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What Value Bets are and how to find them
A common term in betting is ‘Value Bets’ and what it is, is basically trusting your own interpretations of say a football match, over that of the bookmakers. Value Bets are when you look at the odds placed on a team by a bookmaker and you think, well that teams has been pretty undervalued by the bookie on their chances of winning.
Basically, Value Bets is a tale of mathematical advantage. You can define a Value Bet as a wager where the probability of the outcome is greater than what the odds being offered by a bookmaker reflect.
Of course, bookmakers have armies of traders pricing up markets, all trying their best not to get things wrong. But things can fall through the cracks and with a bit of mathematical know-how, you can learn how to spot those Value Bets.
As a punter, you have probably seen an underdog in a football match win out at a big price and you have sat there in and had one of two thoughts:
Either A: Whoever would have bet on that?
Or B: That looked a pretty reasonable outcome in hindsight.
The answer to A is probably someone who had been looking at Value Bets on the game and who had done a bit of homework.
How To Calculate Value Bets
A working knowledge of the probability worked into odds is going to be needed for this one. If you need a quick refresher on how to calculate probability from odds then have a read of the next section first.
Convert Odds to Probability
Decimal Odds Conversion to Probability
The formula is 1/(given odds) then multiply by 100
So 1/1.7 = 0.5885 multiplied by 100 * = 58.8%
Fractional Odds Conversion to Percentage
Example 6/4 odds – the first number is numerator, the second number is the denominator
The formula you need for converting Fractional odds is Denominator divided by (Denominator + Numerator) multiplied by 100
So it would be 4 / (6+4) = 0.40
0.20 * 100 = 40%
Back to Calculating Value Bets
So now you know how to convert odds to probability let’s piece it together. We are just going to look at an example of an underdog/favourite situation in a tennis match. We are using a tennis match because it simply has two outcomes instead of three on football matches.
Player A 1.67, Player B 2.1
If you convert those odds to probability you will have Player A at 59.8% with Player B at 47.6% of winning according to the bookmaker. To keep things simple, these two players appear to be in similar form for the season and the head to head record between them is even, but this match is being played on a surface that Player B is better on. So just simply by looking at the probability of the odds, you may think Player B has a better chance of winning than the 47.6% chance that the implied odds have them at.
This is where you create your Value Bet. Because let’s say you estimate this is more of a 50/50 situation. A 50% chance is 2.0 odds so in this instance with the bookmaker offering 2.1 on Player B, then in your estimation they are undervaluing his chance by having him at bigger odds than what you would expect to see. It makes the bet more appealing.
You are basically challenging the bookmaker’s expectations of the outcome of the match. Simply by looking at the probability of odds, you can do that.
Where you come in
As you can probably tell, Value Bets is all player-oriented. This is all about you and your knowledge and what you perceive the outcome of the sporting event is going to be. A sage piece of knowledge which may help is that bookmakers won’t always be right with their estimations in odds. That’s not feasible, they get it wrong sometimes.
Where you can come in is by reversing all of this, by playing the bookmaker and estimating your own odds and this is best done before looking at any actual prices. Let’s say there is a football match coming up between Spain and Scotland. You have three outcomes, a win for Spain, a draw or a win for Portugal.
Spain are in hot form, they are a much higher ranked team than Scotland and as they are playing at home, you would estimate there’s a 55% chance that the game will be won by Spain. You could allow 20% for a chance of Scotland digging in for a draw, and maybe only leave a 25% chance of Scotland coming away with a victory.
So now you have studied form and set your own probability on the game. Now you can work out the odds that you would expect to see on the match based on your probabilities. Remember Value Bets are all about your estimations and projections.
You need a simple formula to move probability into odds:
100/probability = fair odds
Fair odds is basically what ever odds that you come up with based on your probability. That is a fair price which you would expect to see a team at. Now the challenge is finding the odds at a bookmaker which are better than your fair odds. Let’s look at our Spain v Scotland game. A 25% chance of a win for Scotland is 4.0 odds, while the draw is at 5.0 and Spain would have fair odds of 1.82 to get a win based on the chance of winning that you have given them.
Now go and look at an actual bookmaker odds. Is one of them offering, for example, 1.91 odds on Spain to win (52.4% chance) then according to what you are expecting, that would be a value bet. This would work the same on an underdog if you found a bookmaker offering a 20% chance on a win for Scotland at 5.0 odds. You can take what you perceive to be extra value in backing Scotland to take a win, challenging what the bookmakers have produced as chances
The 100 Method
This is something important about Value Bets. Let’s say in the example above you fancied Spain to beat Scotland. That you estimate they have a 55% chance of beating Scotland. Ask yourself this question.
What if the game was repeated 100 times?
It implies that Spain would win 55 of those 100 matches.
You would stake £10 each time.
If Spain won a match at 1.82 you would earn £8.20 off each victory.
£8.20 x 55 wins tallies up to £451 in total profit
However, you lost 45 of your stakes at £10 each
That’s £10 x 45 = £450 of stakes lost
It breaks down as having staked £1000 in total, and having returned £1001
To further stress how this 100 Method can help you figure out value in options, let’s look at a stronger favourite in a football match, which you deem to have a 70% chance of winning and each stake is again £10. A bookmaker offers 1.3 odds on it (a 70% chance fair odds is 1.42 so any bookmaker who was offering more than that would be a Value Bet).
