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HullShaker’s Tips: Fylde this one under loser
HOT to trot in Iceland with yesterday’s Nap and NB but Guarani gutted the Paraguyan Night Owl with a rare blank in Asuncion.
Two selections for today – one hailing from The Urvalsdeild and the other much closer to home in the FA Trophy Final.
STJARNAN v KA (6pm)
I’m surprised the hosts are priced up at 4-6 to grab the points here, they are by far the superior side to KA who have conceded 1-3-0-3 goals in their opening 4 matches.
H2Hs are rarely big scorers but I have high hopes for Stjarnan who are looking good this campaign and I reckon they have enough to grab at least two goals.
- STJARNAN OVER 1.5 TEAM GOALS
- (4-6, ***) NAP
FYLDE v LEYTON ORIENT (4.15pm)
It was heartbreak for Lancashire Coast outfit Fylde last weekend as they crashed out of their Wembley play-off final to Salford and as much as I’d like them to reverse that outcome I can’t see it being easy against Orient.
By far the best two National League sides throughout the season but overall Orient have edged out Fylde and that was borne out in the two H2Hs with The Os scoring 2 and 3 team goals.
If Fylde are to score then their main threat will be Danny Rowe but at 7-5, I think there’s more value in an Orient brace at a similar price.
- LEYTON ORIENT OVER 1.5 TEAM GOALS
- (5-4, ***) NB
The big post-season matches for your football betting
Even though the regular league season has been put in the bag, there is still some top action to come in the post-season. The top titles in the land have been swept up and most of the squads up and down the country will be heading off to their summer breaks soon, if they haven’t already done so.
But don’t worry because there is still some huge games to come for the rest of the month. Then it’s only a short break until the Women’s World Cup begins in June. There is plenty of football betting to keep you entertain and here are the key dates.
Newport v Tranmere
League Two Play-Off Final
May 25th, 2019
3.00 pm kick off
Newport will be facing off against Tranmere at Wembley in the League Two Final on Saturday. Newport finished seventh in the league at the end of the season but managed to find a way past the much fancied Mansfield in their semi-final tie. It took a penalty shootout for the Welsh club to complete the deal, but they got it done nonetheless. Newport are heading to Wembley as the 2/1 underdogs against Tranmere* (betting odds taken from *** on May 17th, 2019 at 9:57 pm).
Rovers finished one place and just two points above Newport in the final league standings. They had a great scrap against Forest Green in their semi-final. Tranmere took a 1-0 home win at Prenton Park in the first leg, and then dug out a 1-1 tie away in the second leg. They were helped out by Forest Green picking up a red card in both legs. This will be just the fifth game between the two clubs. Newport are W1 D3 from the previous four. There have been just three goals scored in those four previous meetings. Tranmere go as 6/4 favourites for the match win* (betting odds taken from *** on May 17th, 2019 at 9:57 pm).
Charlton v Sunderland
League One Play-Off Final
May 26th, 2019
3.00 pm kick off
Sunderland had a tough semi-final tie to deal with as they were up against Portsmouth, who finished three points above them in fourth place. But Sunderland made the most of home advantage in the first leg, picking up a 1-0 win. That was the only goal of the tie as the Black Cats, who have been powerful in defence all season, dug in at Fratton Park for a 0-0 draw. So that sets them up with the chance to return to the second tier. Sunderland are 10/11 to gain promotion* (betting odds taken from *** on May 17th, 2019 at 9:57 pm). To get there they have to get through Charlton who survived a crazy 4-4 aggregate draw against Doncaster.
The Addicks survived a comeback at home in the second leg of their semi-final play off. Charlton had taken a 2-1 win at the Keepmoat in the first and were red hot favourites to get through, given their tremendous home form. But Doncaster came back hard at them after conceding the first goal of the second leg at The Valley. Donny scored three unanswered goals to take a 3-2 advantage. However, a minute after they scored their third, their keeper fumbled a cross to let Charlton get a goal back immediately. The game went to penalties, Charlton edged it. During the course of the regular season, Sunderland took four points off the Addicks in their meetings. The Addicks are 11/10 to earn promotion* (betting odds taken from *** on May 17th, 2019 at 9:57 pm).
Derby v Aston Villa
Championship Play-Off Final
May 27th, 2019
3.00 pm kick off
Let’s not underestimate the importance of this one. This is one of the most stressful and at the same time richly rewarding matches in English football. One final shot to land a place in the Premier League next season. Aston Villa, lost in last season’s playoff final against Fulham. So they are back for another bite of the cherry as they look to end a three-year absence from the top flight. Villa held off their Midlands rivals West Brom in their semi-final effort, squeezing through on a penalty shootout. Villa are 6/5 favourites to win this final in 90 minutes* (betting odds taken from *** on May 17th, 2019 at 9:57 pm).
Derby looked down and out, trailing 2-0 on aggregate just before the halftime break in the second leg of this tie away at Leeds. But then they produced a miraculous turnaround, winning 4-3 on aggregate. Put that on top of the comebacks from Spurs and Liverpool in the Champions League (and the one almost pulled off by Doncaster), there have been some hugely dramatic fightbacks recently.
Derby are the 12/5 underdogs* (betting odds taken from *** on May 17th, 2019 at 9:57 pm) which is understandable considering that Frank Lampard’s men lost 3-0 and 4-0 against Villa in this season’s league campaign.
