for more negative regression with a FIP more than two runs higher than his ERA. Adams is having a nice year with a massive .331 ISO and .978 OPS against right-handed pitching and a .419 ISO and 1.142 OPS against right-handed pitching at home where he will be tonight.

2B – Daniel Murphy (WAS) – $4,300 vs. BAL

Murphy has only played in six games this year thanks to a knee injury, so there aren’t many numbers to speak of yet, however his matchup with Hess clearly a favorable one. Murphy hit .332 with a .231 ISO and .960 OPS against right-handed pitching in 2017 and has hit 48 home runs over the last two seasons. He is projected to hit in the five-hole tonight which should afford him some RBI chances that he may not need an extra-base hit to capitalize on.

3B – Erik Gonzalez (CLE) – $3,300 vs. CWS

Gonzalez is going to see some real low ownership tonight but I’m excited about his matchup against the lefty Rodon. Gonzalez has posted a .222 ISO and .863 OPS across 27 at-bats against southpaws this season for the Tribe, a big jump over his previous numbers against left-handed pitching. While it’s nice to have a track record, his lack of previous power will keep Gonzalez’s ownership very low, especially on a full slate. He could provide sneaky upside tonight.

SS – Miguel Rojas (MIA) – $2,600 vs. SF

A shortstop couldn’t financially fit with my stacks, so I am forced to go with a very cheap player at this position and I think Rojas is the best of a thin bunch at this price. Rojas takes on Giants’ left-hander Dereck Rodriguez tonight, a pitcher who is yielding a .300 average to right-handed hitters. Rojas doesn’t hit for a ton of power with an overall .115 ISO on the year, however he has clubbed seven homers and stolen three bases. If he runs into one tonight, it would go a long way for this lineup at what should be minuscule ownership.

OF – Bryce Harper (WAS) – $5,500 vs. BAL

Harper isn’t going very well right now, but his home run upside is always quite large. He paces the National League with 19 homers on the season and thus sports a big .286 ISO versus right-handed pitching while his .847 OPS against righties is nothing to scoff at either. I would like Harper to be hot when rostering him, but how bad Hess has been against left-handed bats it is a prime matchup for Harper to get going in.

OF – Juan Soto (WAS) – $4,500 vs. BAL

The 19-year-old Soto is a great story as he’s been flexing some big-time muscle since his call up last month. Soto has a huge .602 overall slugging percentage on the campaign, but interestingly he is hitting lefties for a ton of power despite hitting from the left side. Regardless, against the righty Hess, Soto has huge upside as he sports an .831 OPS against righties and had a .988 OPS against righties at Double-A prior to being called up. I have high hopes for the rookie again tonight.

OF – Brandon Guyer (CLE) – $2,800 vs. CWS

Guyer is back to his lefty-mashing ways in 2018 after a down 2017 campaign. He’s hitting southpaws for a big .255 ISO and .840 on the season after just a .108 ISO and .691 OPS in 2017. There is no hiding Guyer has been atrocious this season against right-handed pitching by going 1 for 34, which means he could leave the game for a pinch hitter when the bullpen comes in. That said, at this price I don’t mind using Guyer to attack Rodon as he’s been hitting lefties for notable power as evidenced by the aforementioned power figures.

PLAY THIS LINEUP

In the immortal words of Crash Davis, “this is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball. You hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains.” And yesterday it rained in Chicago. We had our money on the Dodgers and Kenta Maeda as they were in Chicago to face the Cubs and Tyler Chatwood. But alas, that fantastic midwestern weather rained the game out, and we were refunded our money. We will use those refunded funds today as we look at the game between the Atlanta Braves and the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Atlanta Braves head to Toronto Tuesday for a quick two-game set with the Blue Jays. The Braves are heating back up after stumbling a bit to start the month of June. With this recent five wins in six games stretch, the Braves have extended their lead in the National League East Division to three and a half games, and they now have the best record in the National League.  The Blue Jays have played some solid baseball as well recently as they have won seven out of their last ten games.

Starting tonight for the Braves is rookie Mike Soroka (2-1 2.57 ERA), and for the Blue Jays, it is Jaime Garcia (2-5 5.71 ERA). The Braves are small -112 road favorites. The game total over-under is set at nine runs. First pitch is scheduled for 4:07 PM PST from the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario.