For each win at 1.3, you would get £3 back
70 wins x £3 = £210 profit
However, you have lost 30 stakes at £10 each = £300
In total, you have staked £1000
Returned (including stake) £910
So if this match was played out 100 times at those odds and the percentages were on the nose, then you would be out of pocket £90 which basically translates and poor risk/return. This method just helps you take a look at the bigger picture in terms of the overall value and risk on a wager.
Value Bet Summary
Value Bets are popular but they are all about your estimations. You may have given a team a 70% chance of winning, while the person standing next to you only gives them a 60% chance and the bookmaker could be somewhere in the middle of all that. It is all personal subjective probabilities that you are working off for Value Bets. They will take a bit of work, some calculations, but trusting your own judgement can be a powerful thing.
Members’ Bet of the Day: Bully Wee won’t be bullied out of a goal
Ace’s Golf Tips: No Harm in backing Harman
IT’S good to see Bubba Watson getting his game back together and progressing to the knockout stages of the Dell Tech Match Play.
His group comprised Marc Leishman, Branden Grace and Julian Suri so it was no mean feat to make it through with two wins and a draw.
He bulldozed past Grace in Austin, Texas on day one with six birdies on the front nine then defeated Aussie ace Leish 3&2 before a halve against Suri was enough to book his last-16 slot.
Bubba bagged 18 birdies in his three rounds and is looking like his old self. However, he now faces his toughest test against brilliant left-hander Brian Harman who blew away Rory McIlroy 5&3 yesterday.
Harman halved with Jonny Vegas then beat Peter Uihlein 3&2 in what was a really tough section.
He doesn’t hit a long ball but faced three of the biggest hitters in the game and matched up to them brilliantly.
Bubba’s another huge hitter but I’m backing Harman to take him down in the first game out.
My 30-1 outright tip Patrick Reed is now second favourite at 11-1 behind Justin Thomas. He faces Alex Noren in what could be the tie of the round while other top matches are Matt Kuchar v Kevin Kisner and Tyrell Hatton v Cameron Smith. Thomas meets Si Woo Kim.
Kiradech Aphribarnrat is one of my favourite players and he faces Charles Howell who won all his group games.
- Harman to bt Watson (12.30pm)
- (11-10, Betway)
England v Italy Predictions & Betting Odds – International Friendly 27th March 2018
England v Italy Betting Preview – International Friendly 27th March
England head back to Wembley on Tuesday after a successful trip to Amsterdam on Friday night. A positive, yet experimental England side actually played well and took down the Dutch 1-0. They will get another good run out and another chance for Gareth Southgate to take a look at his squad as they host Italy. The Italians are in transition having failed to make it to the World Cup.
England v Italy Betting Tips
Gareth Southgate seems to have a clear idea of where he wants to take England and the players seem to be getting it. He put out an experimental side against the Netherlands on Friday night and came away with a 1-0 win thanks to a strike by Jesse Lingard. They do still lack a genuine creative player in the middle of the park, but they pressured high and looked to play the ball quickly. Next up for them is Italy as the Three Lions work their way towards the World Cup. England are unbeaten in seven games now (W5 D2) since losing to France in a friendly last summer. A big concern for them at the World Cup could be where the goals are going to come from if Harry Kane is not fit. Still keeping on the positives, England have not conceded in any of their last five games now and England to win to nil at *** is at 5/2 odds* (Betting Odds taken at 9:22 p.m. on March 23rd, 2018).
2015 was the last time that these two met, in what was a friendly in Italy. Andros Townsend equalised for England in the second half of the game in a 1-1 draw. That followed England’s demise at the 2014 World Cup against the Italians. In the last five meetings, Italy are W1 D1 L1 against England and three of the last four meetings have produced a 2-1 scoreline, two wins for Italy, one for England.
Italy took on Argentina on Friday night at the Etihad Stadium on Friday night and lost 2-0. Lionel Messi didn’t get any action in the game and the South Americans struck their goals in the second half of the game. After failing to get through their World Cup qualification play-off against Sweden, Italy are a bit lost at the moment. They are under caretaker head coach Luigi Di Biagio as they try as sort out how to go forward. They aren’t in great form with just a W1 D2 L2 record in their last five games, the only success there being against Albania. The Italians are lacking an edge up front and haven’t managed more than one goal in a game in any of their last seven games and actually, in that sequence of matches have returned just the three goals in total. In the *** correct score market an England 1-0 has a decent amount of appeal at 6/1 odds* (Betting Odds taken at 9:22 p.m. on March 23rd, 2018).
England v Italy Betting Odds*
England 6/5, Italy 9/4, Draw 23/10* (Betting Odds taken at 9:22 p.m. on March 23rd, 2018)
England v Italy Predictions
Positive signs from England against Holland means that there is a chance for them to carry that forward and take a home win over the Italians here. Italy are always going to present a challenge, but they aren’t great at the moment and this is a great test of England’s ability to break down a good defensive side. Home win.
Lightning vs. Devils NHL Pick – March 24th
The Tampa Bay Lightning keep on rolling with the playoffs in their sights. There is no denying that the Lightning are favourites to go to the Stanley Cup Final. They are going to be a popular pick to reach the finals and for good reason. However, everything goes out the window when the playoffs start. Records don’t matter at that point, it’s just the first team to win four games in a seven-game series.