Chelsea v Arsenal
Europa League Final
Wednesday, May 29th, 2019
8.00 pm kick off
The Europa League Final features the two Premier League sides going at it. The Blues are the narrow 5/4 favourites against their London counterparts* (betting odds taken from *** on May 17th, 2019 at 9:57 pm). There is probably not going to be too much in it really, with the two of them having traded home wins in this season’s Premier League. However, there is going to be a little more importance on the game for Arsenal than there is for Chelsea. The Blues won the tournament back in 2013 in their only other previous Europa League campaign.
Chelsea have already secured a place in the UEFA Champions League next season. Arsenal have to win this fixture in order to get there too. So there is that extra little bit of pressure riding on them. The Gunners are trading at 21/10 underdogs for the game and that is because their form fell badly away at the end of the domestic season* (betting odds taken from *** on May 17th, 2019 at 9:57 pm). But there’s plenty of time for them to regroup and stand up to the challenge. Arsenal’s only previous experience of the Europa League final was in 2000, which they lost.
Tottenham v Liverpool
Champions League Final
Saturday, June 1st, 2019
8.00 pm kick off
It is a treat of another all-English European final, as Tottenham and Liverpool will be meeting up in the Champions League final. What a moment, what a night this is going to be for both of them. Liverpool got back to the final after an epic comeback story against Barcelona in the last round. The Reds fought back from a 3-0 first leg deficit to make it consecutive Champions League finals. They are 19/20 odds-on to win this year’s final* (betting odds taken from *** on May 17th, 2019 at 9:57 pm)
Twelve months ago they faced up to Real Madrid in Kiev and collapsed in a poor performance to lose 3-1 against the Spaniards. Will they have an easier time of things against Spurs? Tottenham defied their underdog status to come through the challenge of Manchester City in the quarterfinals. So they have held their nerve against English opposition already. They too then had a big fightback to do, scoring three goals in the second half of their second leg in Amsterdam against Ajax to prevail. The Lilywhites are once again underdogs as they are 13/8 To Lift The Trophy* (betting odds taken from *** on May 17th, 2019 at 9:57 pm).
Women’s World Cup
June 7th – July 7th, 2019
England’s Lioness will be lining up as one of the front runners for the 2019 Women’s World Cup. They are 6/1 odds to pick up the title* (betting odds taken from *** on May 17th, 2019 at 9:57 pm). Four years ago they made huge strides as they were losing semi-finalists. Can they go better this time around? There are some tough challenges in the mixer as well, with the USA and France being the joint-favourites at 7/2. Germany are the only other team at shorter odds than England at 11/2* (betting odds taken from *** on May 17th, 2019 at 9:57 pm)
CONCACAF Gold Cup
June 15th – July 7th, 2019
If you are looking further afield for some summer football betting action, then the Gold Cup is happening over in the CONCACAF (North and Central America’s version of the European Championships if you like). The tournament is hosted every couple of years and it is the United States who will go back as the reigning champion. They are 6/4 second-favourites for this year’s title, behind only Mexico who are at 11/8* (betting odds taken from *** on May 17th, 2019 at 9:57 pm).
Cubs vs. Nationals MLB Pick – May 19th
The Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals close out the weekend on Sunday Night Baseball at Nationals Park. Looking at the card today, this one certainly looks like the most attractive game to put on in primetime. Perhaps it would have been better if the Nationals had a good team, though. They go into the final game of the weekend with a record of 19-26.
The Nationals trail the Phillies by 7 games for 1st. That isn’t likely going to change much as the season progresses. They’re only likely to fall back even further, because I don’t think the Phillies or Braves have played their best baseball yet. Again, as I’ve said in the past, it isn’t so much of a case of no Bryce Harper, but more so a terrible bullpen and starting cast that has been erratic other than guys named Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. Even then, Scherzer hasn’t been as dominant as we’ve seen in the past.
Harper was awful last season around this time, similar to what he’s doing this year to open the season. So, to attribute their slow start to no Bryce Harper is ludicrous. Looking at bullpens isn’t the flashiest things to do for the average fan, though. The Nationals found a 5-2 win on Saturday after getting blasted by a score of 14-6 the day prior. Stephen Strasburg was on point as he went 8 innings, allowing just 4 hits and 1 run.
Going from Strasburg to Jeremy Hellickson in the rotation is part of the problem for the Nationals. Hellickson has been struggling mightily and hasn’t been the most reliable option for Washington this season. He had a productive 2018, but he’s one of those guys you wonder whether the floor is going to give out on him. Hellickson will try and get things under control this evening against the Cubs. He faces a red-hot Kyle Hendricks in this contest. Head below for our free Cubs vs. Nationals pick.
Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals Pick:
Betting odds provided by bovada.lv
Kyle Hendricks has been the hottest pitcher for the Cubs recently. If you’re not a Cubs’ fan or paying attention, his performances lately would have been easy to miss. Hendricks has been on fire with an ERA of 0.36 and 0.52 WHIP in his previous three games. Across his last 25 innings has given up only 1 run and 12 hits. The 7 runs he allowed against the Diamondbacks in Arizona must have woken him up.
Overall, Hendricks carries a 2.86 ERA and 1.15 WHIP into Sunday Night Baseball. His effort on the road has been less than adequate, though, with a 5.91 ERA. That said, it hasn’t mattered recently, as he had one of his best outings of the year in Cincinnati. He went 8 innings, allowing 1 run and only 3 hits against the Reds.
The Nationals go into Sunday with 4.47 runs scored per game, 19th in MLB. Well of the pace that the Cubs are scoring at with an average of 5.4 per game for 4th in the majors. The real downside for the Nationals has been their bullpen, though.