The Atlanta Braves are continuing to prove the haters wrong as they keep on winning games. Every time they lose a couple of games the critics are quick to say this team is too young and inexperienced and that they are going to have to come back to earth at some point. And yet here they are, with the best record in the National League and finding ways to win games every day. I feel like there is likely some truth to the hate as it is very unlikely that Atlanta will continue to win at this high of a rate all season long, especially without rookie sensation Ronald Acuna Jr in the lineup.

Acuna Jr. sprained his left knee running out an infield single and has been out since May 27th. Not having his bat in the lineup certainly hurt the Braves as they have struggled somewhat without him in the lineup. But he is rehabbing now and is expected to start a minor league rehab stint very shortly and hopes to be back with the team in a couple weeks. In the meantime, this Braves starting pitching has picked up the slack in a big way, and they are winning games.

Starting tonight for Atlanta is Mike Soroka. Soroka is one of the highest ranked prospects in all of baseball and has had a solid start to his big-league career. Soroka spent some time on the disabled list early this year, but in his last start, his first since returning from the DL, he impressed. Soroka actually had a no-hitter going through six innings in his last start against the New York Mets. So, I think any concerns about him coming off the DL and being rusty were quickly put to bed. In four career starts, the recent first-round draft pick is 2-1 with a 2.57 ERA. Another “Baby” Brave getting the job done on the big-league level.

The Blue Jays will turn to Jaime Garcia tonight in game one. Garcia has had a very mediocre start to his season. After winning his first two decisions, he has now lost his last five decisions, and the Blue Jays have lost four out of his last five starts. Not only has Garcia been very average at best, he can’t get deep into games. He has failed to make it out of the sixth inning in nine of his twelve starts this season.  In three of those starts, he couldn’t make it out of the fourth inning. It will be interesting to see if Garcia can survive tonight against this Braves team that is fourth in the majors in runs scored.

While the Blue Jays have played decent ball recently, don’t let that small run fool you. This is a bad team. The Jays are five games under .500 and a whopping fifteen games behind the New York Yankees for the AL East Division lead. It is only a matter of time before they start tearing this team apart. There are trade rumors swirling around many of the Blue Jays best players, including Josh Donaldson and JA Happ. If the Blue Jays want to save some of their best players, they need to win and win now. And I just don’t think they have the talent to get the job done right now.

This game clearly leans towards the Braves for me. They have the better starter on the mound, they have the better lineup on the field, and they are the better overall team. I guess the fact that they are on the road has kept this line manageable for Atlanta? But when you look at Atlanta’s record, they are five games over .500 on the road. The Blue Jays? They are just 19-19 in Toronto. So, playing up north doesn’t scare me off of taking the clearly better side in this one. Give me the Atlanta Braves tonight in game one at -112!

The Bet: Atlanta Braves -112

PLACE YOUR BET

HYDRANGEA (3.40) looks the right favourite for the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes, with four-year-olds having won this Group 2 contest nine times in a row.

The Ballydoyle filly chased home very smart stablemates Winter and Roly Poly in the Coronation Stakes last year and although slightly disappointing when beaten by Opal Tiara at the Curragh last month, Hydrangea remains the one to beat. French challengers have won the last two renewals (Qemah and Usherette) but there are no Gallic challengers to complicate matters this year.

Aidan O’Brien saddles three in the Queen’s Vase and NELSON (3.05) may emerge best of the trio.

He was below par behind Hazapour in the Derby Trial at Leopardstown but had earlier dished out a beating to stablemate Delano Roosevelt and The Pentagon on much softer ground. Nelson also beat Kew Gardens three lengths as a juvenile and his neck second to Roaring Lion in the Royal Lodge Stakes at Newmarket last September sets the bar pretty high.

Of the home contingent, John Gosden’s Stream Of Stars mopped up his maiden here last month on fast ground and remains unexposed.

It’s hard to weigh-up CHELSEA CLOISTERS (2.30) in the Queen Mary Stakes as Wesley ward’s filly won on the dirt at Keeneland on her sole start. This is an entirely different test but the trainer excels with these types at the royal meeting. She wears blinkers for the first time in public and Frankie Dettori rides.

EMARAATY (5.35) is 10lb better off for his short head defeat at the hands of Society Power at Goodwood and should be prominent in the Jersey Stakes. Purser and James Garfield were also on the shortlist.