The Lightning most certainly look like a team poised to be able to win a few series. Nevertheless, they face some stiff competition and it’s going to be wide open. If the playoffs were to begin today, the Lightning would be playing the New Jersey Devils, as the first overall seed in the Eastern Conference. I don’t think the Lightning would have any issues getting by the Devils, but it isn’t like anyone thought the Devils would be a playoff team. What about the Golden Knights and Jets? Expect the unexpected in the NHL.
We might have a preview of the first-round tonight, with the Lightning and Devils meeting in New Jersey. If the Lightning take them lightly, that’s going to be the opening the Devils need in the playoffs. Of course, this is if the Devils reach the playoffs and draw the Lightning in the first-round. They’re currently 3 points up on the final wild card and 4 points behind the Flyers for the second wild card, so there is a bit of a gap there. Head below for our free Lightning vs. Devils pick on Saturday night.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. N.J. Devils Pick
The Devils have some underrated talent on their roster, but they do not match-up against the Lightning from a talent perspective. In other words, it’s going to take more for them to upend Tampa. There isn’t a player on the Devils who can contain Kucherov or Stamkos. Playing any of the top four teams in the conference is not going to be an easy task. Who do you want, the Penguins, Capitals, Bruins, or Lightning?
There isn’t an easy way to navigate any of those teams. The Lightning are averaging 3.58 goals per game to exceed any team in the NHL. In their last ten games they’ve scored 4.1 goals per game, but have allowed an anemic 3.9 goals per game. If there is going to be any way to beat the Lightning, it’s going to come down to catching fire on offence. The Bolts are 12th in the league with 2.82 goals allowed per. They’re coming off a wild 7-6 win over the Islanders. They’ve put up 7 goals in two of their last ten games, including three 5 goal games.
The Devils must improve on the defensive end tenfold from their last three outings. They allowed 6 goals to the Sharks, 4 to the Ducks, and 3 against the Penguins. However, they did pick up a nice 4-3 win over the Pens last night. The Devils have allowed at least 3 goals in eight of their last ten games. They were okay offensively with over 3 goals per game. I expect the Lightning offence to shine tonight after the Devils dealt with the Pens last night. In any event, we should get plenty of goals in this game to push it OVER the total.
PICK: OVER 6 (-110)
Scottish Football – Ayr Without Caution, Says Mr Fixit
THE Daily Record’s Mr Fixit (@mrfixittps) casts his eye over the weekend’s Scottish football fixtures…
Ayr v Queen’s Park | Saturday 24th March 2018, 15:00
In League One table-toppers Ayr have stretched their lead over Raith to six points and should have no problem at home to basement boys Queen’s Park.
They are just 2/5 at Marathonbet so raise the odds by taking Ayr and over 2.5 match goals at 19/20 with Betway.
All bar one of Ayr’s 15 home games this season have gone over 2.5 and Queen’s recent matches have also seen plenty of goals.
Airdrie v Raith | Saturday 24th March 2018, 15:00
Airdrie’s last four have seen both teams score over 2.5 goals and it should be five in a row today at 11/10 with Skybet.
Six of Raith’s last seven have landed the bet and Airdrie’s decent home form should lead to goals.
Albion Rovers v Alloa | Saturday 24th March 2018, 15:00
Ayr v Queen’s Park – Ayr To Win & Over 2.5 Goals (19/20 Betway)
Airdrie v Raith – Over 2.5 Goals (11/10 Skybet)
Albion Rovers v Alloa – Both Teams To Score (4/6 ***)
English Football Tips: Would you Adams and believe it
TWO seasons ago there were fans holding betting slips stating Leicester 5000-1 to be Premier League champions – this term the fans we’re jealous of people backed Plymouth to be promoted at 2500-1.
Derek Adams’s side spent the first few weeks in the League One drop zone but some optimists could see a bright light at the end of the tunnel.
Ex-Ross County boss Adams’s jacket was on a shoogily peg but now he’s nailed down to stay.
I’ve tipped Plymouth regularly over the past couple of months and they’re still overpriced as they travel to Charlton.
They have won seven and drawn one of their last eight to climb into the play-off places but are as big as 9-4 at Ladbrokes.
Last week they came back from 2-1 down to beat Bristol Rovers and have suffered just one defeat in 17.
At the odds they can be backed less riskily draw no bet at 6-4 with Paddy Power.
Charlton have won just one in five and have just lost boss Karl Robinson to Oxford Lee Bowyer and Johnnie Jackson will take charge and there is the possibility they’ll have a positive effect but Charlton shouldn’t be favourites at 13-10 with William Hill.
Plymouth will probably finish fifth while at the top the race for the title is between Blackburn and Wigan.
Due to their FA Cup heroics Wigan have two games in hand on the other two and should win at Bury today. They are a best 8-11 to make it three wins in a row against the basement boys.
Shrewsbury have won four in five and with Blackburn not playing should move top with a win at home to Wimbledon. The Shrews are 19-20 with ***.
Other sides at consider are Gillingham at off-form Bradford. The Gills are 3-1 with *** against a side who have lost three in a row without scoring.
The race for the League Two play-offs is hotting up with Coventry holding on to the final spot. They’ve won three and drawn two since losing to Brighton in the FA Cup and are 5-6 at McBookie to beat Grimsby at home.
Luton have been pushed off the top by Accrington after no wins in five but should get back on track against crisis-hit Barnet who appointed Mark Allen for a fifth time last week and binned Mark McGhee as head of technical.