They’ve had heaps of issues getting outs and helping out their friends who start games. Washington are 30th with a horrific ERA of 6.77 in 131.2 innings pitched. There are a lot of bad relievers in baseball and a lot of them belong in the Nats’ pen.
On the other side, the Cubs are 11th in the majors with an ERA of 3.94. Hellickson may not offer much help to his anemic bullpen in this one. He has been bashed around for a 6.28 ERA in his last three outings and has been awful at home with an 8.04 ERA and 1.79 WHIP. If you’re looking for an MLB pick to end your day on Sunday evening, expect the Cubs to close out the day with a win in Washington.
Giants vs. Diamondbacks MLB Pick – May 19th
The Arizona Diamondbacks look to respond on Sunday after an 8-5 loss yesterday. It was a completely different story on Friday, with the Diamondbacks pummeling the Giants for a 7-0 final. The Giants were able to move to 19-25 on the season, as they’re looking at a pretty tough season overall. Don’t expect much more than some wins here and there with more losses to show for their effort at the end of the season.
With three championships under their belt in the last decade, fans have nothing to complain about, though. It also helps that their rival, the Dodgers, are still looking for their first World Series since 1988. The Dodgers of course went to the World Series last season, but came up short against the Red Sox. It would be in the Giants’ best interest to hold a fire sale at the trade deadline this season.
There is no point in holding on to Madison Bumgarner at this point. He has done a lot for the Giants in his career here, but they could fetch a nice return for him in a trade. He’s certainly still a quality pitcher who could help a contender out. Bumgarner or not, the Giants aren’t going anywhere in the immediate future. Bumgarner has a no-trade list, so he has a bit of control over his next destination.
The Diamondbacks are likely in a position to unload their top pitcher as well. Zack Greinke may be able at the deadline, as the Diamondbacks are stuck influx between being a good team and a bad team. They are just average after losing Paul Goldschmidt in the offseason.
Arizona go into Sunday with a record of 25-21, which is good enough for 2nd in the NL West, though they’re still 4.5 back of the Dodgers. Drew Pomeranz is expected to start for the Giants, while Robbie Ray will get the first pitch for the D-Backs. Head below for our free Giants vs. Diamondbacks pick.
S.F. Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Pick:
Betting odds provided by bovada.lv
Drew Pomeranz will look to regain a rhythm against the Diamondbacks on Sunday. He is coming off an ugly performance against the Reds, which saw him go only 1.2 innings in Cincinnati. Pomeranz was hammered for 9 hits and 7 runs during that time. It included 3 home runs and 54 pitches in not even 2 innings on the bump. Including a recent outing against the Dodgers, he’s allowed 4 home runs and 10 runs in 5.1 innings of play. It goes without saying that his ERA has ben a mess recently, with an ERA of 7.71 and 1.63 WHIP in his previous three tilts.
Pomeranz has a solid history against the Diamondbacks. However, he hasn’t been a solid pitcher since 2016 and 2017. After compiling ERA’s of 2.47 and 3.32, Pomeranz has fallen off the wage, posting an ERA of 6.08 a season ago and he goes into Sunday with a 5.93 ERA. His lone win this season came against the Blue Jays. Note that the Diamondbacks have been killing left-handed pitching at a clip of .292. Conversely, the Giants are hitting just .216 vs lefties. This is battle of lefties between Pomeranz and Robbie Ray.
Ray has seen better success in the early stages of 2019 on the diamond. He heads into this matchup with an ERA of 3.14 and a 1.10 ERA in his last three outings. The opposition of scored just 2 runs on Ray in his last 16 innings of work. He’s been slightly better at home, with an ERA of 3.00 as opposed to a 3.21 on the road. Other than one bad start against the Braves in Atlanta, Ray hasn’t allowed more than 3 runs in a start. In his last showing against the Giants, he gave up only 2 runs and 5 hits in Arizona a year ago. I’d consider giving the Diamondbacks a look on Sunday with Ray hot and Pomeranz lost and confused.
Royals vs. Angels MLB Pick – May 19th
The KC Royals hope to find a win before leaving Anaheim on Sunday after dropping the first two games in a three-game series. It’s not just Anaheim, the Royals have been stumbling for a couple of weeks now, and for that matter, the entire season. Expected? Yeah, for sure, so it softens the blow of playing this badly. The Royals are still in a honeymoon period after winning a World Series in 2015 as well.
Honeymoon in the sense that fans are going to be way more tolerant of this type of play after winning a World Series a few years ago. The Royals were such a bad team for so long that they’re going to get some extra time to become a good team again. If this were the Red Sox, Dodgers, or any of the other big market teams, yeah, not happening. The Red Sox are already getting heat from their fans after a slow start, a year after winning the World Series.
For the Royals, they were just unable to retain talent that helped them win the championship. Their bullpen was on fire during that era and they wanted to get paid after the fact. The Royals are not large spenders like other teams, and retaining them in a smaller market was going to be difficult. All-Star Salvador Perez is still a Royal, an important member of the 2015 team, but he is gone for the season with TJ surgery.
The Royals at least made it interesting late last night. They were down 5-0 by the end of the 6th inning, but scored 3 in the top of the 8th. With runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs, Jorge Soler came up short to cut into the lead some more. Ty Buttrey fanned Soler to extinguish the threat. Head below for our free Royals vs. Angels pick.