The draw always plays a significant part in the Royal Hunt Cup and ZHUI FENG (5.00) got lucky last year when winning from stall 26, with the next two horses berthed 22 and 18. Big fields and fast ground on a straight course bring out the best in Zhui Feng as he loves to bowl along at the head of affairs.

The five-year-old is up 8lb this time round but proved his well-being with another excellent effort back at Ascot last month, running Ripp Orf to a neck in the Victoria Cup on his first start in 281 days. Stall two is an unknown but there will be worse each-way bets, especially with many firms offering up to six places.

Last year’s Britannia Stakes winner Bless Him flopped in the mud at Nottingham at the end of May but could well bounce back on this quick ground.

CRACKSMAN (4.20) should land the odds in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes. He will be far happier back at Ascot following a laboured performance at Epsom on sticky ground.

Recommended bets

• Ascot 3.40 – Hydrangea (7-4, ***)
• Ascot 3.05 – Nelson (5-1, Ladbrokes)
• Ascot 5.35 – Emaraaty (11-2, McBookie, Paddy Power, Betfred)
• Ascot 4.20 – Cracksman (4-6, Paddy Power)
• Ascot 5.00 – Zhui Feng ew (22-1, McBookie, Ladbrokes, Coral, Paddy Power)
• Ascot 5.00 – Bless Him ew (18-1, Ladbrokes)
• Ascot 2.30 – Chelsea Cloisters (5-2, Coral)

VIVE LA DIFFERENCE (4.35), a previous Hamilton winner from subsequent scorers Rockwood and Jacob Black, remains well enough handicapped for me to believe he can score again in the mile handicap.

Tim Easterby could hardly have his string in better order and Vive La Difference arrives here on the back of a fine effort at Beverley when just denied by El Principe. Fourth horse Waarif is 3lb better off but Vive La Difference can confirm placings.

Mark Johnston won this event last year with classy Titi Makfi and relies on another three-year-old, Austin Powers. The gelding’s third to Lord Vetinari at Goodwood reads well, while Moltoir looked an improved horse for the fitting of a visor when winning at Beverley 11 days ago and should again master runner-up Global Exceed.

With trailblazer Amy Blair in the line-up there should be plenty of pace, with Vive La Difference poised to pounce late.

There are some serial losers in the 1m 1f handicap but MY BROTHER MIKE (5.10) poked his head in front at Newcastle last September, so he at least knows how to win.

Kevin Frost sends the four-year-old north on the back of an eye-catching sixth to Berlusca in a better race at Haydock 12 days ago. My Brother Mike hit the front over a furlong out before tying up and will appreciate this shorter distance. A visor is fitted for the first time. John Caesar has the ability to take a hand if on a going day.

GLOBAL ART (3.55) is another southern raider holding excellent prospects. Ed Dunlop equips him with blinkers after his third to Claire Underwood and Ad Libitum at Ripon and that form looks good on the back of Ad Libitum’s subsequent exploits.

Mystical Mac was my selection when just run out of it at Carlisle and a 5lb rise for that defeat is a bit hard to take. Cheek-pieces are on today. Bowler Hat ran quite well at Nottingham and is the other one to consider.

SNOWDON (3.20) won with such authority at Yarmouth that an 8lb rise is unlikely to prevent a repeat performance if the ground remains slick. She fairly bounded clear on her handicap debut and may have too much firepower for Scottish duo Party Fears Too and Song Of Summer. Jim Goldie’s Party Fears Too takes a drop in class and this longer trip may eke out some improvement. Dontgiveuponbob has proved a bit disappointing for Richard Fahey but is no forlorn hope.

Far-travelled COMPETITION (5.45) represents Dr Richard Newland, with Jane Elliott coming for this one ride in the apprentices’ handicap. The six-year-old lost out on the nod to Sexy Secret at Yarmouth last week and gets the verdict over Royal Cosmic.

Recommended bets

• Hamilton 4.35 – Vive La Difference (5-1, ***)
• Hamilton 3.20 – Snowdon (7-4, ***)
• Hamilton 3.55 – Global Art ew (13-2, ***)
• Hamilton 5.10 – My Brother Mike ew (12-1, ***)
• Hamilton 5.45 – Competition (9-4, ***)