Basement boys Barnet have drawn and beaten the Hatters this season but I’m on the home at 4-7 with McBookie.
Wycombe are up third after back-to-back away wins and look a decent price at 17-20 to beat fifth-bottom Port Vale at home.
- Plymouth draw no bet
National League – Goals To Fly In At Dagenham
NON-LEAGUE expert Paul Maddison (@LouthBigDog) shares his favourite fancies from a Saturday card of National League action.
Aldershot v Boreham Wood | Saturday 24th March 2018, 15:00
The Shots have dropped off the pace a bit in recent weeks and are now down to 6th in the league, a point and 3 places behind their opponents here. The only win in their last 6 games has come against a Hartlepool side who are hovering dangerously above the relegation places. Only two weeks ago Aldershot lost 6-1 to Fylde who played for 30 minutes with just 10 men, although the damage had been done by that time.
I don’t think many would have predicted the season Boreham Wood are having. They are finding form at the right time too as they mount a serious challenge for league football. The Essex side are unbeaten in 8, winning 5 of those games and conceding just 3 times. Only Sutton have picked up more points over the last 10 league games. Their away form is very impressive also. Their only loss in their last 17 away games against League 2 Coventry.
I’m going to be slightly cautious with my bet here and back Boreham Wood in the ‘draw no bet’ market at 69/50 with Marathonbet.
Dagenham & Redbridge v AFC Fylde | Saturday 24th March 2018, 15:00
This game is screaming goals to me. The Daggers have seen 13 of their 19 home games in league go over 2.5 with the average being 3.4 goals per game over that period. 5 of their last 6 home games have even gone over 3.5 goals.
No team in the league have scored more than Fylde, they have scored 9 more than any other team yet at the same time only one team in the top half of the table have conceded more goals than them, and that’s their opponents here. Over the 38 games they have played so far this season they have seen an average of 3.2 goals per game. In recent weeks they have been involved in 18 goals in their last 3 games.
Over 2.5 goals is available at 4/5 with ***.
Torquay v Guiseley | Saturday 24th March 2018, 15:00
I’m going for goals on the south coast too. Not because I feel these two are capable of great attacking displays, but due too them both being so poor defensively. They have the 2 worst defensive record in the league and both look certain for relegation. The Gulls have conceded 17 goals in their last 6 home games, with 4 of those games seeing them concede 3 or more goals.
Guiseley have really struggled defensively away from home this season, in 19 games they’ve conceded 47 goals, nearly 2.5 goals per game. They have managed to score in most of their away games though, especially against teams who have been struggling. The last time a team from the bottom half of the table kept a clean sheet against them was back in September.
Both teams to score is my bet here at 17/20 with Marathonbet.
Aldershot v Boreham Wood– Boreham Wood Draw No Bet (69/50 Marathonbet)
Dagenham & Redbridge v AFC Fylde – Over 2.5 Goals (4/5 ***)
Torquay v Guiseley – Both Teams To Score (17/20 Marathonbet)
Scottish Football Tips: Luggy out to save panicky United
A COUPLE of weeks ago I suggested Dundee United were in danger of missing the play-offs – and today they could slide to sixth in the Championship.
Csaba Laszlo’s side looked to have turned the corner with victory at Queen of the South but since have drawn at home to Inverness then lost to Queens at Tannadice in midweek.
The Tangerines remain in third but defeat at home to Dunfermline today will see them slip to sixth if Morton and Queens win.
United have three games in hand but would prefer points in the bag as confidence is low after one win in six.
Laszlo has acted by bringing in former Rangers defender Bilel Mohsni and experienced ex-boss Paul Sturrock and it could be interpreted as hitting the panic button.
The Pars have lost one in six but three of them were 0-0 draws and have lost six in a row at Tannadice.
That’s the stat that puts me off backing Allan Johnston’s side at a best 5-2 with McBookie while United are 23-20 favourites.
Ex-Rangers striker Nicky Clark hit a hat-trick in the midweek win at Brechin and to score again is 11-5 at McBookie.
Fourth-place Morton have a “gimme” at home to a Brechin side who have lost all 13 away games. Morton are just 4-11 at William Hill but consider them -1 at evens with Coral against a side that’s lost by two or more in four of their last seven and by 4-1 at Cappielow in December.
Queens have a tougher test at home to second-placed Livingston. It’s honours even this season with one win, one draw and one defeat each and it could be another stalemate at 12-5 with Marathonbet.
The Championship games will be into the second half when the supposed showpiece Irn-Bru Cup Final between Inverness and Dumbarton kicks off.
Why this match starts at 4.15pm is anyone’s guess – surely 5pm or 5.30pm would have been better and allow it full attention.
Inverness are favourites at evens with Marathonbet to win in 90 minutes and 4-9 at McBookie to lift the trophy –and it should be tight in Perth.
Both sides have a win apiece from two meetings this seasonand while Dumbarton go into the Final boosted by back-to-back wins against Brechin their general form has been poor. The Sons are 16-5 at Marathonbet to win and 13-8 with McBookie on the outrights.
ICT look more experienced and ready to handle the occasion and I’m taking them to win with both teams scoring at 3-1 with ***.
In League One Ayr have stretched their lead over Raith to six points and should have no problem at home to basement boys Queen’s Park.