K.C. Royals vs. L.A. Angels Pick:
Betting odds provided by bovada.lv
Shohei Ohtani is back in the Angels lineup, making his return on May 7th against the Tigers. It may take him a bit of time to get warmed up and hot, but he’s been doing a solid job coming off the IL cold. Note that Ohtani has recorded a hit in six straight games after starting 0-for-7 at the dish.
Pairing him next to Mike Trout makes all of the difference for the Angels. It was painful looking at Trout making things happen, only to be letdown by the next hitter. When Ohtani truly gets hot, they’re going to make for a fearful 1-2 punch in the lineup. The Angels have won 7 of 11 games since he came back.
Tyler Skaggs will see the starting spot for this one on Sunday. Skaggs has been reliable in only one place for the Angels this season. That would be Angel Stadium, where Skaggs has performed well vs what he’s done as a visitor in other ballparks.
Skaggs owns an ERA of 6.56 on the road, while he has looked sharp for a 2.19 ERA and 1.05 WHIP at home in Anaheim. He has yet to lose at home in the 2019 season. With the loss last night, the Royals are now 6-15 on the road for last in the major leagues.
Skaggs has been an absolute force against this Royals in his career. Against this current Royals team, Skaggs has nailed them for a .170 batting average and no home runs in 47 at-bats. In those 47 plate appearances, Skaggs has allowed just 1 run to the Royals. He should be able to handle their lineup again Sunday.
The Royals have averaged just 3.68 runs per game in their last three games, while the Angels have scored 5.93 per 9 innings. I like the Angels to be able to take care of Danny Duffy and get solid support from Skaggs on the bump. Look for the Angels to complete the week and send the Royals another loss.
Mets vs. Marlins MLB Pick – May 19th
The New York Mets are facing a sweep at the hands of the worst team in Major League Baseball. The Mets fell to the Marlins again on Saturday, as they took a 2-0 loss behind a tremendous performance by Pablo Lopez. The Mets got just 1 hit against Lopez and the Marlins’ bullpen. They were held off the scoreboard a day after losing, 8-6, on Friday.
That was with Jacob deGrom on the mound, who took a beating against the worst offense in baseball. Robinson Cano was perhaps the biggest loser of the night after he walked to 1st base on a double-play ball. Cano was called out and he said that he thought there was 2 outs on the board. I don’t think that changes much, he should have finished the play regardless.
It doesn’t help that Cano has been performing below expectations and burning a hole in the Mets’ wallet. The Mets made an effort to bolster their offense in the offseason and landed on Cano. I didn’t think it was the best deal for the Mets then and it doesn’t look good now.
They likely could have found something cheaper who was hungrier to play well. With Cano, he’s checking out while collecting a nice paycheck. He had his lazy moments when he was in his prime with the Yankees, but you have to work for it a little more at an older age.
At 20-24, the Mets are slowly falling backwards after a pretty nice start in April. The Phillies and Braves are pulling away from the pack, but it’s still not even the end of May so let’s keep things in perspective. Meanwhile, the Marlins are 12-31 despite beating the Mets the last two games.
So, this is going to be fairly embarrassing if the Mets take a sweep against the Marlins. Pressure is going to be on Noah Syndergaard to get the Mets out of this slump. Dating back to their last game against the Nationals, the Mets are on a four-game losing streak. Head below for our free Mets vs. Marlins pick.
N.Y. Mets vs. Miami Marlins Pick:
Betting odds provided by bovada.lv
You can’t get swept by the Marlins and expect to be playing fall baseball. It’s only one series, but for a fringe team like the Mets, this kind of series adds up at the end of the season. If they keep playing like this, it won’t be long before they turn into a dumpster fire and no longer a team on the fringe. Syndergaard has been looking better, but is still well off pace of where he must be. deGrom has been hit and miss, so it hasn’t been smooth sailing for what was a reliable rotation, either.
Syndergaard owns an ERA of 4.74 and 1.23 WHIP overall, though has been sharper with a 2.35 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in his previous three outings. In his most recent start, Syndergaard held the Nationals to 4 hits and 2 runs across 8 innings of work.
The Mets’ pitching shouldn’t have had issues against the Marlin offense with deGrom on the mound either, but they clearly did with 8 runs allowed in total. Steven Matz was on shaky ground with 5 hits and 2 runs allowed in 3.2 innings, but the bullpen kept the Mets in the game yesterday.
In 58 at-bats, the Marlins have failed to hit a long ball against Syndergaard. They are hitting .241 with a .279 OBP and haven’t been able to bring home many runs against him. As a team, they’ve notched 4 RBI’s against Syndergaard during that time. Sandy Alcantara enters struggling in his previous three outings.
He goes into Sunday with a 6.19 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, and .408 OBA in his last three. He’s allowed a total of 13 runs in his last 16 innings on the bump. The Mets have an impressive .368 OBP and 2 home runs against Alcantara in 49 at-bats. I think they show up in an attempt to avoid embarrassment against the Marlins on Sunday. A 5-2 or 4-2 win for the Mets to salvage something out of this series in Miami looks good.
Mr Fixit’s Top Tips: Bookies running for Cove-r
AFTER a miserable May my two main bets won on Saturday but the others were losers.
Cove were my Super Single at 10-11 and they won 3-0 at Berwick for a 7-0 aggregate success that earned them a place in the SPFL for the first time.
It was clear from the first leg there was a huge gulf between the teams and I should have taken them -1 as the Super Single back then. However, my knowledge of Highland League football isn't extensive although I do know Berwick are rubbish.
Watched the highlights of the first leg and from what I saw Cove will be pushing for promotion from League Two next season.
My Top Treble won at 18-5 thanks to St Mirren as well as Hamilton +1 and Espanyol +1 so maybe I should have been braver as they all notched straight wins.
I was disappointed with the goals trebles, especially the German one which was beaten by Borussia M'gladbach. I expected a load of goals on the final day of the Bundesliga and Gladbach were one of only three teams not to score with Wolfsburg top scorers with eight.
Bayern Munich duly wrapped up the title with a crushing 5-1 win at home to Eintracht Frankfurt and I tipped Bayern and both to score.
The moneyback fivefold was looking good until Getafe conceded a late equaliser at home to Villarreal as Valencia clinched the fourth Champions League place in La Liga.
Well done to all the winners including Greg, HullShaker and macca with his FA Cup Final goals shout.
The focus on Sunday is on the Scottish Premiership and Serie A with other games dotted about the Continent.
Kilmarnock and Aberdeen are fighting it out for a Europa League spot although both will make it in if Celtic as expected beat Hearts in the Scottish Cup Final next Saturday.
Killie face the tougher test at home to a Rangers side trying to end the season with seven successive wins.
The sides have met six times this season with Rangers winning three and drawing twice and I can see another stalemate in what is likely to be Steve Clarke's last game in charge of a club he has reinvented before taking charge of Scotland.
Killie are 10-3 with *** and to claim the win that will clinch third spot while Gers are 10-11 at McBookie with the draw 5-2.
Hopefully it's a good contest with a few goals and I fancy a score draw at 4-1 with BetVictor. Kevinmac has posted a full Killie vs Rangers preview.
Aberdeen haven't lost to Hibs this season – two wins and two draws – and I like their chances at 13-10 with Unibet against a side likely to have their feet off the gas.
The other game is a cup final rehearsal between Celtic and Hearts but teams tomorrow will much different from next Saturday with many stars rested. This is one game where bets shouldn't be placed until line-ups are revealed.
In Italy Inter, Atalanta, Milan and Roma are fighting for two Champions League places. Atalanta head to champions Juventus and Inter are at runners-up Napoli. Difficult games but against sides with nothing to play for.
Milan have the easiest task at home to relegated Frosinone while Roma played last night.
Empoli v Torino and Parma v Fiorentina and are the big games at the wrong end of the table.
Was working late on the Sunday Mail so will put up tips in the morning – and maybe add something from the final round of the US PGA Championship as my antepost tip Brooks Koepka defends his massive lead.
Remember to check welovebetting for their video chat and tips.
*Stake back as free bet for 1 wrong
New York Mets at Miami Marlins MLB Pick – May 18th
We nailed a big one last night when we backed the Pittsburgh Pirates as significant underdogs in San Diego, against the Padres. The Pirates rotation has been decimated with injuries, and their bullpen was certainly feeling the pains of overuse. So, I knew that they were going to ride starter Jordan Lyles as far as he would take them, and I really liked Lyles chances to shut down what had been a very poorly hitting Padres team.
And that is exactly what happened. Lyles was dominant as he tossed seven innings of one-run ball while racking up twelve strikeouts. The Pirates bullpen did their best job of trying to blow the game after hitting the bottom of the ninth with a 5-1 lead but eventually managed to hold on, and we cashed our ticket with a jumbo payout.
Being able to find spots like this one where you can take advantage of bad numbers is key to long term baseball betting success. There are lots of spots where a team laying -152, like the Padres were last night, is very reasonable. But I am not sure I am ever going to want to back this Padres team that can’t hit, with a guy like Joey Lucchesi on the mound, laying all that wood. We will celebrate the nice win and get right back at it today. For today’s pick, I will head to Miami where the Marlins host the Mets.
The New York Mets are in Miami Saturday for game two of a three-game series with the Marlins. The Mets have been on shaky ground as of late, as they have gone just 4-4 in their last eight games. That includes dropping game one of this series last night, 8-6. The Mets are hoping to pick up the win today to keep pace in the uber-competitive NL East, where they are in third place, four and a half games back of the first place Philadelphia Phillies.
For the Marlins, this season has been a complete disaster thus far, and it doesn’t look like it is going to get better any time soon. Miami has the worst record in all of baseball, and by quite a wide margin. Their .262 winning percentage would be one of the worst ever if the season ended today. The Marlins had lost ten of their previous eleven games before picking up the win last night in game one against the Mets.
Starting today for the Mets is Steven Matz (3-2 3.86 ERA), and for the Marlins it is Pablo Lopez (2-5 5.93 ERA). The game total over-under is set at seven and a half runs. The Mets are -119 road favorites. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 PM PST from Marlins Park in Miami.
When you quickly glance at Steven Matz’s stats, they don’t seem all that impressive. But when you dig a little deeper, you might notice that this guy has actually been quite good this season, besides one awful start. That awful start came against the NL East Division-leading Philadelphia Phillies and saw him get blasted for eight runs without recording an out.
Yeah, that was a rough day at the park for Matz and the Mets. But in his other six starts, he has been very good. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of those games and has allowed two or fewer runs in five out of the six. I know you can’t just throw out that rough outing against Philly, but if you could, Matz would have an ERA south of two runs. And when you look at this Marlins lineup, this should be the softest team he has faced all season long.
The Marlins are dead last in the majors in runs scored. They are dead last in slugging percentage. Dead last in home runs. And dead last in on-base percentage. To say that this offense is bad would be an understatement. They are dreadful. And they are going to have their hands full today against Matz.