They are just 2-5 at Marathonbet so raise the odds by taking Ayr and over 2.5 match goals at 19-20 with Betway.
Airdrie’s last four have seen both score and we could get a fifth when Raith visit. This pays 4-5 at ***.
Stats also suggest goals at Albion Rovers v Alloa. Rovers’ last four and Alloa’s previous five have brought up this market and today it pays 4-6 at ***.
Game of the day in League Two sees form team Clyde tackle leaders Montrose. Danny Lennon’s side have lost just two in 10 and are making a late push for the play-offs.
They’ll fancy their chances here but best bet could be Clyde to score 2+ at 6-4 with Unibet. Also consider on-fire David Goodwillie to net at 23-20 with McBookie.
Peterhead have won three and drawn one against Annan this season and should add another victory at 9-20 with McBookie as they stay on the heels of Montrose.
- Dundee Utd v Dunfermline btts
- Morton -1
- Ayr & over 2.5 goals
- Airdrie v Raith btts
- Clyde to score 2+
- Goodwillie to score
Alan Thomson’s Tips: Lacemaker looks a money maker
WOLVERHAMPTON has been a happy hunting ground for Sylvestre De Sousa and he returned from warmer climes in Dubai to ride a double at the Midlands track in midweek.
Significantly, he kicks on to Wolverhampton’s evening fixture from Doncaster this afternoon and THE LACEMAKER (8.45) could be worth the wait at the end of a long day’s punting.
Formerly trained by Ed Dunlop, The Lacemaker has had two runs for new handler Chris Dwyer, a trainer who provides a steady stream of winners for SDS on the all-weather. The filly has finished fourth on both occasions, the most recent coming three weeks ago when beaten more than three lengths by Desert Fox.
That came in a Class 5 sprint, so this demotion to Class 6 company is very welcome, especially since the handicapper has dropped her 3lb. The application of first-time cheek-pieces suggests the yard means business.
The media spotlight falls on Doncaster and LORD GLITTERS (3.35) may well possess the necessary class to defy top weight in the 32Red Lincoln Handicap.
David O’Meara gave his gelding the green light on Thursday after swithering whether to risk Lord Glitters on very soft ground so early in his campaign. Drying winds should ensure the track isn’t riding too testing and if Lord Glitters can reproduce the blistering turn of pace he used to scythe down a whole posse of rivals in the valuable Balmoral Handicap at Ascot in October he will surely be in the mix.
His second to Accidental Agent in a Heritage Handicap at Ascot in August was a sterling effort and he ended the season with another second, this time in a Listed contest at Newmarket in November. Lord Glitters, a dual winner in France at a mile, clearly goes well on a straight track and his low draw may well prove advantageous.
O’Meara also saddles last year’s winner Bravery at the bottom of the weights but more potent threats to Lord Glitters are posed by well-touted Fire Brigade, shock Cambridgeshire winner Dolphin Vista, Chelsea Lad and Addeybb.
LANCELOT DU LAC (1.50) can win the first race of the new Flat turf season, the Unibet Cammidge Trophy over six furlongs.
Last year’s Stewards’ Cup hero will be fit as a flea on the back of a recent success at Wolverhampton and his Goodwood win came on soft ground. Lancelot Du Lac runs Donny well, having been placed twice in Listed company on heavy ground.
The jumps card at Newbury looks trappy but if all eight runners go to post for the juvenile hurdle NIGH OR NEVER (2.40) is worth an each-way punt at around 10-1.
Rebecca Curtis has kept the four-year-old off the course since he lost out to Royale Zanzibar in a driving finish at Hereford in mid-January and the winner ran a sound race in defeat under a big weight behind Eragon De Chanay at Sandown a fortnight ago.
- Wolverhampton 8.45 – The Lacemaker (100-30, McBookie, ***)
- Doncaster 3.35 – Lord Glitters ew (6-1, general)
- Doncaster 1.50 – Lancelot De Luc (3-1, general)
- Newbury 2.40 – Nigh Or Never ew (14-1, William Hill)
Johnb’s Saturday Tips
- Newbury 2:40 – Falcon Sun 5-1
- Thurles 2:45 – Castlegrace Paddy 13-2 eachway 1/4 odds 1-2
- Bangor 2:50 – Dragon Khan 8-1 eachway 1/4 odds 1-2-3 NB
- Lingfield 3:10 – Wahash 5-1
- Doncaster 3:35 – Dark Red 22-1 eachway 1/5 odds 1-2-3-4-5-6
- Lingfield 3:45 – A Momentofmadness 9-4 NAP
Mr Fixit’s Top Tips: Go easy on a less than super Saturday
INTERNATIONALS – don’t you just hate them. The weekend’s card is curtailed due to the friendlies so keep stakes low.
There are no top-flight or English Championship matches and it’s a day where I break even I’ll be satisfied.
I’ll post separate English and Scottish previews where most of my bets are reasoned. Haven’t touched the friendlies on Saturday although to be fair most of the big games were on Friday night.
Two parts of my treble came in but Scotland not scoring beat it. Alex McLeish’s side huffed and puffed and rarely tested Keylor Navas.
My golf bet hasn’t finished yet and I’ll look to add a Super Single after I see the result.
Well done to all the winners on Friday and there were plenty including Greg and Jordan. And good luck on Saturday.
Remember to visit our friends at WeLoveBetting for latest tips and video chat.