In his last start, Pablo Lopez started against these very same New York Mets. He gave up ten runs in just three innings of work, including giving up three home runs. It was by far the worst start of the young man’s career. But struggling has been something that Lopez has gotten used to this year as he has allowed four runs or more in a start in four out of his eight starts. The Marlins have lost six out of his last seven starts.
This number doesn’t make any sense to me at all. Yeah, the Mets aren’t world beaters by any means, but they are a decent team that should hover right around the .500 mark all season long. And to see them as barely favored against a Marlins team that could end up being historically bad, is quite shocking. I did take a quick look at the run line, and it is offering us an attractive +137. But that fifty-six cents of premium is a little light for what I like to get when I lay that run and a half, so I will stay away from it, even though this game could easily end up in a blowout.
I’ll back the Mets in his one, laying just a little bit of wood at -119, and feel like I am certainly on the right side of things. Give me the New York Mets today in game two at -119!
The Bet: New York Mets -119
PLACE YOUR BET!
UFC Fight Night 152 Betting Tips
Posted: May 18, 2019
It’s Saturday which means a UFC event.
UFC Fight Night 152, or UFC on ESPN+10, takes place on May 18th, 2019 from Rochester, New York. This will be the first time that UFC has taken place in Rochester.
The main event is Rafael Dos Anjos versus Kevin Lee.
Other notable bouts on the main card include Megan Anderson vs Felicia Spencer and Charles Oliveira vs Nik Lentz.
On the prelims, Patrick Cummins vs Ed Hermans and Aspen Ladd vs Sijara Eubanks is on there as well as quite a few others.
Hopefully it’ll be a decent show. With no NHL action tonight I’ll be focused on just this and the playoffs.
BTW how bad was Sage Norcutts KO yesterday? Ugh. Absolutely brutal.
Let’s get to the predictions:
UFC Fight Night 152 Bets:
Kevin Lee to win (+100). I hope this isn’t the case – I really do. If Lee wins, it will no doubt be a dull fight where he refuses to stand and bang and instead grapples his way to victory. RDA can’t defend takedowns and if you’re Kevin Lee you know how to take this one. This is Kevins fight to lose and he is a great price here honestly as long as he sticks to the game plan.
Trevin Giles to win (-150). This is one where you may want to throw a heavy favourite on and parlay it. Danny Roberts or Patrick Cummins maybe. Cummings is an impressive fighter and is durable however he dominated at Welterweight due to his size. He doesn’t have that at middleweight. Giles hasn’t fought in awhile which is why he’s only a slight favourite. I just think the weight class will be an issue for Cummings.
Felicia Spencer to win (+180). Always like looking for at least one underdog to win, and this is the one. She is great at wrestling and if this one goes to the ground it’s all freaking over. Megan Anderson will have to hope she can get a lucky counter or something when Felicia goes to take her down. Only way I can see it going down unless Spencer attempts to stand and bang or something. Feenom is a freaking beast and I can see her making Megan tap out.
Grant Dawson to win (-140). I enjoyd Dawsons performance against Erosa and you have to figure he was a bit rusty there. Dawson is solid at finishing and also has solid wrestling. I see this being one where Dawson just takes him down early and pounds his way to a victory or takes it via submission early on. Another one where Trizano is better on the feet but if Dawson sticks to the game plan, it should be easy enough for him honestly. I mean we saw in Trizanos fights against Pena and Giannetti how to beat him – grapple him and control him on the ground. He looked soft when that happened and although he overcame them, I think Dawson is smart enough to take this one.
Stats Value – Destination Denmark for Sunday goals
OUR Stats Value column returns to WLB as we aim to pinpoint the best daily stats bets according to the data. Here's Sunday's value selection.
Roskilde v Fredericia | Sunday 19th May 2019, 12:45
Roskilde have seen 12/15 (80%) of their home league games feature winning Over 2.5 Goals bets, with games averaging 3.27 goals per-game.
Fredericia have seen 11/15 (73%) of their away league games feature winning Over 2.5 Goals, with games averaging 3.00 goals per-game.
Collectively, these two clubs have seen 3.14 goals per-game on average in their combined home/away league games, with Over 2.5 Goals banking in 23/30 (77%) of those encounters – that would percentage success rate that would imply odds of 3/10.
We can back Over 27.5 Goals at 8/11 with Marathon in Denmark on Sunday. This selection would see us make a half-stakes profit should exactly three goals be scored with a full winner paid out should four or more goals be scored.
Roskilde v Fredericia – Over 2.75 Goals (8/11 Marathon)
18 May 2019 Betting Tips
Event date(s): 18/9 May 2019
Event(s): Football, Rugby, Tennis
Hi all, last weekend of various seasons today including football in a few countries plus rugby, hence the reason for the tips! But first…
If you fancy a bet on the showcase of English football, the FA cup final, then I’ve teamed up with fansbet who have provided a betting preview. Please take a look, hopefully it’ll give you some pointers as to where to put your hard earned $s. Let me know if you like the article, if so then I’ll make sure that more follow!
Fansbet FA Cup Preview
18 May 2019 Football Spain Celta v Vallecano – Celta to have most corners….Odds 1/1 (2.00)….Bookmaker Bwin….Rating 3*
18 May 2019 Rugby Super Rugby Stormers v Crusaders – Stormers win race to 10….Odds 10/3 (4.33)….Bookmaker Will Hill….Rating 2*
18 May 2019 Rugby England Exeter v Northampton – Total Points under 51.5….Odds 1.90….Bookmaker Netbet Nigeria/Netbet….Rating 3*
18 May 2019 Rugby League England Warrington v Hull – Hull +12….Odds: 1.91…..Bookmaker 1xbet (bonus code is 1x_29234)…..Rating 3*
18 May 2019 Rugby England Worcester v Saracens – Total Points Over 57.5….Odds: 1.83…..Bookmaker 1xbet (bonus code is 1x_29234)…..Rating 4*
19 May 2019 Tennis ATP Gulbis v Nishioka – Gulbis to win….Odds 2/1 (3.00)….Bookmaker Will Hill….Rating 2*
Just a reminder, the telegram channel with daily tips can be found here t.me/betcrafttips and there is a chat group where members share tips and generally talk betting here: t.me/betcrafttipping. I’m also available on Whatsapp at +447584676158,
Here is an explanation of the bet rating system, loosely based on the ideal staking plan named Kelly Criterion.
Good luck from BetCraft
Juventus v Atalanta Predictions & Betting Odds – 19th May 2019
Juventus v Atalanta Betting Tips – Serie A, 20th May 7.30pm
Juventus are already starting their summer break it would seem. Having won the title their form has fallen away because they are disinterested and not playing at full strength or intensity. Atalanta are on the brink of a Champions League place next season and a win would guarantee them a top-four finish. They have it all to play for. Read our predictions for Juventus v Atalanta.
Juventus v Atalanta Betting Odds*
* (Betting Odds were taken from *** on May 15th, 2019 at 3:20 p.m.)
Table of Contents
Juventus News and Form
Juventus have sealed the league title already. Maybe that is reflected in their recent form which is just W1 D2 L2 in their last five Serie A games. Last weekend Juve suffered a 2-0 loss against Roma. It really isn’t a surprise that the intensity has gone from their game. The season is done for them and they are on a summer break.
Juventus have posted a home record of W15 D3 L0 this season, so that is one thing that they have to defend, their unbeaten home record. Their last home game was a 1-1 draw against Torino, the only home game they have failed to win in their last six in Turin.
Juventus have produced an average of over two goals per home game, conceding an under a goal per game at home on average. Juve have picked up a clean sheet in 44% of their home games this season.
They have not taken a clean sheet in any of their last six games, home and away combined. They have been leading at half time in 10 of their 18 home games, and they have scored in each and every home game played. Juventus have earned the best home record this season in Serie A.
Juventus v Atalanta Head to Head
Atalanta earned a 2-2 draw in the league at home against Juve in December
Atalanta beat Juventus 3-0 in this season’s Coppa Italia
Juventus are W34 D12 L5 in the overall head to head against Atalanta
Juventus are on a ten-match winning streak at home against Atalanta in all competitions
Key-Facts – Juventus v Atalanta
- Juve have won just one of their last five league games
- Atalanta are the top scorers in the entire division
- Atalanta are on a four match winning streak in the top flight
Atalanta News and Form
It has been some red hot form from Atalanta this season, going undefeated in their last eleven Serie A fixtures. They have gone unbeaten in their last five away games. Atalanta are on a four-match winning streak at the moment and start the weekend in fourth place, heading towards the Champions League next season.
If they get a win in this one on the weekend, then they will guarantee that top four finish. At least they are going up against a Juventus side who are not in a competitive mood at the moment, and Atalanta have a big thing going for them in that they are the top scorers in the league this season. Their overall away record is a brilliant W10 D3 L5.
Atalanta have scored an average of 2.2 goals per away game this season and 72% of their road fixtures have made it over 2.5 goals. They have produced a superb W4 D1 record in their last five away games, with the draw in that sequence coming at Inter Milan. They have only managed a clean sheet in 17% of their away games, with six of their ten away wins coming by a margin of at least two goals.
Atalanta have scored 65% of their away goals in the second period of games, while they have conceded 62% of their away goals after the halftime break. Atalanta have the third best away record in the entire division, with only the top two of Juventus and Napoli having done better than them on the road.
Juventus v Atalanta Tips & Odds
Over 2.5 goals at 8/11
Atalanta – Draw Double Chance at 11/20
* (Betting Odds were taken from *** on May 15th, 2019 at 3:20 p.m.)
Juventus v Atalanta Predictions
Atalanta to win: You have to imagine that Atalanta will be on the front foot in this one. Juventus have switched off the for the season and can make a good run at three points in this one. They certainly carry enough of a scoring threat to do just that. Away win.
Stats Value: Entertainment expected in Swedish showdown on Monday
OUR Stats Value column returns to WLB as we aim to pinpoint the best daily stats bets according to the data. Here's Monday's value selection.
Brommapojkarna v Jonkoping | Monday 20th May 2019, 18:00
Brommapojkarna have seen 4/4 (100%) of their home league games feature winning Both Teams To Score bets with matches averaging 3.50 goals per-game.
Jonkoping have seen 3/4 (75%) of their away league games feature winning Both Teams To Score bets with matches averaging 3.50 goals per-game.
Collectively, these two clubs have seen an average of just 3.50 goals per-game in their respective home/away matches and paid out in the Both Teams To Score column in 7/8 (88%) outings.
We can back Both Teams To Score at 4/5 with *** in Sweden on Monday.