1.5pts Super Single
- Finua to bt Noren (6.10pm)
- (6-4, 188Bet)
2pts Top Treble
- Plymouth not to lose
- Morton -1
- Ayr & over 1.5 match goals
- (37-10, Black Type)
*1pt Moneyback Fivefold
- (10-1, McBookie)
*Stake back as free bet for 1 one wrong
1pt Scottish Both to Score
- Dundee United v Pars
- Albion Rovers v Alloa
- Clyde v Montrose
- (9-2, Unibet)
1pt English Both to Score
- Peterborough v Bristol Rovers
- Carlisle v Cambridge
- Forest Green v Mansfield
- (9-2, William Hill)
March Super Singles Total: +1.5pts
March Advised Accas Total: +9.8pts
This month’s football partner at MrFixitsTips is BetBright. They’ve a great welcome offer where you can claim up to £50 to play with when you deposit £10 upon opening a new account. 18+. T&Cs apply. New customers only.
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Nuggets vs Wizards – NBA Pick for March 23rd
Denver Nuggets (39-33) at Washington Wizards (40-31)
We took a bad beat last night when we backed the Los Angeles Lakers on the road against the New Orleans Pelicans. The Lakers led the entire second half and were leading 125-124 with less than two minutes left in the game. We were getting three points, and it looked like the Lakers were going to win this one outright. The last couple of minutes didn’t go our way, and when Anthony Davis hit both of his free throws with just five seconds left on the clock, we lost our cover. We still managed to earn a push out of the game, as it ended 128-125, but this felt like it should have been a winner. What can you do, we have picked close to 90% winners over the last three weeks, so I guess if our bad beats are still pushes and not losers, then we are still running pretty good. Tonight, we will head to the nation’s capital as the Washington Wizards host the Denver Nuggets.
The Denver Nuggets head to Washington D.C. Friday night to face the Wizards in a game both teams badly want to win. The Nuggets struggles on the road have been well documented, and they are in the midst of a brutal road trip that has seen them drop from the seven seed in the Western Conference to the nine seed. Denver must figure out a way to win on the road if they want to sneak into the playoffs this year. The Wizards have also been sliding down the standings as they have fallen from as high as the three seed in the Eastern Conference to now residing in the six slot. The Wizards are -1.5-point home favorites. The game total over-under is set at 218.5 points. Tipoff is scheduled for 4:00 PM PST from Capital One Arena.
If you read my daily picks a lot, you know exactly how I feel about the Denver Nuggets on the road this year. If you don’t read my picks, I can get you caught up. They stink. This Nugget’s team is amongst the worst road teams in the NBA. And are by far the worst road team with a winning record this year. The fact that they have been able to win at such a high rate at home has skewed the public into thinking this is a good overall team. It isn’t.
The Nuggets just don’t win on the road. Even against bad teams. Before they started this brutal stretch of scheduling that included eight out of nine straight games on the road, they were looked at as a potential playoff team in a very good western Conference. By some weird quirk in the schedule, the Nuggets had played the most home games of any team in the NBA. The lopsided schedule resulted in the Nuggets having a record that was inflated by the fact that they are a great home team. The schedule has come back to bite them during this stretch.
During this recent run of games, the Nuggets have played road games against really bad teams like the Dallas Mavericks, the Los Angeles Lakers, and the Memphis Grizzlies and have lost to them all. They also lost to a decent Miami Heat team and managed to somehow beat a putrid Chicago Bulls team on the road in their last game. This Nuggets team will have to get its act together in a big way tonight if they want to beat a decent Wizards team.
The Washington Wizards played very well without superstar John wall for several weeks. So much so that some media outlets were convinced this might be a better team without Wall on the court. Well, that was complete nonsense, and the Wizards are clearly feeling Wall not being able to play over the last couple of weeks. The Wizards are struggling, and they are awaiting the return of Wall any day now. That return keeps getting bumped back though, and at this point, the Wizards would be content just getting him back for the playoffs.
Look, I am not betting on the Wizards tonight. They are banged up and not playing all that well right now. I am very clearly betting against the Denver Nuggets. Not only are they a terrible road team, but they will also be without their leading scorer, Gary Harris. Getting the opportunity to bet against a bad team, that will be without its best player, playing against a good team at home, and I only have to lay a point and a half? This feels like free money, and I have a suspicion the hot streak will continue tonight. Give me the Washington Wizards -1.5-points tonight on their home floor!
The Bet: Washington Wizards -1.5 points
Scottish First Scorer Tips & Contest: Win up to £20
McBOOKIE.COM are the only online bookie listing first-scorer tips for all SPFL games and once again we’ve teamed up with the Scots firm to look at some of the best bets from the lower leagues.
And if you leave your choice of first scorer as a comment at the end of this article or email your selection to [email protected] you will have a chance to win a £20 free bet with McBookie.com.
One person with a correct prediction will be picked at random to scoop a £10 free bet. But if you have backed your player with at least a fiver at McBookie.com your prize will be doubled. Last week’s winner was Adam Banks of Irvine who backed Killie’s Kris Boyd at 8-1. Email [email protected] to claim your prize.
Here is McBookie.com’s Damian Walker with his Saturday selections.
Damian writes: “No Premiership action this weekend owing to the internationals but I really like the look of Dunfermline away to Dundee United in the Championship.
“The Tangerines have been in freefall in the league and have registered just one win from their last seven matches and kept just one clean sheet in the Championship this year.