Brommapojkarna v Jonkoping – Both Teams To Score (4/5 ***)
Twins vs. Mariners MLB Pick – May 18th
The Minnesota Twins are red-hot and continue to win, pulling away from the Cleveland Indians while doing it. Pulling away for a divisional lead doesn’t look like much now, but the Twins are developing a pretty nice cushion for when the Indians decide to go on a run. I don’t think it’s going to be this easy for the Twins all season. They’re likely going to have to deal with the Indians still, but a 5.5-game lead at this point looks pretty nice.
We waited for the Twins to go on a run and catch up to the Indians in 2018. That never happened and the Indians romped to a divisional crown. Maybe we see the same thing with the Twins this season? The Indians were embarrassed with a 5-1 loss against the Orioles on Friday night. Though, I see them having something in the tank to make the AL Central a lot more interesting than last season.
With a 7-1 win over the Mariners last night, the Twins are winners in four straight games. They advanced to 29-15 on the season, while the Mariners are sitting in the backseat of the AL West with a record of 22-25. The Astros have everything under control at 30-15 and are likely going to walk to the finish line. The Angels and the Rangers are the next closest in the division with an 8.5-game deficit.
There isn’t a simple fix for the Mariners. They whiffed on the Robinson Cano deal, and with him gone, the Mariners are still a team lost without an identity. They used to have pitching, but zero offense and now there isn’t enough of either. It’s a sad way for Felix Hernandez to close out the remaining years of his career. Hernandez is gone for 4-6 weeks with a lat strain. Wade LeBlanc will get the starting nod for the Mariners in Seattle on Saturday night. Ace Jose Berrios will counter for the Twins. Head below for our free Twins vs. Mariners pick.
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners Pick:
Betting odds provided by bovada.lv
Jose Berrios was expected to be a productive member of the starting rotation for the Twins this season. That’s been the case for the last two years and he was looking for a bump into an All-Star spotlight. He is currently on pace for his best season yet after posting an ERA of 3.84 a season ago.
Berrios enters Saturday with a 3.05 ERA and solid record of 6-2. He is coming off his worst start of the year, as he got dispatched by the Angels for 12 hits and 5 runs in 5.2 innings. It was unlike Berrios, who has been lights out otherwise. It certainly skewed his numbers in the wrong direction, but he is still looking good with a 3.05 ERA.
Berrios has allowed 3 or less runs in seven of nine outings this season. In six of nine he’s given up 2 or less runs. The Mariners haven’t had much success at all getting to Berrios in his career. In 64 at-bats, they are hitting just .203 with 3 home runs.
Kyle Seager is responsible for two of them and he is not active in the lineup. Edwin Encarnacion has hit the other home run, though that’s his only hit in 12 at-bats against Berrios. Seager is one of the Mariners best hitters against Berrios, but he is going through rehab trying to get back on the diamond.
With him gone, this lineup is hitting well below .200 against Berrios. He should be able to handle this Mariners team who have suddenly gone cold after a hot start for the offense. They’ve scored just 3.25 runs per game across their previous eight games.
Conversely, the Twins have scored an average of 6 runs per game during that time and are 4th overall in the major leagues with 5.45 per game. They should do fine against Wade LeBlanc, who has been average this season and bad at home. Note that he holds an ERA of 5.40 and 1.90 WHIP in Seattle this season. Look for the Twins to make it another win on Saturday over the Mariners.
Scottish Play Off’s: Clyde to make home advantage count
IT may be the end of the season but there are still loads of games with Scottish Premiership, play offs and an FA cup final to get stuck into + full cards from the Bundasliga and Ligue 1.
I'll be focusing on the Scottish games as Clyde host Annan Athletic in the Division two play off final. Its advantage Annan as they travel to Broadwood with a narrow 1-0 lead to protect having edged out the Bully Wee in the first leg.
Clyde vs Annan Athletic 3pm
It could have been so different for Clyde hadn't David Goodwillie missed a 1st half penalty at 0-0. That miss proved costly as they ended up going down 1-0 at an Annan side who have ended the season in terrific shape.
Clyde will be delighted to have the 2nd leg at home having turned Broadwood into a fortress this season. They've won 10 of their last 11 home games and have scored 14 goal in their last 4 here.
Manager Danny Lennon can feel a bit aggrieved they didn't go up at champions having been deducted 4 points for playing an ineligible player earlier in that season. Thankfully for footballs integrity that deduction didn't cost them the league but it can't have helped.
Clyde have a terrific record at home against Annan – They are unbeaten in the last 10 meeting, winning 8 and drawing 2 , that coupled with the fact Clyde finished the league 8 points better off than Annan and Annan's record away against the leagues top sides is played six, won one, you have to fancy Clyde to edge this.
David Goodwillie has scored in his last 4 games at Broadwood and will be a strong fancy to net again to add to his 22 goals this season for Clyde
- Clyde to win
- 5/6 (***) (NAP)
Scottish Premier League:
Dundee vs St Mirren
Hamilton vs St Johnstone
Its a huge afternoon for St Mirren and Hamilton as they look to avoid a relegation play off with Dundee United.
The Accies have a one point lead going into todays final game of the season and know they must equal St Mirrens result to secure safety for another season.
St Mirren head to Dens knowing they must win and that should bode well for goals against an already relegated Dundee side.
St Johnstone are head and shoulders above Hamilton and that evident by the fact the Perth side are 22 points better off . St Johnstone may not have anything to play for but outside Celtic they probably have the best post split record over the last 5 or 6 seasons.
Should see goals at both matches
- Over 1.5 goals double
- 91/100 (Mararthonbet)
- Over 2.5 goals double
- 3/1 (***)