“Yet most bookies have them around 23-20 to take all three points at home to Dunfermline.
“The Pars haven’t been in great overall form themselves but at least have won two of their last three games so there is no way they should be as big as 5-2 outsiders.
“One of those wins came in midweek away to whipping boys Brechin and striker Nicky Clark bagged all three goals in a 3-0 win.
“Clark’s career had looked to be set on a higher path than Championship football when he joined Rangers in the summer of 2013 following an astonishing season with Queen of the South.
“However, things didn’t work out and after a brief move to Bury he returned to Scottish football and seems to have found the scoring knack once again. Clark is 6-1 with McBookie to score the opening goal.
“Dropping down into League Two and for the first time this season we have a new favourite for the title after Peterhead’s defeat to Montrose last weekend.
“The result puts Montrose three points ahead with a game in hand and plenty of pre-season antepost accas will be in the bin if the Blue Toon can’t turn it around.
“Just three wins from their last nine games suggests Peterhead probably won’t and there is no reason why they should be as short as 4-11 to beat Annan this weekend.
“It is only four weeks since the Galabankies were six minutes away from beating Peterhead until they conceded a late equaliser.
“And Annan’s form since then has been respectable with a defeat of Stenhousemuir, a draw with in-form Clyde and losing by a single goal to Montrose.
“Odds of 13-2 look far too generous and all the pressure will be on the home side, who probably need to win every game now to secure the title.
“Annan striker Blair Henderson has been in good scoring form of late with six goals from his last nine games.
“And because Peterhead are such a short price Henderson can be backed at double-figure odds to score the first goal. McBookie make him 10-1 to open the scoring.
“Finally, I am not sure whether Elgin have a load of bus sickies in their squad, but whenever they leave Borough Briggs for an away match the result is usually a defeat.
“In fact they have lost 10 of their 14 games on the road in League Two this season – a poorer record than the bottom two clubs Cowdenbeath and Berwick Rangers.
“And they provided Cowdenbeath with just their third win of the season last weekend when crashing 3-1 away.
“At home it has been a different matter as the Black and Whites have the same record as league leaders Montrose with nine wins, three draws and three losses.
“However, that went for a burton in midweek as Stirling Albion ran out 2-0 winners at Borough Briggs. A trip Stenhousemuir awaits and I think it will be another away defeat.
“Stenny’s Mark McGuigan has 19 league goals to his name this season, yet sits only joint third in the top scorer chart in a really competitive campaign. McGuigan is 18-5 with McBookie to be the game’s first scorer.
“Can you find a winner!”
- Clark (Dunfermline) 6-1
- Henderson (Annan) 10-1
- McGuigan (Stenny) 18-5
Jordan’s US Sports Tips: Curry and Co too hot for Atlanta
OUT for tea tonight gents so putting faith in this without much line movement.
Curry back for the Warriors so shouldn’t see any problems at home to Atlanta.
Double them up with Portland at home to the Celtics who have been playing well without their stars but this one will be tough.
- Trail Blazers ML (2am)
- Warriors -3.5 (2.30am)
- (4-5, bet– 5 points
DraftKings NBA Picks – March 23rd
What’s up everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for March 23rd, 2018. Tonight, we get a full slate with ten games on tap. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
If you want help with NBA research for FanDuel and DraftKings check out the best fantasy tools out there at FantasyLabs.com
C: Karl-Anthony Towns: (9,800) The Wolves are the seven seed in The West right now, but are only two games ahead of nine seeded Nuggets. They need every single win and Towns will continue to see very heavy playing time for the foreseeable future. He has played an average of 38.6 MPG in his last six starts and tonight he heads to New York to take on The Knicks who are currently a very nice matchup for starting centers. (3.68 opponent +/-) This is going to be his second and final meeting vs The Knicks this season, and in the first game, Towns dominated them for 58.3 DK points.
This game has the second highest O/U game total of the slate at 226 points and has a decent spread of 7.5 points in favor of The Wolves. Towns should see 35-40 minutes in this contest and score 50+ DK points with him having a current Vegas props score of 50 fantasy points. I don’t usually like targeting Towns on the road, but every game is crucial for them right now and he have a big night vs this weak Knicks’ front court.
SF/PF: Jabari Parker: (5,400) On Wednesday night, after Giannis Antekounmpo went down with an ankle injury, Parker started the second half and had his most productive game of the season, scoring 20 points, six rebounds, three assists, two steals, and a block in a season high 30 minutes vs The Clippers. (36.5 DK points) The Greek Freak has already been ruled out for tonight and Parker should draw the start in the All-Star’s place. It’s unclear exactly what Parker’s limitations are right now, but with this being an island game and The Bucks still needing to win games as the eight seed in The East, Parker should play close to 30 minutes as a starter on Friday night.
Even playing with the starting five, Parker still saw a high 26.7% usage rate in Wednesday’s loss. In the 206 minutes he has played without Giannis this season, Parker is averaging 1.11 DK PPM, which is a notable 0.2 increase from his average for the season. Combine the higher rates with a projection of 30 minutes and Parker should be able to score 30+ DK points again vs this Bulls’ team that is beat up and in full on tank mode right now, rating as the 5th worst defense in their last three games. (2.55 opponent +/-) I think he is a viable target in all formats, that could possibly get a little overlooked. (9-12% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
C: Rudy Gobert: (7,800) I know Gobert didn’t shine like we wanted him to last night, but the $500 price cut he has seen is just way too large for him right now. This is the first time he has been priced under $8,000 in four games and at this price of $7,800 he needs to score 39 DK points to reach five times value, which is something he has accomplished in eight of his last 11 games. His matchup tonight could obviously be better, as The Spurs are one of the better defensive units in The NBA, but if they are weak anywhere it is up front vs opposing big men. (2.82 opponent +/-)
They also tend to always have a natural big men out there playing center and Gobert should continue to log the high 36 MPG he has seen in his last four starts. It was odd to see him not post a double double last night and he should get right back on track tonight in that department with him having an O/U of 15.8 points and an O/U of 12.6 points via his Vegas props from Betonline.com. These props are giving him a very healthy fantasy projection of 43.2 points, which would be an excellent 5.5 value return at this new discounted price. He should approach 40 DK points in this game and I think he is a very smart and safe target with every game being very important for this Jazz team. (eight seed in The West, only two games ahead of The Nuggets)
SF/PF: Kevin Looney: (4,100) After starting PF Draymond Green (pelvis) exited Monday’s game vs The Spurs, Looney stepped up off the bench, scoring 30 DK points in 22 minutes of action vs The Spurs. This was the fourth game in a row that Looney has produced and he is averaging 26.5 DK PPG and 23 MPG during this span. Tonight, PG Steph Curry (ankle) will return, but The Dubs will still be without SG Klay Thompson (hand), SF Kevin Durant (ribs), and now Green who has officially been ruled out for this home tilt vs The Hawks. He most likely won’t start, but I think Looney is the big that has the best night for this Warriors front court with Green out. Jordan Bell has really been struggling since returning and even though he may end up being the starter over Looney, I think it’s Looney who sees the more playing time.
With Green out of this rotation, Looney should have to play roughly 25 minutes in this gorgeous spot vs The Hawks who are a high current opponent +/- of 4.42 points. He has been scoring 1.11 DK PPM in these last four games and with a bit higher playing time in this great matchup, Looney should exceed five times value once again. Since this is the last game of the night to tip off (10:30 PM EST), we more than likely won’t have an official starting lineup for The Warriors before roster lock, but starter or not, I think Looney is the value to attack in this front court right now, that could really surprise and have a bigger night if he started over Bell.
Also Consider: Khris Middleton (been terrific even with The Greek playing, averaging 45.9 DK PPG in his last two games. His usage should grow even more tonight with Giannis sitting and in all the minutes he has played without Giannis, Malcom Brogdon, and Greg Monroe, but with Parker on the floor, Middleton is seeing a 2.5% usage increase. He is priced correctly, but the upside is great vs this beat up Bulls team), Eric Bledsoe (I prefer Parker and Middleton, but Bledsoe also has nice upside with The Greek out. In this situation with all these players off and Parker on the floor, Bledsoe is scoring 40.13 DK points per 36 minutes), Justin Holiday (viable punt with Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine, Paul Zipser, and now Antonio Blakeny all out. I can’t guarantee high minutes, but at this price, Holiday should get five times value), Jamal Crawford (has stepped up his scoring and is averaging 27.1 DK PPG and 29.9 MPG in his last two games. His usage is up to 22.75% and he is in play at only $4,000 vs this Knicks defense), Donovan Mitchell (simply too cheap at $7,000. The Spurs are a strong defense, but he is averaging 40.4 DK PPG in his last four and scored 48.3 DK points in his lone meeting vs The Spurs this season), Nick Young (Curry is back, which will hurt his usage, but he will still start at SG and should play very high minutes. He has a decent prop score at 23.35 fantasy points), Joe Ingles (quietly this man is playing tremendous basketball. He flirts with a triple double on a nightly basis and is averaging 36.8 DK PPG in his last nine. As I said above with Gobert, every game is important right now for The Jazz and his price has dropped $400 to reflect this matchup vs The Spurs. I think he is in play in all formats and is a rather sneaky play, as most people don’t ever want to play Ingles), Trey Burke (viable GPP target as this Wolves defense has been really bad as the third worst rated defense in their last three games), Terry Rozier (tough matchup, but slightly underpriced right now. He is averaging 36.7 DK PPG in all the games he has started without Irving and Smart), Marcus Morris ($200 price drop and is averaging 27.9 DK PPG in his last three games), C.J. McCollum (too cheap right now and has a Vegas implied fantasy score of 32.35 points), Cameron Payne (hard to trust the minutes right now, but he will start at PG with Dunn and LaVine out. He is averaging 27.75 DK PPG in last three as the starter), Al-Farouq Aminu (been awesome scoring 38.3 DK PPG in these past four), Mike Muscala (decent play if Collins is out again. Under performed last night, but scored 20+ DK points in the prior two games), Dennis Schroder (what a disaster it was with being ruled out for rest hours after lock last night. It ruined many of my lineups, but if he is active he should be on your radar. He is averaging 39.2 DK PPG in his last four, scored 47.8 DK points vs The Warriors in their first matchup of the season, and has a decent Vegas prop score of 33.15 fantasy points), and Trey Lyles/Mason Plumlee (If Paul Milsap was out, whoever started would be a very viable punt play considering how cheap both of them are. Lyles averaged 25 DK PPG and Plumlee scored 21.87 DK PPG in all the games Milsap has missed this year)